Colin Kaepernick

In a word: No.

Colin Kaepernick was efficient almost anywhere he threw the ball in 2012, including when he threw the ball to receivers that are primarily known for drops (Delanie Walker). It’s true that Kaepernick was very good when throwing to Crabtree, but it’s more the case that Kap just leaned on Crabtree a lot so the stats ended up being volume + efficiency. The table below shows Kaep’s attempts to his top receivers. It would be remarkable if Kaep could keep up this kind of pace, although I kind of suspect that the SF scheme deserves much of the credit.

Colin KaepernickMichael CrabtreeWR69436135010.33
Colin KaepernickRandy MossWR3015199124.30
Colin KaepernickDelanie WalkerTE25152612012.04
Colin KaepernickVernon DavisTE2516192108.48
Colin KaepernickMario ManninghamWR2215207009.41
Colin KaepernickFrank GoreRB1410106109.00

And just so it doesn’t sound like I’m saying that Crabtree’s injury doesn’t matter at all, I’m not saying that. But given the broad success that Kaep had throwing the ball last year, I think it’s reasonable to believe that they’ll figure out a way for him to throw it effectively in 2013 as well.

From week 11 (when Kaep made his first start against the Bears) through the Super Bowl, here is Kaep’s average stat line:

Colin Kaepernick20121027.216.90.62401.40.500.136.647.60.6

He was basically RGIII from that point on. In 2013 you can draft Kaep in the 5th or 6th round and get a healthy player. Or you can wait a round  or two for RGIII and get a guy coming off of an ACL reconstruction. That’s a tough decision, I know.

Subscribe for a constant stream of league-beating articles available only with a Premium Pass.