The whole idea behind using an algorithm to project wide receivers to the NFL is that you can reduce error rates by looking at a player’s college record. College production isn’t a perfect predictor of pro success, it’s just the best one we’ve got and can probably beat a scouting model in a head to head competition. This fits with research done over the years in a number of fields where simple algorithms engage in a competition with human expert judgment and the best that expert human judgment can usually do is a tie. Having offered that context for thinking about algorithmic projections, and the obvious caveat that it won’t be right in every case – it’s just likely to beat an alternate method of picking wide receivers – I have below the Cordarrelle Patterson comparables. If it sounds like I’m qualifying before I even get there, it’s because I am. I couldn’t find any good comps for Patterson because his production numbers are underwhelming.
