In this series, I’ll take a position by position look at players whose ADP is broken: they’re being drafted too high based on our projections. I’ll highlight some of our existing analysis of the players, and offer a new tidbit. Then I’ll offer some better, cheaper alternatives. Throughout, I’ll be assuming a 12 team league using PPR scoring.
Today’s installment: Tight Ends. It seems like TE is a pretty deep position, so we ought to be able to get a good one in the mid to latter part of the draft. But not just any TE. We still want to get the maximum bang for our draft pick buck. To do that, you’ll need to avoid these three TEs, and target one of these better, later round options.
Courtesy Fantasy Football Calculator, here’s the most recent TE ADP breakdown.
Tight Ends to Avoid
- What We Said: When you can’t outperform a bulky, second string running back that is largely considered to be a bust, you’re one of the worst TE values in the draft.
- Also Consider: Despite finishing 2012 as TE11 in PPR formats, he’s being drafted as TE7. But his fantasy points/target rate was only 17th last year, and with new mouths to feed at WR, it’s not clear he’ll get the requisite targets to make him worth a 7th round pick.
- What We Said: He’s terrible in the red zone, and not very efficient, either.
- Also Consider: St. Louis has 475 receiving options (roughly), and doesn’t throw in the TE direction much. Investing an 8th round pick in Cook is a gamble that he improves on last year’s 14th best fantasy points/target rate by doing more with each target.
- What We Said: His efficiency and productivity has declined three straight years, and his quarterback is toast.
- Also Consider: He’s 33, with some recurring injury concerns, and Ladarius Green waiting in the wings. A new coaching staff may not feel the same loyalty to Gates. I’m not willing to bet that he and Rivers both fight off Father Time to regain their former glory.
Target These Tight Ends Instead
- What We Said: He makes a good redraft target, because his scoring projects higher than his ADP, and he’s relatively safe.
- Also Consider: His fantasy points/target and fantasy points over par are both better than Jimmy Graham’s. Is he Jimmy Graham? No. But he’s hella cheaper and projects to score low end TE1 points.
- What We Said: He’s younger than Graham, in a contract year, and plays with the best QB in the league. He’s also got a high ceiling relative to his ADP.
- Also Consider: His ceiling is probably higher than Greg Olsen. Besides, would you rather gamble a 9th round pick on Aaron Rodgers’ TE, or an earlier pick on Christian Ponder, Philip Rivers, or Sam Bradford elevating their TE?
- What We Said: He’s the same age as Jared Cook, a better athlete, scored more points last year, and has a great ceiling at his ADP.
- Also Consider: New Bears’ coach Marc Trestman has produced some really great numbers for his teams’ top three receivers. Figure Marshall and Forte are two of those three. Bennett has a great shot at being the third.
From our TE Projection App, our scoring projections for these six TEs.