dougmartin
RotoViz sports a complete suite of RB prediction tools to help you dominate your draft. Over the past couple of weeks I’ve been using all of them to develop my own draft board. This final article brings those pieces together in a comprehensive set of rankings. First, let’s briefly look at what each tool is designed to do.

The RB Sim Score App

The original app is designed to provide you with a set of comparable players, an N+1 projection, and a Year Over Year Change Plot that gives a visual representation of how those players performed the following year. The biggest factors tend to be size, age, efficiency, touches, and receptions. Size, age, and receptions play a bigger role than most realize.

In looking at the Sim Scores, I came to the conclusion that Alfred Morris was an underrated stealth star, DeMarco Murray is sitting on post-hype volcano the size of Yellowstone, and Adrian Peterson, god forbid, is overvalued.

The RB Sim Score Lab

This may be my favorite RotoViz app because it allows you to create your own hypothetical runners. You can punch in numbers for Robo Richardson or Cheat Code Charles. One of the best applications of this tool is to help the Sim Scores answer questions they don’t know to ask. What would S-Jax look like in Atlanta? What if Lamar Miller had received starter carries?

I used this App to look at the non-rookie runners with ADPs in the 1-20 range and came to a startling conclusion. Trent Richardson ranked as the No. 1 back. (Please just add, “. . . if he stays healthy,” to every statement about every player; and for the supposedly injury-prone guys, give it a mental italics.)

Then I performed the same analysis on the guys in the 21-50 range. (Perhaps it’s because David Wilson is the most important player on earth, but he somehow ended up on both lists. That’s just one of the reasons I call him the World Turtle.) This is probably the most actionable article I’ve written all summer.

The RB Custom Cheat Sheet

The Cheat Sheet allows you to generate a quick set of rankings and export it to Excel. Like so many of the RotoViz tools, it’s highly flexible and you can spend as much or as little time with it as you want. It allows you to adjust for number of carries and by week of the season. It also allows you to change the ‘games played’ adjustment, which is one of my favorite buttons to fiddle with and see the morphing of results.

Earlier this week, I followed the same method I used in generating a complete set of WR rankings – Brandon Marshall was No. 1 in a mild, but not ridiculous, upset – and published my full set of rankings. After writing that article, I became even more convinced that Ray Rice is the most underrated RB1 this season.

My Final RotoViz Board

These rankings use the three sets of projections. Because they most closely represent my own beliefs and because they may make a few important adjustments for context, I’ve weighted the RB Sim Lab results at 60% and the other two at 20% each. The numbers and rankings are for PPR leagues, but all of the apps can also give you standard and half-ppr numbers. As always, I encourage you to interact with the apps yourself.

The links in the “Notes” section provide an index to the main feature articles we’ve done on these players this summer.

RkPlayerRB LabCustom Cheat SheetSim ScoreFinal ProjectionNotes
1Doug Martin17.719.219.218.3Clear No. 1
2Trent Richardson19.114.01417.1Most upside, a lot of risk
3C.J. Spiller1717.215.916.8Yards from scrimmage record falling?
4Ray Rice16.517.217.216.8Outscored AP 19.7 to 19.6 over last 4 years
5Jamaal Charles17.914.912.116.1Best reality back in great offense
6Arian Foster16.712.615.115.6Heavy prior usage may not matter
7Adrian Peterson16.713.114.215.5Just not in a good system for fantasy
8Alfred Morris15.315.315.315.3Terrell Davis 2.0
9LeSean McCoy15.415.01515.2Might get 400 touches
10Matt Forte14.812.01213.7A better Charlie Garner
11Reggie Bush14.811.91213.7Fantasy MVP candidate is primed for best year
12Chris Johnson14.49.812.513.1Nobody likes the end of Lost or my CJ post
13Stevan Ridley13.810.912.412.9Lacks the Top 5 upside without receptions
14Marshawn Lynch12.113.015.112.9Skittles is even more overvalued than you think
15DeMarco Murray12.113.713.712.7Zone scheme could give another boost
16Steven Jackson149.89.812.3An MVP candidate or is lateral movement gone?
17Frank Gore11.810.910.911.4Will lose more touches to Hunter, James than expected
18Darren McFadden11.711.01111.4Injury prone back in terrible offense
19Ahmad Bradshaw10.612.512.511.4An arbitrage play for MJD fans?
20Maurice Jones-Drew13.48.28.211.3Revlis football is still on board
21Ryan Mathews10.710.811.310.8As ADP plummets his prospects start to intrigue
22Lamar Miller13.76.96.110.8Get on board the hype train
23Bryce Brown119.410.910.7An easy RB2 if he fends off Chris Polk
24David Wilson12.37.75.910.1Wildly undervalued or overvalued?
25Mark Ingram10.97.59.39.9A cheaper version of Ridley?
26BenJarvus Green-Ellis9.87.811.39.7Valuable if Bengals’ offense becomes elite
27Bernard Pierce9.48.910.39.5Receives boost from return of Leach
28Andre Brown9.612.84.49.2Goal line back and potential finisher with upside
29Darren Sproles9.49.08.79.2He’ll finish as a RB1/2 but still be overvalued by ADP
30Shane Vereen10.77.45.79.0Not a Sproles-level talent but ready to emerge
31Rashard Mendenhall9.910.05.49.0Would be a target if not for OL and schedule
32Chris Ivory11.45.33.18.5Should be higher but injuries, offense are concerns
33Daryl Richardson9.47.178.5It’s probably time to buy
34Vick Ballard7.19.411.48.4A sleeper behind an oft-injured starter
35Danny Woodhead8.77.47.48.2Fontaine’s PPR sleeper
36Mikel Leshoure5.510.413.48.1App loves size/age but now 3rd string
37Pierre Thomas7.97.66.67.6Should be part of the Ultimate Power Lineup
38Ronnie Hillman8.36.767.5A breakout candidate even with Ball hovering
39Isaiah Pead9.24.54.57.3The next Tatum Bell?
40DeAngelo Williams6.57.697.2Sneaky value in revamped offense
41Kendall Hunter8.25.55.57.1Reports on Achilles are very positive
42Jacquizz Rodgers6.67.38.27.1Don’t bother selling, just release
43Shonn Greene59.310.97.0No stand alone value
44LaMichael James8.34.84.16.8Nobody is giving him his due
45Jonathan Stewart6.66.76.76.6Shooting for Week 1 but may be finished
46Fred Jackson6.64.16.96.2Generating no media buzz but still sports surprising ADP
47Joique Bell4.68.07.65.9Must handcuff for Bush owners
48Knowshon Moreno4.54.011.75.8Still has a chance to factor in
49Ben Tate4.25.35.34.6A breakout would be better late than never
50Michael Bush5.14.72.054.4….

Those looking for my Comprehensive QB Workshop – targets, strategy, and exploded myths – start with Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, and the QB Safety Rankings.

Shawn Siegele is the creator of the contrarian sports website Money in the Banana Stand and Lead Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

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