calvinjohnson

The table below summarizes Expected Points and my efficiency metric Fantasy Points Over Par (FPOP) for WRs. Expected Points is the number of fantasy points that each of a receiver’s targets should have produced based on the average over 13 seasons of data for plays with the same line of scrimmage. For instance, a target from the other team’s 40 yard line (line of scrimmage) produces 1 fantasy point on average while a target from the other team’s 1 yard line produces 2.8 fantasy points on average. Then the difference between the average expectation and what actually happened is what I call FPOP. Larger numbers are more efficient, or more lucky in some cases. My thoughts after 4 weeks:

  • AJ Green leads the league in Expected Pts for WRs and yet he’s about 12 in Actual Points in standard leagues. He’s been below average in FPOP thus far although he’s getting passes from the same QB he always has and they should both be a year more experienced. That sort of doesn’t make sense on its face right? And yet I don’t know if there’s anything really actionable in Green’s subpar FPOP. You could try to trade for him but he’s #12 in WR scoring right now and if Green improves it’s likely not from an improving schedule (their schedule is a mix of good and bad going forward).
  • Kenbrell Thompkins’ FPOP has enjoyed a wild recovery. His efficient game on Sunday really helped. Now he’s just barely below average on a per attempt basis (although he’s catching passes from a QB that tends to make his receivers pretty efficient).
  • Kind of interesting that Andre Johnson has 120 more yards than Wes Welker and yet 6 fewer touchdowns.
  • On a per game basis Randall Cobb would be near the top in Expected Points. He’s seeing usage thus far at a rate that single GB receivers tend not to.
  • After week 2 DJax had 22 Expected Pts and 41 Actual. In the two weeks since he’s only added 14 Expected and 10 Actual. As I said after week 2, he’ll have some highs and lows, but CBs in the NFL have had a few years to figure out how to cover him. If I have to bet I would bet he finished the year closer to his career 0.17 FPOP/T than the .41 that he still sports even after two down weeks.
  • Whose offseason contract looks more idiotic based on usage – Mike Wallace or Dwayne Bowe? That’s a trick question.
  • Right now Tavon Austin and Emmanuel Sanders are battling it out for “Highest Usage Player Delivering the Shittiest Results”. Greg Little was a candidate for the award before he was benched. Actually I could see trying to pick up Tavon for cheap just to get the targets but then there’s also a chance he hits the waiver wire at some point. But I do like those targets he’s seeing (from a fantasy standpoint – from a real football standpoint the Rams can’t afford to waste any more plays given the punt-inducing performance of their run game).
PLAYERGMSTRGSRECSYDSTDSExp PtsActual PtsFPOP per TargetFPOPYPTCareer FPOP per Target
A.J. Green45026300354.4648-0.13-6.466.000.07
Cecil Shorts45226337053.3433.7-0.38-19.646.480.04
Julio Jones44833481250.2360.10.219.8710.020.37
Pierre Garcon44429339250.0845.9-0.09-4.187.700.01
Calvin Johnson44021312447.8655.20.187.347.800.22
Kenbrell Thompkins43915257346.9343.7-0.08-3.236.59-0.08
Wes Welker43626266646.2362.60.4516.377.39-0.03
Andre Johnson44734368045.6136.8-0.19-8.817.830.08
Julian Edelman44334319244.6743.9-0.02-0.777.42-0.10
Victor Cruz44326425443.2166.50.5423.299.880.34
Antonio Brown44232412243.1553.20.2410.059.810.02
Brandon Marshall44227348241.6646.80.125.148.29-0.03
Torrey Smith44221435141.1349.50.208.3710.360.29
Demaryius Thomas43829390439.85630.6123.1510.260.33
Dez Bryant43623282439.7152.20.3512.497.830.38
Randall Cobb33321290239.07410.061.938.790.27
Emmanuel Sanders43820231038.0223.1-0.39-14.926.08-0.16
Eric Decker43524340137.56400.072.449.710.26
Vincent Jackson44117292037.5429.2-0.20-8.347.120.31
Reggie Wayne43423305237.1842.50.165.328.970.10
Steve Johnson43518235237.1135.5-0.05-1.616.710.02
Tavon Austin43420124236.6724.4-0.36-12.273.65-0.36
DeSean Jackson43721393236.1551.30.4115.1510.620.17
Anquan Boldin43624372235.9049.20.3713.3010.330.07
Larry Fitzgerald43421245335.6642.50.206.847.210.10
Alshon Jeffery43218211135.4427.1-0.26-8.346.59-0.02
Davone Bess43419177034.9617.7-0.51-17.265.21-0.19
Austin Pettis43118173234.8129.3-0.18-5.515.58-0.24
Greg Little4321178032.817.8-0.78-25.012.44-0.27
Kendall Wright43020198132.1225.8-0.21-6.326.60-0.21
Brian Hartline43321272231.2739.20.247.938.24-0.06
Denarius Moore42615233231.2135.30.164.098.960.11
Mike Williams42915164230.7428.4-0.08-2.345.660.00
DeAndre Hopkins42920270130.71330.082.299.310.08
Michael Floyd42916240030.4024-0.22-6.408.28-0.20
Nate Washington43019332229.6545.20.5215.5511.070.11
Chris Givens42713235029.5223.5-0.22-6.028.700.06
Jerome Simpson43219342029.1334.20.165.0710.69-0.08
Jerricho Cotchery42615248228.9836.80.307.829.54-0.04
Marques Colston42921298128.6535.80.257.1510.280.23
Ace Sanders42714162028.5516.2-0.46-12.356.00-0.46
Ty Hilton43016205028.4620.5-0.27-7.966.830.19
Brandon Gibson42820208028.3720.8-0.27-7.577.43-0.17
Steve Smith32614143127.9420.3-0.29-7.645.500.15
Vincent Brown4231591126.9115.1-0.51-11.813.96-0.13
Josh Gordon22814217126.8327.70.030.877.750.12
Robert Woods42611201226.4732.10.225.637.730.22
Mike Wallace42815176126.2223.6-0.09-2.626.290.35
Harry Douglas42314213026.1821.3-0.21-4.889.26-0.20
Aaron Dobson32311118126.1617.8-0.36-8.365.13-0.36
Santana Moss42615172125.9323.2-0.10-2.736.620.11
Donnie Avery42613213125.6827.30.061.628.19-0.16
Leonard Hankerson42415185224.9230.50.235.587.710.12
Jordy Nelson32318289324.7146.90.9622.1912.570.47
Eddie Royal41915184524.5648.41.2523.849.68-0.23
Marlon Brown42314150324.50330.378.506.520.37
James Jones32215212124.0427.20.143.169.640.51
Hakeem Nicks42512230024.0423-0.04-1.049.200.18
Dwayne Bowe42413148223.8926.80.122.916.170.04
Greg Jennings42314252223.6837.20.5913.5210.960.29
Andre Roberts42313145023.5714.5-0.39-9.076.30-0.18
Mohamed Sanu42416146023.3414.6-0.36-8.746.08-0.01
Stephen Hill42413233122.8429.30.276.469.710.01
Nate Burleson32319239022.4123.90.061.4910.390.03
Jason Avant42212146121.7220.6-0.05-1.126.64-0.10
Darrius Heyward-Bey42013135021.7013.5-0.41-8.206.75-0.12
Miles Austin32115125021.4512.5-0.43-8.955.950.22
Santonio Holmes42410243121.2730.30.389.0310.130.15
Rueben Randle42311162021.2116.2-0.22-5.017.040.09
Sidney Rice4209138221.2025.80.234.606.900.23
Golden Tate42213175021.1517.5-0.17-3.657.950.03
Roddy White4181084021.098.4-0.70-12.694.670.03
Kevin Ogletree420870120.3113-0.37-7.313.50-0.09
Rod Streater41913172018.9917.2-0.09-1.799.05-0.05
Riley Cooper418893118.0315.3-0.15-2.735.17-0.10
Kyle Williams419987017.578.7-0.47-8.874.58-0.07
Brandon Stokley316979016.077.9-0.51-8.174.940.18
Edmond Gates416683016.078.3-0.49-7.775.19-0.45
Terrance Williams31512131015.4213.1-0.15-2.328.73-0.15
Kenny Britt316543014.784.3-0.65-10.482.690.22
Kenny Stills4147134014.7013.4-0.09-1.309.57-0.09
Doug Baldwin41512216114.5527.60.8713.0514.400.20
Danny Amendola11410104014.0410.4-0.26-3.647.43-0.36
Jeremy Kerley3149135013.3713.50.010.139.64-0.08
Brian Quick410452013.145.2-0.79-7.945.20-0.32
Ted Ginn3137143212.9926.31.0213.3111.00-0.18
Brandon LaFell211766212.6918.60.545.916.000.05
Josh Morgan4149115012.6211.5-0.08-1.128.21-0.06
Marvin Jones413780112.54140.111.466.15-0.14
Kris Durham4115102012.3910.2-0.20-2.199.27-0.20
Earl Bennett410766212.3018.60.636.306.60-0.02
Stephen Burton212765012.156.5-0.47-5.655.42-0.34
T.J. Graham412445011.584.5-0.59-7.083.75-0.36
Lance Moore311444011.524.4-0.65-7.124.000.14
Malcom Floyd2116149011.5214.90.313.3813.550.28
Keshawn Martin311578011.337.8-0.32-3.537.09-0.55
Damian Williams311775010.957.5-0.31-3.456.82-0.17
Brice Butler411778010.547.8-0.25-2.747.09-0.25
Keenan Allen3108117010.4511.70.131.2511.700.13
Jarius Wright4956209.516.2-0.37-3.316.89-0.01
Travis Benjamin310510508.9910.50.151.5110.500.16
Cordarrelle Patterson4968208.678.2-0.05-0.479.11-0.05
Tim Wright2864707.984.7-0.41-3.285.88-0.41
Tandon Doss1944707.964.7-0.36-3.265.22-0.34
Jaron Brown4834407.384.4-0.37-2.985.50-0.37
Dwayne Harris4755317.0511.30.614.257.570.02
Aldrick Robinson3611306.671.3-0.89-5.372.170.66
Josh Boyce3612406.652.4-0.71-4.254.00-0.71
Markus Wheaton2632606.312.6-0.62-3.714.33-0.62
Niles Paul2422005.552-0.89-3.555.00-0.18
Rishard Matthews2656305.406.30.150.9010.50-0.11
Jacoby Ford3542904.712.9-0.36-1.815.800.03
Junior Hemingway3321314.627.30.892.684.330.89
Eric Page1535504.545.50.190.9611.000.19
Deonte Thompson1545004.4050.120.6010.000.00
Kerry Taylor1434004.184-0.05-0.1810.00-0.05
Andre Caldwell3436914.0912.92.208.8117.25-0.29
Ryan Broyles2433403.913.4-0.13-0.518.500.22
Jeremy Ebert2421003.831-0.71-2.832.50-0.71
Cole Beasley2442303.812.3-0.38-1.515.75-0.53
Robert Meachem3423413.809.41.405.608.500.60
Jermaine Kearse3436613.7812.62.218.8216.500.46
Jacoby Jones1432403.712.4-0.33-1.316.000.08
DeVier Posey1432903.632.9-0.18-0.737.250.00
Justin Hunter2325023.47174.5113.5316.674.51
Griff Whalen1322803.282.8-0.16-0.489.33-0.16
Jeff Maehl1224313.1910.33.557.1121.502.07
Tori Gurley2311503.151.5-0.55-1.655.00-0.55
Derek Moye111112.826.13.283.281.003.28
Patrick Edwards1333002.7830.070.2210.000.07
Mike Brown1311402.621.4-0.41-1.224.67-0.52
Marlon Moore331602.550.6-0.65-1.952.000.17
Nick Toon1211802.491.8-0.34-0.699.00-0.34
A.J. Jenkins121602.430.6-0.92-1.833.00-0.90
Jeremy Ross121801.910.8-0.55-1.114.00-0.55
Stephen Williams220001.860-0.93-1.860.00-0.55
Armanti Edwards120001.770-0.88-1.770.00-0.05
Jon Baldwin1221901.731.90.080.179.50-0.33
Quinton Patton221001.730-0.86-1.730.00-0.86
Jerrel Jernigan221501.630.5-0.57-1.132.50-0.74
Chad Hall110001.610-1.61-1.610.00-0.30
Dane Sanzenbacher111601.070.6-0.47-0.476.00-0.32
Stedman Bailey110001.010-1.01-1.010.00-1.01
Louis Murphy111800.980.8-0.18-0.188.00-0.27
Michael Preston111400.950.4-0.55-0.554.00-0.12
Drew Davis110000.940-0.94-0.940.000.32
Ben Obomanu111800.930.8-0.13-0.138.00-0.01
Marquise Goodwin111000.870-0.87-0.870.00-0.87
Ryan Spadola110000.870-0.87-0.870.00-0.87
Lestar Jean110000.870-0.87-0.870.000.58
Domenik Hixon111800.870.8-0.07-0.078.000.01