We’re back stateside again this week for the eighth installation of the RSM Classic. It’s a bit of a different week as golfers will play two courses in the same event. The field will head to the Sea Island Resort to play both the Seaside and Plantation courses. They’ll play both courses before the cut and then turn their attention to Seaside for both of the weekend rounds. If you’re curious as to how each course has played historically and want to dive into the stats, check out yesterday’s article.
Today, let’s take a look at who’s going to be popular this week and why. Then, we’ll wrap up with our ownership projections. Keep in mind, that these are updated a few times during the week, so check back Wednesday night for the final run of the model.
CHECKING THE CHALK
From time to time, we have a week where people are hesitant to go all in at the top and trend towards a more balanced approach. My first run through of projections seem like this week may be headed that way. Five of the highest seven owned golfers in my first run all come from the $9,000 range. I would be shocked if that’s actually how it works out but as things stand right now, the following golfers are receiving most of the buzz:
- Kevin Kisner ($9,300)
- C.T. Pan ($9,700)
- Russell Henley ($9,500)
- Zach Johnson ($9,000)
- Luke List ($9,200)
People may have soured on List last week who missed the cut at 14 percent GPP ownership. If people flock towards the $9,000 range, that might make some intriguing higher priced options at lower ownership. Even if that’s true, I’m hard pressed to believe that Webb Simpson ($11,800) or Cameron Champ ($10,900) will see lower ownership regardless of what happens in the $9,000 range.
Ownership in the $8,000 range could be reasonably flat, as well. Joaquin Niemann ($8,900), Harold Varner ($8,800), and Sam Ryder ($8,600) will most likely lead the way there, opening up a few GPP pivots that we’ll get to later. Niemann has made every cut since the second week of June. Varner has had three top-15 finishes and Ryder is fourth in DK points with a couple of top-five finishes during the fall swing so far.
The sub-$8,000 range is shaping up to have a few chalky options as well. Bud Cauley ($7,900) is one of those popular options. He had a top ten finish here last season and seems to be finding some form more recently as well. Cauley’s hit over 70 percent of greens in regulation in each of the past two weeks. Stewart Cink ($7,700), Kramer Hickok ($7,400), and Anders Albertson ($7,300) should soak up some decent ownership as well.
GPP PIVOTS
Bronson Burgoon ($7,700) is an interesting option at the same price as a chalky Cink. Gamelog watchers will note that he missed the cut in Las Vegas a couple of weeks ago, but a deeper dive shows some encouraging signs. He couldn’t quite find a rhythm out in the desert, but it was largely due to a stone cold putter. Burgoon hit 75 percent of greens in regulation but needed 62 putts to get through 36 holes.
In the $8,000 range, Whee Kim ($8,400) has made seven straight cuts. He’s hit at least 75 percent of greens in regulation in three of his past four starts. Kim just hasn’t been able to put four rounds together over his past two starts with three rounds in the 60s but one in the 70s that puts him out of contention.
Ownership looks pretty flat up at the top, but Chesson Hadley ($10,100) could go slightly under-owned relative to his ball-striking. Hadley has hit at least 53 greens in regulation in each of the past three events. He’s another guy that has struggled with the putter in spurts, but the safe play is always to bet on ball-striking to continue.
OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS
Name | DK$ | Projection |
---|---|---|
Webb Simpson | 11800 | 17.4 |
Cameron Champ | 10900 | 14.1 |
J.J. Spaun | 10400 | 11.5 |
Chesson Hadley | 10100 | 10.5 |
Lucas Glover | 9900 | 15.9 |
Cheng Tsung Pan | 9700 | 21.2 |
Russell Henley | 9500 | 15.2 |
Austin Cook | 9400 | 11.1 |
Kevin Kisner | 9300 | 20.7 |
Luke List | 9200 | 11.8 |
Charles Howell III | 9100 | 10.2 |
Zach Johnson | 9000 | 11.9 |
Joaquin Niemann | 8900 | 13.2 |
Harold Varner | 8800 | 10.2 |
Denny McCarthy | 8700 | 5 |
Sam Ryder | 8600 | 16.2 |
Chris Kirk | 8500 | 9.9 |
Meen Whee Kim | 8400 | 5.5 |
Peter Uihlein | 8300 | 7.9 |
Jim Furyk | 8200 | 11.4 |
Jamie Lovemark | 8100 | 6.8 |
Sung-Jae Im | 8000 | 10.9 |
Brian Harman | 8000 | 8.7 |
Bud Cauley | 7900 | 14.1 |
Patrick Rodgers | 7900 | 4.6 |
Richy Werenski | 7800 | 7.2 |
Bill Haas | 7800 | 5.7 |
Stewart Cink | 7700 | 16.8 |
Bronson Burgoon | 7700 | 5.9 |
Brice Garnett | 7600 | 5.4 |
Michael Thompson | 7600 | 5.5 |
Padraig Harrington | 7600 | 2.5 |
Keith Mitchell | 7500 | 11.4 |
Brian Gay | 7500 | 8.8 |
Ryan Armour | 7500 | 7.7 |
Benjamin Silverman | 7500 | 6.8 |
Kramer Hickok | 7400 | 12.1 |
Nate Lashley | 7400 | 6.6 |
Nick Watney | 7400 | 5.2 |
Patton Kizzire | 7400 | 4.9 |
Adam Schenk | 7400 | 1.8 |
Anders Albertson | 7300 | 12.2 |
Talor Gooch | 7300 | 2.1 |
Roberto Castro | 7300 | 1.9 |
Scott Stallings | 7300 | 1.4 |
Aaron Baddeley | 7300 | 1.2 |
Jason Dufner | 7200 | 10.3 |
Andrew Landry | 7200 | 4.7 |
Sam Burns | 7200 | 3.1 |
Robert Streb | 7200 | 2.1 |
Nicholas Lindheim | 7200 | 1.6 |
David Hearn | 7200 | 1.5 |
Seth Reeves | 7100 | 4.2 |
Vaughn Taylor | 7100 | 3.9 |
Ollie Schniederjans | 7100 | 3.7 |
Kelly Kraft | 7100 | 3.4 |
Johnson Wagner | 7100 | 1.5 |
Matt Every | 7100 | 1.3 |
Henrik Norlander | 7000 | 4.1 |
Kevin Streelman | 7000 | 3.4 |
Hudson Swafford | 7000 | 2.2 |
Sung-Hoon Kang | 7000 | 2 |
Shawn Stefani | 7000 | 1.2 |
Graeme McDowell | 7000 | 1.2 |
Chad Campbell | 7000 | 1.1 |
Ted Potter Jr | 6900 | 6 |
Joel Dahmen | 6900 | 6.9 |
Corey Conners | 6900 | 5.9 |
Troy Merritt | 6900 | 2.2 |
JT Poston | 6900 | 2 |
Robert Garrigus | 6900 | 2.2 |
Ryan Blaum | 6900 | 1.5 |
Tom Hoge | 6900 | 1.3 |
Stephan Jaeger | 6800 | 5.4 |
Harris English | 6800 | 2.7 |
Brandon Harkins | 6800 | 1.8 |
Carlos Ortiz | 6800 | 1.7 |
Sean O'Hair | 6800 | 1.6 |
David Lingmerth | 6800 | 1.5 |
Mackenzie Hughes | 6800 | 1.4 |
Cameron Tringale | 6800 | 0.8 |
Peter Malnati | 6700 | 1.8 |
Sepp Straka | 6700 | 1.6 |
Alex Prugh | 6700 | 1.3 |
Matt Jones | 6700 | 1.1 |
Wyndham Clark | 6700 | 0.9 |
Ben Martin | 6700 | 0.9 |
Ben Crane | 6700 | 0.9 |
Wes Roach | 6700 | 0.8 |
Jonas Blixt | 6600 | 2.7 |
Trey Mullinax | 6600 | 1.8 |
Scott Langley | 6600 | 1.7 |
Davis Love III | 6600 | 1.2 |
Chase Wright | 6600 | 0.9 |
Sang-Moon Bae | 6600 | 0.8 |
Tyrone Van Aswegen | 6600 | 0.7 |
Fabian Gomez | 6600 | 0.7 |
Tom Lovelady | 6500 | 1.9 |
Jose De Jesus Rodriguez | 6500 | 1.9 |
Dominic Bozzelli | 6500 | 1.4 |
Alex Cejka | 6500 | 1.1 |
Scott Brown | 6500 | 1 |
Brian Stuard | 6500 | 0.9 |
Michael Kim | 6500 | 0.9 |
Ricky Barnes | 6500 | 0.7 |
Ernie Els | 6500 | 0.6 |
Hunter Mahan | 6400 | 1.5 |
Andres Romero | 6400 | 1.3 |
Jonathan Byrd | 6400 | 1.2 |
Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 6400 | 0.8 |
Retief Goosen | 6400 | 0.8 |
Julian Etulain | 6400 | 0.8 |
Curtis Luck | 6400 | 0.8 |
D.A. Points | 6400 | 0.8 |
Jim Knous | 6400 | 0.8 |
Sebastian Munoz | 6300 | 1.6 |
Jon Curran | 6300 | 1.3 |
J.J. Henry | 6300 | 1.1 |
Sam Saunders | 6300 | 1.1 |
Seamus Power | 6300 | 0.8 |
Martin Trainer | 6300 | 0.8 |
Martin Piller | 6300 | 0.8 |
Roger Sloan | 6300 | 0.8 |
Derek Fathauer | 6300 | 0.8 |
John Huh | 6200 | 1.9 |
Adam Svensson | 6200 | 1.5 |
Adam Long | 6200 | 0.8 |
Josh Teater | 6200 | 0.7 |
Max Homa | 6200 | 0.6 |
Jim Herman | 6200 | 0.6 |
Tommy Gainey | 6200 | 0.6 |
Brendon De Jonge | 6200 | 0.6 |
Eric Axley | 6200 | 0.6 |
Tyler Duncan | 6100 | 1.5 |
Chris Thompson | 6100 | 0.7 |
Brady Schnell | 6100 | 0.7 |
Joey Garber | 6100 | 0.7 |
Tim Herron | 6100 | 0.6 |
Cody Gribble | 6100 | 0.6 |
Jason Gore | 6100 | 0.6 |
John Chin | 6100 | 0.6 |
Dru Love | 6100 | 0.5 |
Wesley Bryan | 6000 | 1.2 |
Will MacKenzie | 6000 | 1 |
Kyle Jones | 6000 | 0.7 |
Lee Hodges | 6000 | 0.6 |
Henry Lebioda | 6000 | 0.6 |
Peter Jones | 6000 | 0.6 |
Garrett Barber | 6000 | 0.6 |
Ben Griffin | 6000 | 0.6 |
Fredrik Jacobson | 6000 | 0.6 |
Chad Collins | 6000 | 0.6 |