Blair Andrews

Managing Editor, Author of The Wrong Read, Occasional Fantasy Football League Winner. All opinions are someone else's.

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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

What Metrics Are Most Important for WR Evaluation? Machine Learning Provides Several Surprising Answers – The Wrong Read, No. 68

In the 68th edition of the Wrong Read, Blair Andrews uses a random forest to help you find the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation. A couple of years ago, I did a fun study called the Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide to determine which metrics best correlated with NFL success. That was a good first step, but it had a couple of holes…....

The 2021 Backfield Dominator Ratings Uncover 3 Sleepers and 1 Surprising Superstar in the Making

Every year there are college running backs whose counting stats underrate (or overrate) their true ability. This is especially true following the 2020 season, in which many teams played only a handful of games. Among the most powerful adjustments we can make in order to correct for the problem of counting stats is to use the Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). If you’ve forgotten or perhaps…...

Just How Crazy Was 2020? Insights from the Win the Flex App and Strategies for 2021 Drafts

Drafting successfully means, at least in part, picking the right kinds of players and avoiding the wrong kinds. We provide a lot of guidance at RotoViz on who the right and wrong kind of players to draft are. Still, getting the player selection tactics down is only part of the solution for finding the game-changing win rates we know are possible. Shawn Siegele has detailed…...

You’re Probably Targeting Upside and Safety in the Wrong Parts of Your Draft … And Killing Your Best Ball Win Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 67

The previous Wrong Read looked at best ball win rates as a function of age and experience. The surprising finding is that at almost every position, younger and less experienced players underperform. Two factors combine to make this the case. First, the optionality profile of best ball leagues makes them less ideal for players with a wide range of outcomes than traditional redraft leagues. If…...

Are Your Best Ball Teams Too Young? Age, Experience, Upside, and Optionality in Redraft and Best Ball – The Wrong Read, No. 66

Anyone who spends much time perusing this site will soon realize we tend to have a strong youth bias. We’re constantly searching for the next rookie sensation, and much of our dynasty advice comes down to selling your stars — especially at RB — while you can still get your leaguemates to pay elite-level prices for them. Nearly always, we advise trying to make your…...

Justin Jefferson and the Value of Checking All the Boxes: Why We Picked Him and How to Do It Again – The Wrong Read, No. 65

Justin Jefferson finished his rookie season with 1,400 receiving yards — the most for a rookie WR this century. His 64.2 receiving FPOE trail only Odell Beckham and A.J. Brown. His 274.2 PPR points trail only Beckham and Anquan Boldin. Yet going into the 2020 season, Jefferson was just the ninth player picked in FFPC rookie drafts. Likewise, Brown was the 10th player picked in…...

2021 FFPC Playoff Challenge Projections: What Expected Points Are Telling Us Ahead of the Postseason

If you’re playing in the FFPC Playoff Challenge, some helpful data to bring into the contest with you would be playoff projections. A feature of the RotoViz Screener that often gets overlooked is the ability to look at playoff games and even to create objective projections based on a linear regression. There are a lot of ways to create powerful models, but in what follows…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 17 – Dynasty Buy or Sell Edition

Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 17. This week, we look for the top dynasty buy and sell candidates. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...

Stefon Diggs Had One of the Best Playoff Runs Ever, and He Was Still Overshadowed: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 16

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 16. A RotoViz favorite becomes (almost) the fantasy playoff MVP, and we look at just how strange a season it’s been. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. It’s worth putting Stefon Diggs’ last three…...

2 Surprise RBs Outperform and Rookie WRs Keep Making History: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 15

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 15. This week, we crown a new dynasty WR1. How does he compare to dynasty WR1s from years past? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. Even Bad Players Are Sometimes Good We’ve profiled J.D…....

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – The Colts Revive Their Two-Headed Monster and the Steelers Get a RotoViz Subscription

Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 15, including the emergence of multiple top rookies and a familiar strategy the Steelers are using as they try to hold on to a playoff bye. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Is Ezekiel Elliott Toast?

Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the NFC ahead of Week 14 in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Is it time to move on from Ezekiel Elliott? You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB…...

You Can Win with the Worst RB in the NFL, but What About the Two Worst RBs? What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 13. Backup RBs continued to underperform while our favorite rookies continued to make cases for dynasty startup first-round status. And we finally answer the question: do you really need RBs in the FFPC? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 13 – One-Week Fill-Ins Underperform and an Unexpected Superstar Cements His Role

Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 13, including the emergence of an unexpected superstar, in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB stars. This…...

You Can Win by Starting the Worst RB in the NFL, But Probably Not the Worst WR: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 12. Some inefficient players still manage performances you can live with, while some will destroy your chance at a title. Some players put up Week 12 performances you couldn’t win without. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end…...

An Extreme Zero-RB Proof of Concept In Action, and the Surprisingly Efficient Sleeper You Might Want to Add for a Playoff Run

Blair Andrews looks back at the season for an extreme Zero-RB FFPC Main Event team, and also details the important developments in NFC backfields ahead of Week 12. Check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on the AFC. Zero running back teams don’t always make the playoffs. But when they do, it’s usually because they’ve hit on some breakout RBs in the later rounds. However, you…...

James Robinson Redeems the Rookie RBs: What Expected Points Are Telling Us So Far in 2020

Blair Andrews discusses a disturbing development for Alvin Kamara, details the continuing dominance of James Robinson, and locates a WR breakout that’s occurring well under the fantasy radar. I’m moving the explanation of Expected Points (EP) and Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) to the end of the article this week, but it’s always a good refresher for new readers. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I’m…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 11 – Josh Jacobs Stars and 2 Sleepers Become Must-Own RBs

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews looks at the most important takeaway from Josh Jacobs‘ big game. Plus, Blair gives you the two sleeper candidates who’ve morphed into must-own players for Zero RB owners as he examines the running back workloads for every AFC backfield ahead of Week 11. Almost every fantasy team can…...

What Metrics Are Most Important for WR Evaluation? Machine Learning Provides Several Surprising Answers – The Wrong Read, No. 68

In the 68th edition of the Wrong Read, Blair Andrews uses a random forest to help you find the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation. A couple of years ago, I did a fun study called the Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide to determine which metrics best correlated with NFL success. That was a good first step, but it had a couple of holes…....

The 2021 Backfield Dominator Ratings Uncover 3 Sleepers and 1 Surprising Superstar in the Making

Every year there are college running backs whose counting stats underrate (or overrate) their true ability. This is especially true following the 2020 season, in which many teams played only a handful of games. Among the most powerful adjustments we can make in order to correct for the problem of counting stats is to use the Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). If you’ve forgotten or perhaps…...

Just How Crazy Was 2020? Insights from the Win the Flex App and Strategies for 2021 Drafts

Drafting successfully means, at least in part, picking the right kinds of players and avoiding the wrong kinds. We provide a lot of guidance at RotoViz on who the right and wrong kind of players to draft are. Still, getting the player selection tactics down is only part of the solution for finding the game-changing win rates we know are possible. Shawn Siegele has detailed…...

You’re Probably Targeting Upside and Safety in the Wrong Parts of Your Draft … And Killing Your Best Ball Win Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 67

The previous Wrong Read looked at best ball win rates as a function of age and experience. The surprising finding is that at almost every position, younger and less experienced players underperform. Two factors combine to make this the case. First, the optionality profile of best ball leagues makes them less ideal for players with a wide range of outcomes than traditional redraft leagues. If…...

Are Your Best Ball Teams Too Young? Age, Experience, Upside, and Optionality in Redraft and Best Ball – The Wrong Read, No. 66

Anyone who spends much time perusing this site will soon realize we tend to have a strong youth bias. We’re constantly searching for the next rookie sensation, and much of our dynasty advice comes down to selling your stars — especially at RB — while you can still get your leaguemates to pay elite-level prices for them. Nearly always, we advise trying to make your…...

Justin Jefferson and the Value of Checking All the Boxes: Why We Picked Him and How to Do It Again – The Wrong Read, No. 65

Justin Jefferson finished his rookie season with 1,400 receiving yards — the most for a rookie WR this century. His 64.2 receiving FPOE trail only Odell Beckham and A.J. Brown. His 274.2 PPR points trail only Beckham and Anquan Boldin. Yet going into the 2020 season, Jefferson was just the ninth player picked in FFPC rookie drafts. Likewise, Brown was the 10th player picked in…...

2021 FFPC Playoff Challenge Projections: What Expected Points Are Telling Us Ahead of the Postseason

If you’re playing in the FFPC Playoff Challenge, some helpful data to bring into the contest with you would be playoff projections. A feature of the RotoViz Screener that often gets overlooked is the ability to look at playoff games and even to create objective projections based on a linear regression. There are a lot of ways to create powerful models, but in what follows…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 17 – Dynasty Buy or Sell Edition

Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 17. This week, we look for the top dynasty buy and sell candidates. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...

Stefon Diggs Had One of the Best Playoff Runs Ever, and He Was Still Overshadowed: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 16

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 16. A RotoViz favorite becomes (almost) the fantasy playoff MVP, and we look at just how strange a season it’s been. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. It’s worth putting Stefon Diggs’ last three…...

2 Surprise RBs Outperform and Rookie WRs Keep Making History: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 15

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 15. This week, we crown a new dynasty WR1. How does he compare to dynasty WR1s from years past? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. Even Bad Players Are Sometimes Good We’ve profiled J.D…....

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – The Colts Revive Their Two-Headed Monster and the Steelers Get a RotoViz Subscription

Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 15, including the emergence of multiple top rookies and a familiar strategy the Steelers are using as they try to hold on to a playoff bye. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Is Ezekiel Elliott Toast?

Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the NFC ahead of Week 14 in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Is it time to move on from Ezekiel Elliott? You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB…...

You Can Win with the Worst RB in the NFL, but What About the Two Worst RBs? What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 13. Backup RBs continued to underperform while our favorite rookies continued to make cases for dynasty startup first-round status. And we finally answer the question: do you really need RBs in the FFPC? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 13 – One-Week Fill-Ins Underperform and an Unexpected Superstar Cements His Role

Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 13, including the emergence of an unexpected superstar, in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB stars. This…...

You Can Win by Starting the Worst RB in the NFL, But Probably Not the Worst WR: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 12. Some inefficient players still manage performances you can live with, while some will destroy your chance at a title. Some players put up Week 12 performances you couldn’t win without. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end…...

An Extreme Zero-RB Proof of Concept In Action, and the Surprisingly Efficient Sleeper You Might Want to Add for a Playoff Run

Blair Andrews looks back at the season for an extreme Zero-RB FFPC Main Event team, and also details the important developments in NFC backfields ahead of Week 12. Check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on the AFC. Zero running back teams don’t always make the playoffs. But when they do, it’s usually because they’ve hit on some breakout RBs in the later rounds. However, you…...

James Robinson Redeems the Rookie RBs: What Expected Points Are Telling Us So Far in 2020

Blair Andrews discusses a disturbing development for Alvin Kamara, details the continuing dominance of James Robinson, and locates a WR breakout that’s occurring well under the fantasy radar. I’m moving the explanation of Expected Points (EP) and Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) to the end of the article this week, but it’s always a good refresher for new readers. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I’m…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 11 – Josh Jacobs Stars and 2 Sleepers Become Must-Own RBs

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews looks at the most important takeaway from Josh Jacobs‘ big game. Plus, Blair gives you the two sleeper candidates who’ve morphed into must-own players for Zero RB owners as he examines the running back workloads for every AFC backfield ahead of Week 11. Almost every fantasy team can…...

What Metrics Are Most Important for WR Evaluation? Machine Learning Provides Several Surprising Answers – The Wrong Read, No. 68

In the 68th edition of the Wrong Read, Blair Andrews uses a random forest to help you find the most important metrics for wide receiver evaluation. A couple of years ago, I did a fun study called the Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide to determine which metrics best correlated with NFL success. That was a good first step, but it had a couple of holes…....

The 2021 Backfield Dominator Ratings Uncover 3 Sleepers and 1 Surprising Superstar in the Making

Every year there are college running backs whose counting stats underrate (or overrate) their true ability. This is especially true following the 2020 season, in which many teams played only a handful of games. Among the most powerful adjustments we can make in order to correct for the problem of counting stats is to use the Backfield Dominator Rating (BDR). If you’ve forgotten or perhaps…...

Just How Crazy Was 2020? Insights from the Win the Flex App and Strategies for 2021 Drafts

Drafting successfully means, at least in part, picking the right kinds of players and avoiding the wrong kinds. We provide a lot of guidance at RotoViz on who the right and wrong kind of players to draft are. Still, getting the player selection tactics down is only part of the solution for finding the game-changing win rates we know are possible. Shawn Siegele has detailed…...

You’re Probably Targeting Upside and Safety in the Wrong Parts of Your Draft … And Killing Your Best Ball Win Rates – The Wrong Read, No. 67

The previous Wrong Read looked at best ball win rates as a function of age and experience. The surprising finding is that at almost every position, younger and less experienced players underperform. Two factors combine to make this the case. First, the optionality profile of best ball leagues makes them less ideal for players with a wide range of outcomes than traditional redraft leagues. If…...

Are Your Best Ball Teams Too Young? Age, Experience, Upside, and Optionality in Redraft and Best Ball – The Wrong Read, No. 66

Anyone who spends much time perusing this site will soon realize we tend to have a strong youth bias. We’re constantly searching for the next rookie sensation, and much of our dynasty advice comes down to selling your stars — especially at RB — while you can still get your leaguemates to pay elite-level prices for them. Nearly always, we advise trying to make your…...

Justin Jefferson and the Value of Checking All the Boxes: Why We Picked Him and How to Do It Again – The Wrong Read, No. 65

Justin Jefferson finished his rookie season with 1,400 receiving yards — the most for a rookie WR this century. His 64.2 receiving FPOE trail only Odell Beckham and A.J. Brown. His 274.2 PPR points trail only Beckham and Anquan Boldin. Yet going into the 2020 season, Jefferson was just the ninth player picked in FFPC rookie drafts. Likewise, Brown was the 10th player picked in…...

2021 FFPC Playoff Challenge Projections: What Expected Points Are Telling Us Ahead of the Postseason

If you’re playing in the FFPC Playoff Challenge, some helpful data to bring into the contest with you would be playoff projections. A feature of the RotoViz Screener that often gets overlooked is the ability to look at playoff games and even to create objective projections based on a linear regression. There are a lot of ways to create powerful models, but in what follows…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 17 – Dynasty Buy or Sell Edition

Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 17. This week, we look for the top dynasty buy and sell candidates. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding…...

Stefon Diggs Had One of the Best Playoff Runs Ever, and He Was Still Overshadowed: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 16

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 16. A RotoViz favorite becomes (almost) the fantasy playoff MVP, and we look at just how strange a season it’s been. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. It’s worth putting Stefon Diggs’ last three…...

2 Surprise RBs Outperform and Rookie WRs Keep Making History: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 15

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 15. This week, we crown a new dynasty WR1. How does he compare to dynasty WR1s from years past? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end of the article. Even Bad Players Are Sometimes Good We’ve profiled J.D…....

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 15 – The Colts Revive Their Two-Headed Monster and the Steelers Get a RotoViz Subscription

Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 15, including the emergence of multiple top rookies and a familiar strategy the Steelers are using as they try to hold on to a playoff bye. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: NFC Week 14 – Is Ezekiel Elliott Toast?

Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the NFC ahead of Week 14 in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. Is it time to move on from Ezekiel Elliott? You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB…...

You Can Win with the Worst RB in the NFL, but What About the Two Worst RBs? What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 13

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 13. Backup RBs continued to underperform while our favorite rookies continued to make cases for dynasty startup first-round status. And we finally answer the question: do you really need RBs in the FFPC? For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 13 – One-Week Fill-Ins Underperform and an Unexpected Superstar Cements His Role

Blair Andrews explores the changing backfield situations in the AFC ahead of Week 13, including the emergence of an unexpected superstar, in the Ultimate Zero RB Watch List. You don’t have to draft a Zero RB team to win at fantasy football, but it helps. Whether you did go Zero RB or not, all teams can benefit from finding some waiver wire RB stars. This…...

You Can Win by Starting the Worst RB in the NFL, But Probably Not the Worst WR: What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 12

Blair Andrews looks back at the leaders in expected points and fantasy points over expectation after Week 12. Some inefficient players still manage performances you can live with, while some will destroy your chance at a title. Some players put up Week 12 performances you couldn’t win without. For an explanation of what expected points and fantasy points over expectation are, head to the end…...

An Extreme Zero-RB Proof of Concept In Action, and the Surprisingly Efficient Sleeper You Might Want to Add for a Playoff Run

Blair Andrews looks back at the season for an extreme Zero-RB FFPC Main Event team, and also details the important developments in NFC backfields ahead of Week 12. Check out Shawn Siegele’s companion piece on the AFC. Zero running back teams don’t always make the playoffs. But when they do, it’s usually because they’ve hit on some breakout RBs in the later rounds. However, you…...

James Robinson Redeems the Rookie RBs: What Expected Points Are Telling Us So Far in 2020

Blair Andrews discusses a disturbing development for Alvin Kamara, details the continuing dominance of James Robinson, and locates a WR breakout that’s occurring well under the fantasy radar. I’m moving the explanation of Expected Points (EP) and Fantasy Points Over Expectation (FPOE) to the end of the article this week, but it’s always a good refresher for new readers. In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I’m…...

Ultimate Zero RB Watch List: AFC Week 11 – Josh Jacobs Stars and 2 Sleepers Become Must-Own RBs

The Ultimate Zero RB Watch List provides analysis for Zero RB and RB-heavy owners alike. Blair Andrews looks at the most important takeaway from Josh Jacobs‘ big game. Plus, Blair gives you the two sleeper candidates who’ve morphed into must-own players for Zero RB owners as he examines the running back workloads for every AFC backfield ahead of Week 11. Almost every fantasy team can…...

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