andy_dalton

The title of this article is maybe a little misleading. I don’t actually have Ginger Fever. Or at least not for Andy Dalton. Now Christina Hendricks on the other hand… moving on.

The table below is from the app that I posted yesterday and breaks up Andy Dalton’s targets as a pro, based on who he was throwing to.

PasserReceiverPOSATTSRECSYDSTDSINTSAYA
Andy DaltonA.J. GreenWR27215822791698.07
Andy DaltonJermaine GreshamTE18411913111118.08
Andy DaltonAndrew HawkinsWR11373790446.11
Andy DaltonJerome SimpsonWR10149720417.48
Andy DaltonAndre CaldwellWR6737317370.93
Andy DaltonBrian LeonardRB4431252005.73
Andy DaltonBenJarvus Green-EllisRB3022104011.97
Andy DaltonMarvin JonesWR3017195115.67
Andy DaltonArmon BinnsWR2918210107.93
Andy DaltonMohamed SanuWR2516154409.36

AYA = (Yards + TD*20 – INT*45)/ATTS

AYA is a stat from Pro Football Reference and it’s highly correlated with winning in the NFL.

You can see that there are reasons to be excited for Dalton’s prospects. He’s been good throwing to all of the following receivers: AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham, Mohamed Sanu (on a small sample). These numbers go back to Dalton’s rookie year.  You can also see from the table that there have been some problem areas too. Passes to running backs tend to produce lower AYA, but that’s especially been the case with Dalton. Throwing the ball into the turf wouldn’t have had a much different impact than throwing it to the Law Firm, whose targets produced 1.97 AYA.

The room for optimism as it relates to Dalton comes from the following things:

I’m not an unbiased party in this article. I own Dalton in a couple of leagues, but I own Dalton because I like his chances… rather than the other way around.

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