The Ultimate WR Prospect Metrics Guide: Which College Production Measurements Are the Most Predictive of NFL Success? – The Wrong Read, No. 54
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Welcome to the 54th installment of The Wrong Read. We know that college production is more important than athleticism at the WR position, but what are the best and most predictive ways to measure that production? This article compares 45 different ways to measure college receiving production. My goal this offseason is to put together some new WR prospect models to help us predict early career NFL fantasy scoring. As this is an ambitious task, and taking longer than I want it to, I figured I’d start with something a little simpler — an exploration of what metrics are actually predictive of NFL fantasy scoring. So, I gathered up a bunch of different college production metrics for every receiver from the 2005 to 2016 draft classes who played in an NFL game. The following table shows the results of running each of the metrics through a linear regression against average PPR fantasy points in a player’s first three years in the league. Below the table I’ll include some observations about how best to interpret these findings. Before displaying the table, however, I should explain some of the terms that might not be familiar: