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Expected Points and Fantasy Points Over Par (FPOP) are the measures I use to determine how much above or below average a player is on a per play basis. The idea is that every pass attempt on the field has an average fantasy point value associated with it, and then whether a QB produced more or fewer fantasy points with his attempts results in a positive or negative FPOP number.

Some thoughts after 7 weeks.

  • It’s pretty crazy how far below average Tom Brady has been on a per attempt basis. Like really crazy. I know that people will say Brady’s receivers have a lot to do with that, and I’m sure that’s true, but I swear any conversation I get into on Twitter related to QBs ends up with “YEAH BUT FRANCHISE QBS MAKE EVERYONE BETTER”
  • Alex Smith continues to pile up the opportunities that you’re looking for in a late round pick. Smith also gets a run of QB-friendly defenses coming up
  • If you were going to fix the NYG passing game, what could you even do about it? Eli has more INTs than TDs and yet you can’t say that they haven’t spent resources on WRs. So what would you do to fix it?
  • The numbers don’t include Cam’s Thursday night game but he continued last night his somewhat annoying habit of either winning or losing your fantasy week for you. I think I may write him a letter to know that he’s hurting me.
  • Most of Andrew Luck’s excess production is coming running the ball.
  • Carson Palmer is like Eli Manning without the promise of youth.. what’s that? Oh Eli isn’t young? Nevermind.
  • Case Keenum’s debut saw a positive FPOP day.
  • Jake Locker is returning this weekend and has been positive in FPOP both as a runner and as a passer.
PLAYERATTSCOMPSYDSYATDSINTSRYDSRTDSExp PtsActual PtsFPOP per PaAttFPOP per RuAttTotal FPOPCareer FPOP per PaAttCareer FPOP per RuAtt
Peyton Manning28920725628.87253-241161.79225.080.27-0.7463.290.10-0.21
Tom Brady28515817065.9985140140.1199.64-0.10-0.63-40.470.08-0.30
Alex Smith25014515676.27742111139.32116.78-0.09-0.02-22.54-0.03-0.05
Sam Bradford26215916896.45144320139.20132.760.01-0.62-6.44-0.06-0.22
Matthew Stafford29017821297.34154111138.65159.260.08-0.1520.610.000.14
Matt Ryan24417119227.8813390130.60136.780.03-0.196.180.03-0.14
Philip Rivers24918421598.67155320126.56154.560.12-0.4428.000.09-0.34
Tony Romo26518120077.57155200124.68147.280.09-0.2622.600.10-0.14
Robert Griffin23814317467.34862130120.80119.14-0.020.10-1.660.080.48
Jay Cutler22614716547.32127810118.29120.260.010.011.970.01-0.01
Joe Flacco26916019177.1388390115.67104.58-0.04-0.09-11.090.04-0.20
Drew Brees23715719618.27145361115.24148.040.130.0632.800.06-0.24
Aaron Rodgers22014319058.66134750114.93140.700.15-0.3225.770.150.15
Carson Palmer26616117416.5581360111.6384.24-0.08-0.47-27.390.01-0.25
Andrew Luck226138158271031823109.86143.480.050.7833.620.010.40
Russell Wilson18711514887.961143200108.31138.520.140.0830.210.140.20
Andy Dalton25016419157.66116740107.30127.000.09-0.1319.700.02-0.01
Eli Manning26814619217.171015390102.55100.74-0.010.17-1.810.00-0.22
Ben Roethlisberger21514316517.6875480100.2895.84-0.030.13-4.440.07-0.04
Ryan Tannehill21913315757.199750097.2599.000.04-0.321.75-0.02-0.05
Geno Smith22513017107.6811146297.08113.000.010.4615.920.010.46
Matt Schaub23315015526.66895096.9384.58-0.050.06-12.350.03-0.31
Cam Newton17010813317.83105180293.49123.240.130.1929.750.050.33
Brandon Weeden19510311535.915637092.8862.82-0.14-0.25-30.06-0.08-0.07
Colin Kaepernick18210314207.885237190.00116.500.080.2826.500.080.42
Chad Henne17310312217.062517088.4450.54-0.20-0.27-37.90-0.09-0.05
Terrelle Pryor1388910607.6855289075.1986.300.010.2411.110.010.26
Michael Vick1327111878.9952276274.84108.080.110.5633.24-0.010.40
Jake Locker1529410657.0181117171.7798.300.120.4926.530.040.49
E.J. Manuel150859846.5653102071.6068.560.01-0.17-3.040.01-0.17
Josh Freeman147637615.182420055.9834.44-0.150.08-21.54-0.010.00
Mike Glennon130767225.555330055.9150.88-0.050.17-5.03-0.050.17
Christian Ponder100596916.912577249.9847.34-0.130.71-2.64-0.060.24
Brian Hoyer96576156.415314043.0945.000.03-0.181.91-0.01-0.26
Blaine Gabbert86424815.591732041.6513.44-0.30-0.25-28.21-0.12-0.29
Nick Foles90526226.916032140.8464.080.230.2823.24-0.010.23
Ryan Fitzpatrick79415256.652478139.2736.80-0.100.39-2.47-0.040.05
Thaddeus Lewis64404186.532130131.9933.720.020.021.730.020.01
Matt Cassel69484897.093213027.3631.860.07-0.074.50-0.02-0.02
Case Keenum251527110.841010013.4616.840.24-0.863.380.24-0.86
T.J. Yates22151135.1402-9013.34-0.38-0.56-1.30-13.72-0.160.09
Matt Flynn34222467.24114013.1913.240.03-0.380.050.07-0.26
Josh McCown201420410.21033010.1016.460.250.346.36-0.040.07
Matt Barkley20111296.4503006.77-0.84-0.38NA-7.61-0.38NA
Jeff Tuel20880401005.431.20-0.21NA-4.23-0.21NA
Tarvaris Jackson8712916.1210315.4116.460.951.1411.050.000.10
Colt McCoy000NA00-302.49-0.30NA-0.93-2.79-0.06-0.07
Matt Hasselbeck323712.3300001.811.48-0.11NA-0.33-0.01-0.03
Brock Osweiler32103.3300301.790.70-0.19-0.27-1.09-0.21-0.51
Derek Anderson000NA00-401.55-0.40NA-0.49-1.95-0.07-0.07
Curtis Painter4216401001.09-1.36-0.61NA-2.45-0.13-0.18
Kellen Clemens42194.7500001.090.76-0.08NA-0.33-0.17-0.04
Charlie Whitehurst000NA00-301.05-0.30NA-0.45-1.35-0.140.02
Jason Campbell4161.500001.040.24-0.20NA-0.80-0.030.10
Chase Daniel000NA00-401.03-0.40NA-0.36-1.43-0.12-0.28

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