2017 Air Yards Projection Countdown | Mike Wallace – WR 33

Josh Hermsmeyer
May 18, 2017

Now that the draft is over I’m excited to report that I’ve finished my air yards model for NFL receivers.

Well-validated models are the best and most unbiased forecast of NFL receiver production there is.^[1]The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a tuned generalized linear model. Preprocessing steps included data normalization (centered and scaled), the elimination of near zero variance predictors, and principal component analysis transformation. The model data used were 838 observations of 35 predictors, including age, weight, previous season player volume and efficiency data, 3 year weighted player efficiency data, and previous season … Continue reading However there are things that they cannot capture that are important to consider.

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Footnotes[+]Footnotes[−]

Footnotes
↑1	The air yards model combined four separate machine learning models into one ensemble model. The models used included a Bayesian neural net, a nearest neighbors algorithm, a random forest algorithm and a tuned generalized linear model. Preprocessing steps included data normalization (centered and scaled), the elimination of near zero variance predictors, and principal component analysis transformation. The model data used were 838 observations of 35 predictors, including age, weight, previous season player volume and efficiency data, 3 year weighted player efficiency data, and previous season team passing volume and efficiency data. The dependent variable was fantasy points per game. The data were split 80/20 into training and test sets. 10 fold cross validation was performed. The measured R^2 on the held out data was 0.66.

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Josh Hermsmeyer

Air yards, Numbers Game, and predictive modeling.

Week 10 Air Yards: The Best Wide Receivers to Buy Low

Josh Hermsmeyer November 9, 2017

Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...