spiller

From the Buffalo Bills official team website:

Nathaniel Hackett’s offense is going to be operating at warp speed. Provided the team makes first downs and holds onto the ball Buffalo’s plays per game is going to take a sizable jump up.

Last year Buffalo ranked 28th in the league averaging 61.4 plays per game. New England led the league with a mark of 74.3. At Syracuse Hackett’s offense averaged 79.1 and in college it should be noted there are more clock stoppages on out of bounds plays…

…Spiller could arguably touch the ball 30 times a game if the offense is operating efficiently…At Syracuse they ran about 41 run plays per game, so there should be enough plays for the ball to be shared effectively.

C.J Spiller is just as ridiculous as advertised. I myself took him in the first round of the Rotoviz Dynasty league and feel pretty good about the pick, but even I wasn’t aware of this information. Given that Spiller scored 218 standard points on only 250 touches, the concept of him pushing 300 or even 350 total touches is pretty intriguing. All offseason, LeSean McCoy has been climbing up the RB big board due to the perceived tempo of the yet-unknown Chip Kelly offense, and Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley both remain attractive options due to the sheer number of plays the New England offense will run. If Marrone’s offense looks anything like this article suggests, Spiller has a clear shot at being the most valuable fantasy player.

Shawn Siegele did a an amazing job projecting the top 20 RB’s with the custom sim score app, so I decided to play around with the app to project Spiller based on this extremely optimistic projection. Spiller averaged 78 rushing yards and 28.5 receiving yards per game last year, so I rounded down to 75 and 27, but upped the carries per game to 20 (which would equate to essentially what the quoted piece suggested) and used Spiller’s .9 touchdowns per game. Obviously, as I stated, this is a VERY optimistic projection, but it’s all based in some fragment of reality and paints a picture of the very top range of outcomes for Spiller.

Here are Spiller’s N+1 Projections per game:

-StandardHalf PPRPPR
Low13.214.315.4
Median14.916.217.3
High16.217.819.3

As if those numbers weren’t intriguing enough, these are the 20 most comparable fantasy players and season’s to Spiller’s top-level projection:

NAMESEASOFFAGEWTGMSCARSYDSYPCTDSrecsrecYDSrecTDS
Clinton Portis2008WAS272051621.3892.944.350.561.7513.620.00
Shaun Alexander2003SEA262251620.4489.194.360.882.6218.440.12
Maurice Jones-Drew2010JAC252081421.4394.504.410.362.4322.640.14
Joseph Addai2008IND252101212.9245.333.510.422.0817.170.17
Shaun Alexander2002SEA252251618.5072.693.931.003.6928.620.12
Adrian Peterson2010MIN252171518.8786.534.590.802.4022.730.07
Adrian Peterson2011MIN262171217.5880.334.571.001.5010.920.08
Chris Johnson2011TEN261911616.3865.444.000.253.5626.120.00
Marshall Faulk2004STL312111413.9355.293.970.213.5722.140.07
Domanick Davis2005HOU252161120.9188.734.240.183.5530.640.36
Clinton Portis2007WAS262051620.3178.123.850.692.9424.560.00
Curtis Martin2001NYJ282101620.7593.694.520.623.3120.000.00
Travis Henry2003BUF252151522.2090.074.060.671.8710.530.07
Edgerrin James2004IND262141620.8896.944.640.563.1930.190.00
LaDainian Tomlinson2005SD262211621.1991.444.321.123.1222.880.12
Shaun Alexander2004SEA272251622.06105.944.801.001.4410.620.25
LaDainian Tomlinson2008SD292211618.2569.383.800.693.2525.690.06
Deuce McAllister2003NO252321621.88101.944.660.504.3131.940.00
Matt Forte2009CHI242181616.1957.623.560.253.5629.440.00
Brian Westbrook2009PHI3020087.7534.254.420.123.1222.620.12

You may remember those names from every fantasy football championship team ever. This purpose of this exercise isn’t to tell you that C.J Spiller for sure will finish as the number 1 overall fantasy player, but rather to demonstrate his range of outcomes. While Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson have their ceilings priced into their ADP, Spiller being chosen as in the latter half of the first round represents a unique opportunity for snake drafters to get an elite running back with a great amount of upside and also pair him with an elite WR along the lines of Brandon Marshall, A.J Green or Dez Bryant. Take advantage of the mistakes of the masses.

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    Davis Mattek is a 21 year old English Major at Kansas State University. He can be found most days writing about fantasy sports for www.sportswunderkind.com , FantasyInsiders, RotoAcademy and Rotoviz.