PGA

PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots, and Ownership Projections for The Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Tour turns its attention to Bay Hill Club & Lodge for this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. The course is a Par 72 that plays over 7,400 yards. For more info on how the course plays and stats you should be targeting, check out yesterday’s article.

Checking the Chalk

Bryson DeChambeau ($9,700) is trending toward being one of, if not the, highest owned golfers when all is said and done this week. It makes sense, too. While he didn’t exactly put his best foot forward in Mexico, he still has four worldwide wins in his last 11 starts. At $9,700 in this field, he’s been talked about a bunch and provides some flexibility if you want to pay up a bit but don’t want to dip into the $10,000 or $11,000 range.

At the bottom of the $9,000 range, Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100) looks like he’ll soak up his fair share of ownership as well. He’s on a streak of 17 made cuts worldwide and has seen 54 percent of his rounds wind up in the 60s during that stretch. Over that span, he has a dozen top-20 finishes. He also has some course history, going 2-for-2 at Bay Hill with 10th and 26th place finishes.

Ian Poulter ($8,000) looks like a misprice down at $8,000 given his recent form. Over his past four starts, he has two third-place and two sixth-place finishes. Even without his A-game on approach, he managed to card all four rounds under 70 in Mexico. If he’s dialed in with his irons this week, it’s hard to envision him not posting a solid finish given the state of his all-around game.

GPP Pivots

At the very top of the salary scale, it appears ownership will be relatively flat at the moment. That can always change, so make sure you scroll down to the actual ownership projections below as we approach lock.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300) is getting close. He’s now made 14 straight cuts dating back to last August. Over that timeframe, he has 10 top-20 finishes. The third-place finish at Torrey Pines was his best chance to win recently, but he was done in by a shaky Saturday. If he’s relatively low-owned for this range, I don’t know how you can ignore him. I believe he’ll be hoisting a trophy over the next couple of starts: why not this week?

Charles Howell ($8,600) always gets knocked for “lacking upside.” My model and his recent results disagree. He’s made six straight cuts in 2019, including five finishes inside of the top 20. In his last 10 starts, Howell has scored at least 80 DK Points on eight occasions.

If you’re looking for a way to fit in the McIlroys and Roses of the world, you’ll need to go low to fill out your roster. A couple of guys that pop out based on the course fit model are Joaquin Niemann ($6,900) and Corey Conners ($6,300). Through the beginning of his young career, Niemann seems to prefer Bermudagrass over Poa. He struggled to start the year but found his putting stroke a little bit last week. If he can get his irons a bit sharper, we could see the 20-year-old Chilean phenom start to pop on leaderboards again. Conners is more of a dart throw. His game would definitely fit here, but he hasn’t found his groove yet this season. I wouldn’t go crazy on him, but throwing him in a lineup if you’re MME-ing something like the Birdie ($3 20-Entry Max) makes some sense.

Cash Locks

We continued our good run in this section last week with a Jason Kokrak top-10 finish. Gary Woodland was a bit disappointing but made the cut and finished 36th. That brings the season total up to 16/18 made cuts with 11 top-20 finishes. Here’s who I’m willing to go 100 percent on this week.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,100) for all the reasons stated above. Jason Kokrak ($8,300) for a couple of simple reasons. I don’t think he’s done with this hot streak. He’s now made 14 straight cuts with eight top-25 finishes in that span. This is a great course fit for him. According to the model, he has the third strongest course fit of anyone in the field.

Ownership Projections and Model Results - Arnold Palmer Invitational

NameDK$Ownership %Model Rating
Justin Rose1070024.81.00
Rory McIlroy1140020.90.98
Jason Kokrak830014.20.97
Charles Howell III86007.40.94
Lucas Glover820016.70.90
Tommy Fleetwood910018.40.90
Harold Varner III69004.90.89
Bubba Watson800011.40.84
Keith Mitchell75006.50.81
Brooks Koepka1020015.10.79
Corey Conners63002.60.79
Luke List790012.90.78
Rickie Fowler10400140.76
J.B. Holmes78002.50.72
Keegan Bradley840012.90.70
Cameron Champ76006.50.69
Byeong Hun An750013.40.68
Hideki Matsuyama930014.60.68
Bryson DeChambeau970024.70.67
Joaquin Niemann69002.10.66
Jason Day990017.30.64
Rafa Cabrera Bello750019.20.61
Adam Schenk67001.30.61
Francesco Molinari900014.40.60
Billy Horschel88009.10.58
Aaron Wise70006.10.57
Scott Stallings72001.80.56
Phil Mickelson92009.20.56
Thorbjorn Olesen710030.54
Charley Hoffman70002.50.52
Marc Leishman950017.30.51
Braden Thornberry66000.80.48
Shane Lowry71002.20.48
Hudson Swafford65000.90.46
Beau Hossler73002.50.46
Kevin Streelman68001.30.45
Brendan Steele64000.60.45
Jhonattan Vegas70001.10.44
Carlos Ortiz64000.20.43
Patrick Rodgers690040.42
Stewart Cink62002.70.42
Henrik Stenson810010.40.38
Sam Burns630020.37
Nate Lashley69006.50.35
Ollie Schniederjans62001.10.35
J.T. Poston710050.35
Sam Saunders65000.90.35
Adam Hadwin77007.90.33
Martin Laird67001.30.32
Danny Willett70006.70.32
Chesson Hadley72004.10.31
Kyle Stanley71002.40.31
Scott Piercy73001.60.31
Martin Trainer64000.050.29
Cheng Tsung Pan68001.50.29
Hao Tong Li740060.28
Danny Lee66003.30.28
Sam Ryder67001.80.27
Matt Every740090.26
Jimmy Walker65000.70.26
Ryan Moore73005.50.26
Harris English69000.450.25
Bronson Burgoon60002.10.25
Ian Poulter8000210.25
Zach Johnson770012.80.24
Dominic Bozzelli65001.20.21
Tyrrell Hatton87006.30.20
Michael Thompson760090.20
Hunter Mahan64000.20.17
Tim Herron61000.10.17
Sam Horsfield67000.70.17
Sung Kang67001.10.17
Daniel Berger850050.17
Patrick Reed890011.10.16
Andrew Landry64000.30.16
Louis Oosthuizen79006.40.16
Matt Wallace74005.50.16
Vijay Singh63000.10.15
Ernie Els66002.50.14
Bill Haas68000.60.13
Jason Dufner67000.70.13
Robert Streb60000.10.13
Anders Albertson600010.12
Aaron Baddeley66000.30.11
Bud Cauley75004.90.11
Graeme McDowell69001.30.10
Justin Suh63000.10.10
Michael Kim62001.10.10
Anirban Lahiri62000.40.10
Abraham Ancer730010.10
Robert Gamez610000.10
J.J. Spaun660020.09
Martin Kaymer72000.90.09
Si Woo Kim78008.10.08
Viktor Hovland600020.08
Brandt Snedeker720050.08
Ryan Armour62002.60.08
SungJae Im70002.40.07
Eddie Pepperell68002.10.07
Pat Perez70001.20.07
Matthew Fitzpatrick730020.07
D.A. Points61000.10.06
Kevin Na72006.10.06
Roger Sloan680010.06
Scott Brown67001.10.06
Steve Stricker71001.40.06
Ted Potter Jr.61000.30.05
Chris Kirk69001.20.05
Vaughn Taylor650020.05
Richy Werenski61000.30.05
Davis Love III630010.05
Rod Perry600000.04
Brian Gay70002.30.04
Joel Dahmen63001.70.04
Scott Langley660010.03
Austin Cook65000.90.03
Adam Long60000.30.03
Brian Harman64001.30.03
Kiradech Aphibarnrat71005.50.01
Brice Garnett61000.30.01
Kevin Kisner72004.70.01
Ryan Blaum62000.10.00

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive