PGA

PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots, and Ownership Projections for The PLAYERS Championship

The PLAYERS Championship is being held once again at TPC Sawgrass – which, of course, is famous for the island green of the 17th hole. It’s a Pete-Dye-designed par 72 that plays right around 7,200 yards. Trouble abounds at Sawgrass with 88 bunkers and 17 water hazards, so finding accuracy will help. For more info on the course and trends, check out yesterday’s article.

Checking The Chalk

Tiger Woods ($10,500) is fresh off of a WD and is at an interesting price in a stacked field. He’s made five starts here since 2009, not counting his 2010 withdrawal. In that span, he has a win, and has made every cut. Woods’ game was clicking in Mexico, hitting 80 percent of greens in getting up and down at a 73 percent clip when he missed. There’s some risk with the injury, but he’ll be the topic of many conversations this week. Jason Day ($9,200) also withdrew last week and his status is worth monitoring as he needed cortisone shots last week.

Another late Sunday tee time for Rory McIlroy ($10,800), but another final-round fizzle. His last five starts have resulted in top six finishes so it’s hard to really nitpick here. But, as a top-three salary option at his ownership, you have to assume that a win is necessary to return the value you’d want.

The rest of the field is pretty wide open at the time of this writing. As content comes out over the rest of Tuesday night and Wednesday things will change rapidly in a field like this. Make sure you scroll all the way down to the bottom and check out the latest run of ownership projections to stay up to date before lock.

GPP Pivots

It’s hard to label anyone above $9,500 a true pivot, as I think this ownership goes pretty flat overall up top. Each golfer in that range has its merits and is worth a look. You could blindly pick whoever projects to be the lowest owned in that range and feel pretty good in tournaments. Ownership aside, Justin Thomas ($11,400) is my favorite play up top.

Adam Scott ($8,200) is the definition of a GPP play. He’s been up and down lately. When everything clicks, he’s finished in the top 20. Four of his past seven starts have hit that threshold. Unfortunately, the other three were missed cuts. If you can take the variance that comes along with his performance lately, Scott is worth a look this week. On average in his starts at Pete Dye courses, he’s highest in the field in DK scoring under $8,500.

Patrick Cantlay’s ($8,700) recent form has been stellar, with six of his last seven starts resulting in top-15 finishes. Cantlay has only missed three cuts since this time last year. He came out firing at TPC Sawgrass last year to an early lead before finishing in 23rd place. The previous year, in 2017, he managed a 22nd-place finish.

I’m partial to the Aussies in the $7,000 range. Marc Leishman ($7,600) seems mispriced down here. He’s made 17 straight cuts, including 11 top-25 finishes. Cameron Smith ($7,600) is at the same price and is coming off of a missed cut which could keep his ownership down. There’s certainly some risk given that he struggled to a 50 percent GIR clip last week, but I think that was an aberration on Friday last week and not something that continues.

I know you’re sitting on the edge of your seat wondering if I’m going to mention Jason Kokrak ($6,700). The numbers speak for themselves at this point. He’s up to 15 straight made cuts and has been in the top 20 in five of his past six starts. Kokrak has hit at least 60 percent of GIR and fairways in each of his past three starts. If he keeps it in play and hits greens at that rate, look out this weekend.

Cash Locks

The cash locks have been continuing to roll. Last week, we had a 3rd place finish from Tommy Fleetwood and a T10 effort from  Kokrak. That brings the season total to 18-of-20 made cuts with 13 top-20 finishes. This week I’m going to roll with Justin Thomas, for obvious reasons. And for my cheaper option, I’m going to hop back in with Gary Woodland ($7,500). The brand is strong with chasing GIR and fading putting. People will look at Woodland’s 36th-place finish at PGA National and think he didn’t play great. He hit nearly 70 percent of GIR that week though, and just didn’t bring a hot putter. If the putter clicks and he has that many birdie opportunities this week, Woodland will factor in over the weekend.

The PLAYERS Championship - Ownership Projections & Model Ratings

Player NameSalaryOwn%Percentile
Rory McIlroy1080016.101.00
Justin Thomas1110016.250.99
Charles Howell III73009.200.99
Tiger Woods1050018.500.98
Dustin Johnson1140016.100.97
Matt Kuchar800016.100.97
Hideki Matsuyama830016.400.96
Russell Knox69007.740.95
Jim Furyk71005.610.94
Byeong Hun An68007.300.94
Ian Poulter760014.500.93
Webb Simpson85009.400.92
Luke List70003.960.92
Patrick Cantlay870014.810.91
Tommy Fleetwood880014.800.90
Tyrrell Hatton73003.100.90
Jason Kokrak67006.300.89
Justin Rose102009.400.88
Bud Cauley66000.810.88
Jhonattan Vegas61002.500.87
Gary Woodland750011.570.86
Aaron Baddeley63001.320.86
Andrew Putnam65001.310.85
Stewart Cink64000.420.84
Keegan Bradley74007.000.83
Zach Johnson70002.800.83
Kevin Na67001.290.82
Jon Rahm950012.920.81
Patrick Reed81006.900.81
Phil Mickelson79008.500.80
Jimmy Walker70000.830.79
Chris Kirk64004.000.79
Tony Finau84007.500.78
Cameron Smith76005.800.77
Ryan Moore70001.970.77
Trey Mullinax60001.420.76
Brandt Snedeker69001.090.75
Si Woo Kim77005.500.74
Brian Gay63000.340.74
Brooks Koepka1000015.100.73
Jason Day920018.000.72
Jordan Spieth89006.000.72
Adam Hadwin72001.890.71
Michael Thompson72002.000.70
Keith Mitchell68003.690.70
Sungjae Im68005.540.69
Kevin Tway68000.710.68
Ryan Armour62000.370.68
J.B. Holmes70001.400.67
Bubba Watson73005.940.66
Brian Stuard61000.180.66
Peter Uihlein65000.500.65
Talor Gooch71001.070.64
Adam Scott820014.500.63
Charl Schwartzel75001.100.63
Chez Reavie67002.430.62
Xander Schauffele900014.950.61
Billy Horschel74007.000.61
Vijay Singh61000.830.60
Ollie Schniederjans61000.180.59
Sung Kang60001.830.59
Marc Leishman76009.100.58
Henrik Stenson78007.500.57
Wyndham Clark65000.710.57
Matt Wallace67006.600.56
Scott Brown63000.200.55
Francesco Molinari860016.270.54
Michael Kim62000.160.54
Lucas Bjerregaard65001.350.53
Nick Watney64000.460.52
Brendan Steele63001.410.52
Scott Langley60000.150.51
Paul Casey790015.100.50
Cheng Tsung Pan68000.740.50
Sergio Garcia910019.500.49
Thorbjorn Olesen70001.250.48
Brian Harman68000.720.48
Kevin Streelman65000.800.47
Cameron Champ77001.400.46
Seamus Power62000.100.46
Lucas Glover71009.700.45
Emiliano Grillo72003.450.44
Matthew Fitzpatrick69006.000.43
J.T. Poston65000.270.43
Alex Cejka60000.100.42
Scott Stallings66000.560.41
Harold Varner III65002.700.41
Andrew Landry62000.360.40
Russell Henley69000.910.39
Nick Taylor61000.090.39
Patrick Rodgers66001.030.38
Branden Grace74005.710.37
Kyle Stanley71001.190.37
Troy Merritt61000.230.36
Hao Tong Li73000.300.35
Dominic Bozzelli62000.580.34
Harris English61000.100.34
Jason Dufner66000.610.33
Danny Willett71001.010.32
Rory Sabbatini63000.980.32
Alexander Noren75002.200.31
Rickie Fowler970012.500.30
Ryan Palmer66004.060.30
Vaughn Taylor63001.550.29
Anirban Lahiri63000.700.28
Brandon Harkins61000.140.28
Aaron Wise72001.000.27
John Huh62000.100.26
Grayson Murray60000.060.26
Charley Hoffman66000.990.25
Kevin Kisner70007.660.24
Danny Lee68001.240.23
Tyler Duncan62000.100.23
Whee Kim60000.640.22
Ted Potter Jr.63000.390.21
Brice Garnett60000.240.21
Kiradech Aphibarnrat69001.380.20
Louis Oosthuizen78003.500.19
Ryan Blaum64000.220.19
Martin Trainer63000.890.18
Pat Perez71001.250.17
Martin Laird64000.270.17
Corey Conners67000.380.16
Bryson DeChambeau93007.200.15
Abraham Ancer69001.270.14
Scott Piercy64000.460.14
Shane Lowry72001.470.13
Chesson Hadley67006.320.12
Patton Kizzire65000.950.12
Satoshi KODAIRA60000.710.11
Daniel Berger67000.980.10
Austin Cook66000.600.10
Kelly Kraft64000.290.09
Sam Ryder65001.270.08
Sam Saunders60000.100.08
Richy Werenski62000.280.07
Rafa Cabrera Bello740014.500.06
Bronson Burgoon62000.430.06
Joel Dahmen62000.310.05
Tom Hoge61000.090.04
Beau Hossler69001.170.03
Eddie Pepperell68001.450.03
J.J. Spaun66000.490.02
Martin Kaymer73001.300.01
Denny McCarthy64000.320.01
Adam Long67000.600.00

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive