Image via JDN/Flickr

Image via JDN/Flickr

Fantasy drafts are in full swing, and we’ve written a lot recently about our draft strategies and targets at various positions. For this article, I’m taking a look at the wide receivers with the most variability in their projections. These are guys the experts disagree on. Some love ‘em, some hate ‘em. But at some point on draft night, you’ll have to make a decision about these guys: take them at their current ADP, look for them if they drop, or skip them all together. Are these guys great targets for your team or not? Let’s find out.

To begin, I took Fantasy Pros PPR Projections and pasted them into a table. Then I added some analysis, research, and commentary from Rotoviz. Hopefully this exercise helps distill your thinking about these receivers. Here’s what the table tells us.

  • Rank – The Expert Consensus Rank.
  • Standard Deviation – The amount of variability in how the experts rank the player. For the top 50 ranked WRs, the average deviation was 5.74. All of these players have a higher deviation, meaning there’s less agreement amongst the experts. The higher the number, the less agreement.
  • ADP – The player’s current WR ADP.
  • Vs. ADP – The difference between the player’s ADP and their Expert Consensus Rank. Positive numbers are good (the player is expected to outperform their ADP), negative numbers are bad.
  • Volatility – I used the Volatility metric developed by Jonathan Bales to highlight the variability present in our WR App projections for the player. The formula is (High Projection – Low Projection) / Median Projection. Lower scores indicate a more stable projection.
  • Median Projection – The median PPR points/game projection from our WR App.
  • Research – Links to awe inspiring, jaw dropping RotoViz content about the player.
  • Target? – Would I target the player at their current ADP? Feel free to disagree!
rank
Player
St. Dev.
ADP
Vs. ADP
Volatility
Median Projection
Research
Commentary
Target?
17Wes Welker6.113-40.3413.3Wes Welker, Kyle Rudolph, & the 10 Most Overrated Players18 of 20 comps posted worse fantasy point totals in the year following one like Welker’s 2012.Not a target.
21Pierre Garcon6.619-20.1413.2Overvalued/Undervalued: Fixing Some Broken WR ADPsSame projection as Welker, with less volatility and lower ADP. #WinningTarget!
24Jordy Nelson9.320-40.6210.6Jordy Nelson: Fantasy Stud Turned Super SleeperProjecting based on just his healthy 2012 games produces a more robust 16 PPR points/game projection.No.
30James Jones5.926-40.4612.7Fantasy Points Per Target: WRsNeck & Neck Upside Score with Jordy NelsonA better target than Nelson.
28DeSean Jackson6.227-10.418.2The WR Arbitrage App likes Brian Hartline, Danny Amendola, and Antonio Brown betterSurprisingly, no specific content on DJAX. But Kelly’s offense might give him a boost.Meh
31T.Y. Hilton7.628-30.4410.5On the Fantasy Value of T.Y. HiltonChris Givens is the same player at a huge discountNo
27Cecil Shorts6.83140.2811.3Stevie Johnson, Cecil Shorts, & the 10 Most Undervalued PlayersThe Jags’ most efficient WR, doesn’t have to share targets with Justin Blackmon for 4 gamesYuppers
29Greg Jennings6.63230.5710.5Kind of OK as a 4th WRThe WR Arbitrage App like Denarius Moore, Mike Wallace, and Kendall Wright betterDo I look brainwashed?
34Anquan Boldin6.73400.4310.7Make your own projections based on what you think SanFran will doWe haven’t written much about Q. He was Flacco’s most efficient WR, and now gets a QB who was more efficient than Flacco. But SanFran doesn’t pass as much.Maybe.
32Mike Williams63530.3612.910 Targets in 10 Days: Tampa Mike WilliamsWe just call him “Mr Rotoviz”. Got more targets than VJAX in 2nd half of last season.Most definitely.
36Josh Gordon6.53600.4213.5Josh Gordon Similarity ScoresWith rookie production like Julio Jones’ & Calvin Johnson’s, why wouldn’t you want to own him?Yessir.
35Kenny Britt6.13720.539.1Maeby Funk & WR AgeJake Locker ranked 30th in QB efficiency last year.Mmmm, nope.
37Lance Moore6.13810.5812Aaron Rodgers, Doug Martin, and the Eternal Sunshine of the Fantasy MindLike Pierre Garcon, but much cheaper.Go get him
46Vincent Brown10.539-7N/AN/AVincent Brown, Jerry Rice, and the Mythical 4.71 40Smallish, slowish, injured two consecutive years, playing with an aging Rivers in a new offense.Kill it with fire.
40Chris Givens8.24110.977I Don’t Always Draft Small Speed Receivers, But When I Do…Volatile projection, but better production, better measurables, better offense than V.Brown – and cheaper!Of Course
43Justin Blackmon7.642-10.4911.2Justin Blackmon & Kendall Wright: Dominator Rating & HaSS Red FlagsComes with free 4 game suspension & sideline temper tantrum.Move along, nothing to see here.
45Golden Tate11.243-20.6510.7No Percy Harvin? No Problem!Upside CityA Golden Opportunity
39Emmanuel Sanders6.14450.615.9The Steelers Have A TypeInefficient. Of all Roethlisberger receivers over past 3 years with more than 30 targets, the only one less efficient than Sanders was Rashard Mendenhall.Not a Target.
42Michael Floyd8.64530.387.7Michael Floyd & Reuben Randle: Projecting WR BreakoutsCarson Palmer has to be better than Kolb/Skelton/ Lindley…right?Sure, why not.
44Denarius Moore7.84620.6111.9Denarius Moore, Greg Jennings, an ADP ArbitrageAt least he’s cheap.No thanks.
48Sidney Rice6.947-10.939.1Here’s Why I’m Not Happy Sidney Rice Just Got Stolen From MeA volatile projection, but good potential if healthy and SEA passes more.Yah.
51Alshon Jeffery6.650-10.716.8Alshon Jeffery, Deandre Hopkins, and Rookie Derangement SyndromeCutler liked Jeffery just fine in the 3rd preseason game.Yes.

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