In Part 1, I looked at Carolina’s forgotten WR, David Gettis, and noted that as a sixth-round rookie in 2010—in a total disaster of a season that earned the Panthers the #1 pick in the 2011 draft—Gettis (not Steve Smith) was the team’s most productive fantasy WR. Additionally, I looked at the post-rookie production of players comparable to Gettis (in both size and in rookie stats) to see how Gettis might perform in 2013 and beyond. This cohort of comparable players, “The Getti, 1978-2011,” as I’ve dubbed them, comprised seven players, five of whom had at least one top-30 season in their careers. And perhaps most impressively two of the three players chosen after Round 2 were the guys who had the most remarkable careers, and one of them was Terrell Owens.
Gettis probably won’t be the next T.O.—but at his (nonexistent) ADP, it cost almost nothing to roster him, and if he turns into only the next J.J. Stokes then that extra production could help you win a championship.
The Missing Getti, 2012
And here’s one more wrinkle. Two other WRs showed up on Gettis’ list of comparable players, but since they were rookies in 2012 and seemingly offered no predictive value, I left them off the previous tables in Part 1. Who are those guys? Michael Floyd and Rod Streater. Let’s see how they compare to Gettis.
Again, Gettis is really similar to these guys, except he’s a little bit faster. And what do the stats from PFR say?
Now, I sometimes get in trouble for overusing what I’m about to say, but . . . arbitrage??? The mean of Floyd and Streater’s receiving average is exactly Gettis’ rookie average. He and Floyd both finished with a positional ranking of #67. For all intents and purposes, these guys were roughly equivalent as rookies.
As one more way to compare these guys, let’s look at RotoViz’s (excellent) College WR Comparison App. (It’s one of the best dynasty tools around.) Here’s the heatmap for all three WRs.
Notes: *msYDS = Player Receiving Yards/Team Passing Yards, msTD is like msYDS but for touchdowns, YPT = Yards/Target, TRGS = Total Targets on the Season, RZTDR = Red Zone Touchdowns/Red Zone Targets
Floyd was clearly the most accomplished of these WRs coming out of college, sporting a consistent and solid market share of yards and TDs across his last three years, and yet as a senior he had the lowest yards per target of the three. Meanwhile, Streater has such a small sample size of targets that any predictive statements based on his collegiate production would be problematic. He sported fantastic yardage per target and a horrendous red zone conversion rate, but on only 31 targets these metrics mean almost nothing. Gettis, meanwhile, was nonchalantly and consistently mediocre with his 80 targets, catching 22% of his red zone targets and capturing 23% of his team’s receiving yards and TDs. In other words, coming out of college he wasn’t a great prospect by college production, but neither was Streater (and he’s getting some attention), and even Floyd has his YPT wart.
But what would you expect of a sixth-round draft pick? He’s available late in drafts and off of waivers for a reason—if he’d had Floyd’s production coming out of college, he probably would’ve been drafted within the first three rounds. Still, for a guy you can get for almost nothing, “Rod Streater” upside isn’t horrible.
According to MFL, Floyd has an ADP of 128.68 in redraft leagues, and Streater has an ADP of 193.11. In keeper leagues, these two popular sleepers have ADPs of 118.63 and 163.37. In juxtaposition, Gettis doesn’t even have an ADP. And in our RDL veteran draft, Jonathan Bales drafted Floyd at the top of Round 7 with the 85th pick, and James Goldstein stole Rod Streater (a likely NFL starter) in Round 12 with the 158th pick. And Gettis? I took him in Round 17 with the 234th pick—and I probably could’ve let him sit there longer, but I didn’t want to tempt the fantasy gods or my league mates.
Gettis probably won’t turn into T.O. or even Floyd and Streater, but at their ADPs those two 2012 rookies seem less attractive to me than Gettis does. He’s not a sexy player to talk about, but if you’re in a dynasty draft that selects more than 200 players, he’s a guy you may want to keep in mind. Based on his list of comparable players (and his own measurables), he has significant upside—and if, as roughly the 120th WR off the board, he can produce a top-60 positional performance within the next couple of seasons, that unexpected production from the bench could help a team make the playoffs or maybe even win a championship—at least that’s what the logic I used when drafting him.
Throughout the summer, I plan on doing a series of pieces on my RDL team, with each piece likely to compare the player taken by one of my original picks (or perhaps available at that pick or whom I would have been tempted to take there) to the player I acquired either with the corresponding “replacement” pick or with an equivalent roster function in mind, i.e., “This guy will be my RB2,” or “This guy will be one of my project WRs.”
Just for reference, here’s a table showing the net effect of my trading down and drafting strategies. The group on the left comprises the players acquired with the picks I originally owned. The group on the right is my actual roster, the players I actually picked after I traded down multiple times. I don’t know about you, but I prefer the roster on the right.
2013 RDL Draft: Riggins Rigs
Original Draft Position New Draft Position
|2013||Vet.||1||14||14||Jimmy Graham||2013||Vet.||3||10||38||Steven Jackson|
|2||1||15||Jamaal Charles||3||14||42||Reggie Bush|
|3||14||42||Reggie Bush||4||5||47||Andre Johnson|
|4||1||43||Russell Wilson||5||8||64||Frank Gore|
|5||14||70||James Jones||5||10||66||Danario Alexander|
|6||1||71||Reggie Wayne||5||14||70||James Jones|
|7||14||98||Tony Romo||6||1||71||Reggie Wayne|
|8||1||99||Tony Gonzalez||6||5||75||Jonathan Stewart|
|9||14||126||Isaiah Pead||7||8||92||DeSean Jackson|
|10||1||127||Joe Flacco||7||14||98||Tony Romo|
|11||14||154||Jay Cutler||8||1||99||Tony Gonzalez|
|12||1||155||Jeremy Kerley||8||5||103||Sidney Rice|
|13||14||182||DeAngelo Williams||9||8||120||Antonio Gates|
|14||1||183||Roy Helu||9||14||131||Jon Baldwin|
|15||14||210||Bilal Powell||10||5||138||Jarius Wright|
|16||1||211||Beanie Wells||11||8||144||Daniel Thomas|
|17||14||238||Clyde Gates||12||5||148||Philip Rivers|
|18||1||239||T.J. Yates||13||8||159||Kealoha Pilares|
|19||14||266||Cyrus Gray||14||1||176||Evan Royster|
|20||1||267||Marcedes Lewis||16||1||183||Roy Helu|
|21||14||294||Stephen Burton||16||7||211||Beanie Wells|
|22||1||295||Armon Binns||17||10||217||Jarrett Boykin|
|23||14||322||Shaun Draughn||17||14||234||David Gettis|
|24||1||323||Ryan Fitzpatrick||18||1||238||Clyde Gates|
|25||14||350||Jordan Norwood||21||14||294||Stephen Burton|
|26||1||351||Bernard Scott||22||1||295||Armon Binns|
|Rook 1||27||1||1||Le’Veon Bell||Rook 1||27||7||7||Eddie Lacy|
|Rook 2||28||14||28||Terrance Williams||Rook 2||28||4||18||Marcus Lattimore|
|Rook 3||29||1||29||Da’Rick Rogers||Rook 3||28||8||22||Geno Smith|
|Rook 4||30||14||56||Michael Ford (last pick of Round 30)||Rook 4||28||14||28||Terrance Williams|