Using Prediction Markets to Exploit Rookie Average Draft Position

Recently we were all standing around the RotoViz virtual water cooler, shooting the breeze on weighting prospect similarity variables, dealing with comment trolls,[1] and properly calculating draft equity,[2] when Fantasy Douche wondered aloud if Breshad Perriman’s redraft ADP is historically cheap considering his expected draft position. Around these parts there’s only one way to properly add to a discussion: dig through the data and put together some fancy looking visualizations. So, that’s what I did.

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Footnotes

Footnotes
↑1 This is my preferred method.
↑2 Get a glimpse of the newly added “Exposure” tab, part of our indispensable Best Ball ADP App

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The Tom Brady Halo Effect

Kevin Cole June 13, 2017

Winning in fantasy football isn’t as easy as the “just pick the right players” crowd would have you believe. Winning – not in a single league, but consistently – is the result of finding the overlooked advantages that together create a sustainable edge. I focus much of my analysis on price, where the market is telling us the collective wisdom of the crowd, and history can enlighten…...

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Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots for Rookie Wide Receivers

Kevin Cole April 5, 2017

A couple years ago, I attempted to create a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition…. Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in...

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I was happy to see Rotoworld’s Josh Norris recognize the importance of sample size while recently predicting that the analytical wizards with the Cleveland Browns will prefer Deshaun Watson to Mitchell Trubisky come draft day. … Membership Required You must be a member to access this content.View Membership LevelsAlready a member? Log in here...

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