A few days ago Justin Winn wrote a piece about Sammie Coates that overall probably has a pretty good shot at seeming correct by the time the 2016 season is over. The reality is that any player drafted after about WR40 or so has really low odds of being a top 12 fantasy receiver by the end of the season. I mean odds in the five percent and lower range. And those later wide receivers are also longshots to even be top 24 receivers – perhaps somewhere in the five to 10 percent range depending on where they are drafted. So it would be possible to just say to avoid all of those players and you’re going to be right 90-95% of the time. You would be right so often as to seem that you were never wrong, and all you have to do is to bet against every late round pick.