alexsmith

Shawn Siegele made the case for Alex Smith as your fantasy QB back in February. More recently we’ve touted Smith as a better option than Philip Rivers.

Here’s some more table-pounding for Alex Smith.

Check out Smith’s recent ADP in 12 team leagues, courtesy Fantasy Football Calculator.

Pos
Rank
PickNamePosTeamByeOverallStd.
Dev
HighLowTimes
Drafted
13.05Aaron RodgersQBGB428.69.11.045.021270
23.09Drew BreesQBNO732.98.61.105.061207
34.09Peyton ManningQBDEN944.57.43.016.051137
45.06Cam NewtonQBCAR454.18.23.087.081046
56.01Tom BradyQBNE1061.38.54.038.04957
66.03Matt RyanQBATL663.07.54.078.071037
76.10Matthew StaffordQBDET970.37.35.039.03972
87.04Colin KaepernickQBSF976.29.55.0310.07901
97.07Robert GriffinQBWAS578.89.35.069.09941
107.10Russell WilsonQBSEA1281.59.45.0910.041009
117.12Andrew LuckQBIND884.49.45.1110.081074
128.03Tony RomoQBDAL1187.39.76.0111.021046
139.06Eli ManningQBNYG9101.910.97.0112.05641
1410.10Michael VickQBPHI12117.813.07.1212.12325
1511.01Andy DaltonQBCIN12121.511.38.0813.12496
1611.06Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT5125.611.58.1114.02436
1711.10Jay CutlerQBCHI8129.612.09.0215.11393
1812.03Joe FlaccoQBBAL8135.012.69.0615.10301
1912.10Philip RiversQBSD8141.811.710.0315.05326
2012.12Carson PalmerQBARI9143.511.610.0515.09413
2113.01Tim TebowQBNE10144.946.63.0215.1226
2213.04Sam BradfordQBSTL11148.012.610.0715.11460
2313.08Josh FreemanQBTB5152.112.310.1215.12428
2413.11Matt SchaubQBHOU8154.912.911.0115.12359
2514.01Ryan TannehillQBMIA6156.713.910.1215.12378
2614.06Alex SmithQBKC10162.111.611.1115.12212
2714.07EJ ManuelQBBUF12162.815.911.0115.1129
2814.12Geno SmithQBNYJ10168.016.611.0415.1224

Yup, that’s him all the way down there at 26th overall. Tim Tebow is being drafted ahead of him (although on a small number of mocks). Also going before Smith are Philip Rivers and Michael Vick, and they may not be fantasy relevant anymore.

So why should we pay attention to Alex Smith? We’ve liked Alex Smith around here for months now. Shawn Siegele made the case for Alex Smith as your fantasy QB back in February. More recently he’s touted Alex Smith as someone to build your QB strategy around. Then there’s this:

Alex Smith averaged 0.53 FP per pass attempt in his last 26 full games on 27.8 PA per game. Andy Reid’s PHI teams have averaged 36.6 PA.

— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) July 18, 2013

When I saw this tweet last night, my first thought was “mmm, potato chips.” But my second thought was “whoa, maybe we’re still underestimating him.”

So I came up with the following table. It shows three fantasy point per attempt rates for Alex Smith: his career average (.52), his average over the past four seasons (.6), and his average from last year (.72). Then it shows three different attempt per game scenarios: one where his attempts/game match his career average, one where his attempts/game match Andy Reid’s average over the past four seasons, and a compromise showing the average of Smith’s career and Reid’s four year QB attempts/game. Projected fantasy points/game based on 6 points/TD.

0.52 FP/Att0.6 FP/Att.72 FP/Att
28.69 Smith Career Att/G14.9217.2120.94
32.21 Ave Att/G16.7519.3223.58
35.72 Reid Att/G18.5721.4326.08

Smith probably won’t finish 2013 as the second best fantasy QB. But it seems likely he could finish as a startable QB1, which is a good return for a 14th round draft pick. Comparing this “Medium” projection to the mid-level projections of other likely QB starters using the QB Similarity App, Smith projects to come in at QB10.  And if Smith generates his four-year average of 0.6 fantasy points/attempt and the Chiefs throws it 35 times a game, like Reid did in Philly? Smith’s mid-level projection of 21.43 points/game would put him at QB2 vs. all other QBs mid-level projections in our similarity app.

But we’ll stay somewhat conservative and just focus on that middle projection: The Chiefs average 32 pass attempts/game or so, and Smith performs at his four year average rate of 0.6 fantasy points/attempt. That’s 19.32 fantasy points/game, people. Personally, I expect Reid’s Chiefs to throw the ball a lot, just like the Eagles did. Remember, Reid was chucking it 35 times a game with Vick, Kolb, Foles, and end of the line McNabb at QB.

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