13 Jun 2017

The Tom Brady Halo Effect


Winning in fantasy football isn’t as easy as the “just pick the right players” crowd would have you believe. Winning – not in a single league, but consistently – is the result of finding the overlooked advantages that together create a sustainable edge. I focus much of my analysis on price, where

rookie rankings
05 Apr 2017

Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots for Rookie Wide Receivers


A couple years ago, I attempted to create a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition.

03 Apr 2017

Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky and the Importance of Sample Size


I was happy to see Rotoworld’s Josh Norris recognize the importance of sample size while recently predicting that the analytical wizards with the Cleveland Browns will prefer Deshaun Watson to Mitchell Trubisky come draft day. 

rookie rb
27 Mar 2017

Foreman, Fournette and Mixon Lead the 2017 RB Success Model


We have roughly a month until the 2017 NFL draft, when we will learn where our favorite (or not so favorite) prospects will land this coming season. While draft position and landing spot are huge factors for forecasting the success of any running back prospect, I’ve found that we can

draftkings week 14
20 May 2016

5 Undervalued Quarterbacks with Loads of Receiving Talent


Earlier this offseason, we used the pre-NFL draft ADP relationship between a quarterback and his receivers to find potential opportunity for rookie wide receivers.

13 May 2016

Buyer Beware: Ezekiel Elliott is Priced for Perfection


Earlier we took a look at the 2016 wide receiver class through the lens of expected ADP based on NFL draft position, and found that the class (with one exception) looks historically overvalued. Now it’s time to look at 2016’s running backs, with particular focus on the top

12 May 2016

The Overvalued 2016 Rookie Receiver Class (Plus One Steal)


There was a lot of talk leading into the NFL draft about how weak the crop of receivers was this year, and the amount of total draft capital spent on receivers was the lowest we’ve seen in nearly 20 years.

03 May 2016

Assessing the Landing Spots For 2016’s Second and Third Round Rookie Receivers


A large determinant of opportunity is draft position, but it isn’t the only factor. We must also dig into the opportunity available for targets and production at rookie landing spots.

02 May 2016

Don’t Sleep On Cody Kessler: The NFL-Ready Rookie Who Only Doesn’t Look The Part


Despite the fact that the Browns new head coach and quarterback guru Hue Jackson says that third-round pick Cody Kessler is everything you look for in a quarterback and you have to trust him on the selection, major doubts still exist from the majority of NFL draft prognosticators on whether

29 Apr 2016

Assessing the Landing Spots For 2016’s First Round Rookie Rookie Receivers


There was a strong run of wide receivers taken in the second half of the first round of the NFL draft. We all want our dynasty rookie picks to quickly appreciate, and the best way for that to happen is for a rookie to start out with strong production in