Quail Hollow Club has played host to this event every year but one since the 2003 season teed off. The course itself is no joke as it is a par 71 that plays over 7,550 yards. For a more in-depth look at the course and trends for those who’ve performed well, check out the preview article here.

Vegas Misprices

As I wrote about a few weeks ago, finding winners is really important with the finish position bonuses that Yahoo! awards. With that being said, let’s take a look at a couple of prices that seem like good discounts relative to their betting odds.

Patrick Reed ($41) is priced about twice as long as Hideki Matsuyama ($41) and Paul Casey ($41) but they all somehow have the same Yahoo! price. Within that trio, Matsuyama and Casey scored above 0.95 in this week’s model compared to Reed’s 0.73. He’s played well here in the past, but the 2018 Masters champion hasn’t quite found his irons over the past month and a half, failing to hit two-thirds of his greens in regulation in four straight events now.

Joel Dahmen ($29) is being priced around 80-1 to win while almost everyone at $30 and below is well over 100-1 heading into the week. The lone exception to that is Kyoung-Hoon Lee ($20) who is at min-price this week despite sitting at 90-1. I don’t like throwing around the most overused “e” word in DFS, but that price is actually egregious. Over the past 24 rounds, he’s in the top 20 in this field in SG: Total and has scored the 36th most DK points. That’s not out of this world production, but it certainly warrants a price higher than $20.

Price Pivots

Rory McIlroy ($52) is the most expensive golfer of the week. If you’re not willing to pay all the way up, Jhonnatan Vegas ($33) is the closest comp in the field over their past three starts. I’m not here to tell you that McIlroy equals Vegas, but the stats are closer than you’d think. Vegas’ distance off the tee coupled with the fact that he’s averaging nearly 70% of greens in regulation over his past three starts should help him out at Quail Hollow. Vegas has averaged over two more SG: Tee To Green on par 71 courses above 7,450 yards than all other courses per the splits app.

Rickie Fowler ($47) is the next highest priced golfer in the field. Recently, the two closest comps are Charles Howell III ($39) and Keith Mitchell ($34). The decision between these two pivots is largely a decision based on risk tolerance. Howell is your relatively safe, cut-making option and Mitchell is more – shall we say – “volatile”. As far as course fit goes, I’d lean towards Mitchell if we’re talking about a GPP option because of his distance. Over the past two years, he’s averaged more SG: Tee to Green on par 71 courses above 7,450 yards than all other courses per the splits app.

Model Results for Yahoo! - Wells Fargo Championship