NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Model Projections for Auto Club Speedway

If you caught the On the Daily NASCAR DFS show this week, you’ll hear that I promised the full projections for Auto Club Speedway. I’m using data from 2013-2018 at Auto Club Speedway, plus the two large oval races this year at Atlanta and Las Vegas as the basis for the model.

The model projections are based off drivers finishing, and doesn’t project DNFs (did not finish). The points projections are uploaded into the NASCAR DFS Lineup Optimizer, which you should use in conjunction with the NASCAR Driver Sim Scores App and the NASCAR Splits App to analyze this weekend’s race.

Here are the projections, and be sure to catch the live show I’ll be doing breaking down the slate at 12:30pm ET/9:30am PT on Sunday over at my Twitch page. Check out my Twitter feed for more details. Good luck this weekend!

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSal
Austin Dillon116.368.335.2116.977400
Kevin Harvick28.6537.0128.6652.2912100
Aric Almirola311.7417.966.9331.489700
Kyle Busch47.2733.4314.2748.9612600
Joey Logano510.8323.7513.3439.9410400
Denny Hamlin612.0613.917.3433.029400
Ryan Newman717.982.452.4316.877300
Chase Elliott812.086.724.0831.568800
Clint Bowyer913.331.972.9228.298600
Ryan Blaney109.857.4012.0842.208400
Jimmie Johnson1114.151.073.8628.917800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1216.680.573.1224.347600
Brad Keselowski136.6714.4312.1453.3311500
Chris Buescher1420.260.162.1218.587100
Kyle Larson158.138.019.4849.4910800
Ty Dillon1623.390.042.0414.246100
Daniel Hemric1713.460.952.8335.746300
Erik Jones1810.311.592.3142.938200
David Ragan1925.930.051.1511.735900
Daniel Suarez2014.810.351.8735.408000
Kurt Busch2112.818.367.6245.279100
William Byron2218.420.722.8730.776900
Alex Bowman2312.400.731.2342.997000
Matt DiBenedetto2424.130.502.4921.126500
Paul Menard2519.720.060.7829.976700
Ryan Preece2627.090.030.7616.206200
Martin Truex Jr279.199.118.1458.9610000
Bubba Wallace2825.920.040.6720.515700
Michael McDowell2925.970.020.9221.535800
Corey Lajoie3027.110.010.6420.115200
Ross Chastain3130.010.010.5715.265600
Matt Tifft3229.040.010.6218.235400
Landon Cassill3329.750.021.5318.265300
Cody Ware3432.930.070.5212.424800
Reed Sorenson3532.980.070.6113.365000
BJ McLeod3632.990.020.6514.345100
Garrett Smithley3733.000.070.5215.294700
Joey Gase3833.830.010.6714.674900

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive