Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Kevin Cole
April 27, 2015

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs that are viewed much more favorably by drafters than their receivers should provide less receiving competition and more opportunity for a rookie receiver. Unfortunately, we do not have a proxy for drafters’ prospective view of a team’s rushing game production like QB ADP is for the passing game. I decided that the team ranks for last year’s total running back production was a close substitute, as generally a QB’s ADP in the early offseason primarily reflects his team’s passing production from the prior year.

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Kevin Cole

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Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots for Rookie Wide Receivers

Kevin Cole April 5, 2017

A couple years ago, I attempted to create a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky and the Importance of Sample Size

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I was happy to see Rotoworld’s Josh Norris recognize the importance of sample size while recently predicting that the analytical wizards with the Cleveland Browns will prefer Deshaun Watson to Mitchell Trubisky come draft day. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...