PGA

PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots and Ownership Projections for the WGC Mexico Championship

The Tour heads down to Mexico for the WGC Mexico Championship. Club de Golf Chapultepec is a par 71 course that plays right around 7,350 yards. It also features poa annua greens and kikuyu grass in the fairways and rough like Riviera last week. The course is at extreme altitude, though, so it will play shorter than the scorecard suggests. The event features just 72 golfers and there will be no cut. For a more in-depth course preview and a look at the trends, check out yesterday’s article.

Checking the Chalk

Justin Thomas ($11,800) comes in as one of the hottest golfers on the planet. Yes, I saw the shank on Sunday and the rough finish. No, I don’t care. Three of his last four starts have resulted in top-three finishes. Over that span, Thomas has carded a dozen rounds in the 60s. He hasn’t hit less than 70 percent of greens since the beginning of September. I’m not letting a few bad holes scare me off him. A price tag of $11,800 may seem high to some but it’s appropriate given his form.

He showed the flash last week. I tried to warn you last week that Tiger Woods ($9,500) probably won’t show up in the pivot section again this year. That third round 65 at a course he “can’t play at” might’ve done the trick to get people on him. Matt Kuchar ($7,700) and Charles Howell III ($7,800) will see quite a bit of ownership this weekend. They both have a “safety” vibe to them but they haven’t been strangers to upside. They both have hit 75-plus DK Points in five of their past six events.

Emiliano Grillo ($6,900) is the only sub-$7,000 golfer that I see gaining any real popularity. He’s chronically underpriced and this week is no real exception. Grillo could easily be $7,500 and I don’t think many people would be surprised.

GPP Pivots

Jon Rahm ($10,700) is the fourth highest priced golfer this week but you could make the argument that he should be even higher. He has seven straight top ten finishes worldwide, which is pretty good. Rahm’s approach game dipped a little bit this week, but he has hit at least 70 percent of his greens in regulation in all but one of those starts during his streak. The 24-year-old Spaniard has played this event twice already and has shot 70 or better in all but one round.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) seems like he’s back. He’s been through a rough stretch, but those woes seem to be behind him now, though, as he’s hit at least two-thirds of greens in regulation in 11 of 12 starts. Matsuyama’s last three starts have resulted in no worse than a T15 finish.

Since the start of the Fall Swing, Gary Woodland ($7,900) has struck the ball well. With the lone exception being the Sony Open, Woodland has hit at least 70 percent of greens in regulation. During that timeframe, he’s made eight starts. Six of those eight starts have resulted in top-10 finishes. Woodland has played 31 rounds during that stretch with 21 rounds in the 60s.

Lucas Bjerregaard ($6,500) is an interesting cheap option with some upside. His price allows the salary flexibility to fit a bunch of top options and has some upside in his own right. The 27-year-old from Denmark is 51st in the world which could go overlooked since we don’t see him too often stateside. He’s hit at least two-thirds of his greens in regulation in 13 of 14 events. During Bjerregaard’s past 11 events dating back to mid-August, he’s finished in the top ten six times including a win on the European Tour.

Cash Locks

A mixed bag for the cash locks last week — both made the cut but had very different weekends. Woods charged up the leaderboard in the third round but cooled off in the final round to finish in a respectable 15th place. Adam Hadwin started strong but went 77-77 on the weekend to finish in 75th place. That brings the cuts made to 12/14 for the season with nine top-20 finishers. Here are this week’s cash locks:

  • Jon Rahm ($10,700)
  • Tommy Fleetwood ($8,200)
    • He popped as the No. 1 golfer in my course fit model. I’ve talked about him for weeks here in various capacities and nothing has changed. Fleetwood has elite upside and is built for a no-cut event where he can hunt for flagsticks.

WGC Mexico Ownership and Model Projections

Player NameSalaryOwnershipModel Percentile Rank
Justin Thomas1180023.10.94
Dustin Johnson1150015.10.97
Rory McIlroy1110015.00.96
Jon Rahm1070020.30.93
Rickie Fowler103009.90.47
Bryson DeChambeau1000012.20.44
Brooks Koepka980013.50.54
Tiger Woods950020.10.76
Phil Mickelson930013.30.58
Xander Schauffele910016.40.38
Hideki Matsuyama900019.10.90
Tony Finau890013.60.65
Jordan Spieth880010.60.51
Marc Leishman870013.20.66
Paul Casey860011.40.85
Patrick Cantlay85008.60.82
Bubba Watson840012.10.59
Webb Simpson830014.00.63
Tommy Fleetwood820022.01.00
Francesco Molinari81009.50.62
Sergio Garcia800018.00.48
Patrick Reed80005.40.56
Gary Woodland790017.00.86
Ian Poulter790015.00.70
Rafael Cabrera-Bello780016.10.27
Charles Howell780015.20.99
Matt Kuchar770017.10.92
Billy Horschel77006.20.89
Matthew Fitzpatrick76007.00.21
Byeong-Hun An76004.70.78
Louis Oosthuizen*75005.70.79
Cameron Smith740015.00.42
Hao-Tong Li*74005.20.39
Tyrrell Hatton730011.00.55
Joost Luiten*73009.60.61
Matt Wallace*73005.00.01
Henrik Stenson*720010.50.87
Shane Lowry72003.90.83
Kevin Kisner72003.70.06
Alexander Noren710013.90.34
Lee Westwood*71004.00.23
Chez Reavie71000.60.45
Keegan Bradley70004.80.69
Tom Lewis*70003.80.41
Thorbjorn Olesen*70001.10.80
Emiliano Grillo690012.80.68
Eddie Pepperell*69003.60.32
Kevin Na69001.00.35
Branden Grace68009.10.72
Shubhankar Sharma*68006.00.04
Russell Knox68005.00.73
Kiradech Aphibarnrat*67002.30.00
Patton Kizzire67001.00.20
Richard Sterne*67000.60.07
Danny Willett66009.90.37
Abraham Ancer66007.90.17
Lucas Bjerregaard*650010.50.31
Aaron Rai*65006.80.14
David Lipsky*65000.30.28
Kyle Stanley64003.00.49
Aaron Wise64002.20.25
Erik Van Rooyen*64000.30.52
Jake McLeod*63000.10.10
Sang-Hyun Park*63000.10.11
Satoshi KODAIRA*62000.40.03
Shaun Norris*62000.10.18
Alexander Bjork*61002.90.13
Shugo Imahira*61002.30.24
George Coetzee*60000.10.16
Matthew Millar*60000.10.09
Updated on 2/20 @ 9 PM.

*Denotes a golfer who has less than 4 rounds on PGA Tour this year

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive