The Tour is heading North for the RBC Canadian Open again this year. For the first time since 2012, though, Hamilton Golf and Country Club will play host to a PGA Tour event. The course itself is a sub-7,000-yard, par-70 track. There are bentgrass greens here. There’s a creek that crosses nine of the holes here and 87 bunkers litter the course. If you’re interested in more trends, check out yesterday’s course preview article.
Vegas Values
Keegan Bradley ($42) and J.B. Holmes ($39) have significantly less win equity than the golfers in their price range this week. Most golfers surrounding them are somewhere in the 20/1 to 40/1 range but Bradley and Holmes are 66/1 and 100/1, respectively. Bradley hasn’t had a finish inside of the top 25 since the middle of March and Holmes hasn’t done even sniffed the top 60 of an event since Valentine’s Day.
Shane Lowry ($32) is at 40/1 while most golfers around him are at 66/1 and up. He’s been exceptional over his last two starts. Lowry has averaged nearly seven strokes gained tee to green and over 10 strokes total over that stretch.
Bud Cauley ($27) has the 41st highest salary but the 14th best odds to win this event. Cauley has been playing well over his past four starts. He is gaining more strokes in every single strokes gained category (besides putting) than his average dating back to 2014, per the RotoViz Splits App. While Cauley does have a missed cut in that stretch of four starts, he was mainly done in by poor putting at Colonial a few weeks back.
Price Pivots
Dustin Johnson ($51) and Rory McIlroy ($51) are tied as the most expensive golfers this week. The closest pivot off of DJ is a guy we mentioned already in Lowry. Another popular option this week, Scott Piercy ($40), showed up in his comp list, as well. Piercy won this event way back in 2012. He’s hitting more fairways and greens than Johnson over his past three starts, as well.
Justin Thomas ($49) is the next most expensive golfer on the slate. Tom Hoge ($20) is all the way down at min price but has a high sim score to JT. I’m not sure if that says more about Thomas or Hoge, but here we are. A look at Hoge’s game log shows a few finish positions that leave a bit to be desired. After four straight missed cuts, he’s bounced back with three straight made cuts. He hasn’t finished inside the top 30 in those starts but his ball striking is turning around. He’s gained an average of 2.8 strokes on approach over his last two starts. If he can get his putter going, we could see him with a solid finish in a field like this.
Image Credit: David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Justin Thomas.
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