PGA

PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots and Ownership Projections for the Genesis Open

The Tour heads about five hours down the coast to Southern California for the Genesis Open this week. As usual, this event will be played at Riviera CC. In Riviera, we have a Par 71 course that plays just about 7,350 yards. If you want to see some of the trends and the course preview, head over to yesterday’s article.

Checking the Chalk

Bubba Watson ($9,700) is a course history darling. He’s sure to be a popular option this week given that he’s won this event multiple times and we know that Bubba plays well where Bubba plays well. Mixed in with his three wins at this track are three missed cuts, a WD and a couple of finishes in the teens. It isn’t just course history for the lefty …Watson played well in Phoenix, hitting nearly 80 percent of greens in regulation en route a T4 finish. If not for the 124 putts he needed, he could’ve been even higher up the leaderboard in the desert. That type of upside would certainly make people think of him as a GPP play, but he’ll likely be the chalk of the $9,000 range.

Three or four years ago, a guy as owned as Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) was last week who disappointed would be barely owned the following week. There’s no denying that he turned in a very disappointing last week at $10,300 but the price drop is too much. He’ll be popular again this week thanks to his overall form. Fleetwood has hit at least two-thirds of the greens in regulation for ten straight events, now. While results have varied depending on his putter, he’s outperformed his salary based scoring expectation in seven of ten starts. The Englishman made the cut here last year, despite not having his “A” game.

Adam Hadwin ($7,800) is another golfer that has a blend of course history and form. He has made all four cuts in his career at this event. In those starts, he’s finished in the top 25 three times with a sixth-place finish. Hadwin has a 31.3 SOFA, which is his DK Scoring Over Field Average which is sixth best in this year’s field. Recently, he’s played well, too. The Canadian is on a streak of seven straight made cuts with four top 25s.

GPP Pivots

Jon Rahm ($10,400) is the king of the castle in my model. It’s a blend of top-25 finish and top-15 DK points, and it puts Rahm’s chances at 72 percent to hit one of those thresholds. The Spaniard is on a tear lately and showing no signs of slowing down. Since the calendar flipped to 2019, he’s finished in the top ten in all four of his starts with 11 rounds in the 60s. In a week full of course history narratives, I’ll take the 24-year-old who’s making his debut at this event.  

Another favorite from the model is Patrick Cantlay ($9,000). He wound up third with just over a 69 percent chance at a Top 15 DK scoring performance this week. Cantlay played well here last year, finishing in fourth place. He lost his ball-striking a bit at Torrey Pines but WD from Pebble Beach last week to prepare for Riviera. His game fits and he seems ready to break out in a strong field.

A cheap pivot option that’s interesting to me is Brandon Harkins ($6,800). He didn’t have his best stuff at Torrey Pines, missing the cut while shooting 80 on Friday. Since then, Harkins has found his way into the top 30 in both starts he’s made. Four of his eight rounds wound up in the 60s over that stretch and he’s hitting over 75 percent of his greens in regulation.

Cash Locks

Last week was an unmitigated disaster for the cash locks. Shane Lowry was just the second missed cut from this section out of 12 golfers picked and Tommy Fleetwood only managed a 48th-place finish. That brings the total to 10/12 made cuts and seven top-15 finishes.

  • Tiger Woods ($9,500) put together a 20th-place finish last time out. This seems like the perfect place for Tiger to jumpstart his 2019 from a fit perspective and it might be one of the only times Eldrick doesn’t show up in the chalk section.
  • Adam Hadwin ($7,800) is worth the ownership this week for all the reasons above.

Genesis Open - Ownership Projections and Model Results

Player NameSalaryFinal RunModel Percentile Rating
Jon Rahm1040015.841.00
Tony Finau910021.250.99
Patrick Cantlay900016.500.99
Dustin Johnson1140016.200.98
Hideki Matsuyama930026.000.97
Rory McIlroy1070015.200.96
Justin Thomas1100017.800.96
Charles Howell III790015.480.95
Tiger Woods950014.000.94
Matt Kuchar850015.670.93
Jason Kokrak760015.100.93
Charley Hoffman71004.050.92
Keegan Bradley730015.500.91
Harold Varner70006.890.90
Sung-Hoon Kang74004.570.90
Jim Furyk69003.670.89
Xander Schauffele940018.000.88
Bud Cauley74004.930.88
Kevin Tway71002.120.87
Phil Mickelson990010.000.86
Scott Stallings75009.900.85
Trey Mullinax72000.580.85
Luke List74007.630.84
Jhonattan Vegas65003.540.83
Tommy Fleetwood860022.100.82
Brandon Harkins68002.570.82
Chez Reavie83007.000.81
Andrew Putnam75002.800.80
Kevin Streelman71001.820.79
Adam Hadwin780017.980.79
James Hahn68001.040.78
Martin Laird76004.920.77
Marc Leishman890011.100.77
Julian Etulain63000.800.76
Cameron Smith840018.400.75
Branden Grace810011.300.74
Sung-jae Im77006.630.74
Cameron Champ760011.970.73
Bryson DeChambeau1020013.060.72
Bubba Watson970016.000.71
J.B. Holmes72003.010.71
Chris Stroud68000.970.70
Jimmy Walker73000.890.69
Hudson Swafford69001.320.68
Ollie Schniederjans70000.530.68
Tyrrell Hatton77007.070.67
Carlos Ortiz63002.200.66
Bill Haas69000.320.65
Steve Stricker69000.870.65
John Senden61000.020.64
Peter Uihlein68001.350.63
Adam Scott870015.200.63
Scott Langley66001.990.62
Ryan Armour68000.620.61
Davis Love III64000.120.60
Kevin Na75007.800.60
Kenny Perry61000.040.59
Danny Lee67001.350.58
Paul Casey880011.300.57
Louis Oosthuizen800012.200.57
Cheng Tsung Pan68001.540.56
Brian Stuard68000.340.55
Charl Schwartzel70001.550.54
Keith Mitchell64003.100.54
JT Poston71002.440.53
Jordan Spieth92009.560.52
Stephan Jaeger63000.060.52
Martin Kaymer71000.680.51
Andrew Landry67000.520.50
Nick Taylor67000.860.49
Abraham Ancer73005.540.49
Cameron Davis64001.590.48
Sam Saunders66001.490.47
Danny Willett73003.680.46
Scott Brown66000.120.46
Ernie Els67000.270.45
Sergio Garcia820014.900.44
Tyler Duncan63000.040.43
Si Woo Kim74002.500.43
Michael Kim65000.120.42
Grayson Murray61000.990.41
Adam Schenk64000.750.40
Russell Henley71000.960.40
Harris English65000.060.39
Vaughn Taylor65000.120.38
Jason Dufner69000.550.38
Brendan Steele69001.370.37
Jim Knous62000.040.36
Vijay Singh61000.040.35
Joel Dahmen70000.690.35
Brian Gay70001.270.34
Brian Harman72001.030.33
Ryan Moore73002.870.32
Aaron Wise72003.510.32
Morgan Hoffmann62000.040.31
K.J. Choi62000.630.30
Meen Whee Kim60000.260.29
Patrick Rodgers66001.850.29
Michael Block60000.020.28
Peter Malnati66000.120.27
Sam Burns68000.820.27
Cody Gribble65000.060.26
Sam Ryder64004.300.25
Rod Pampling60000.020.24
Joaquin Niemann70003.600.24
J.J. Spaun69000.920.23
Satoshi KODAIRA65000.850.22
Kyle Stanley66002.700.21
Seth Reeves61000.060.21
Beau Hossler72000.780.20
D.A. Points61000.040.19
Sang-moon Bae70000.470.18
Fredrik Jacobson60000.020.18
Robert Streb63000.280.17
Adam Long62000.280.16
Seamus Power62000.040.15
Fred Couples64000.120.15
Timothy O'Neal60000.020.14
Tae Hee Lee64000.040.13
Anders Albertson67000.290.13
Mackenzie Hughes65000.060.12
Rafael Cabrera Bello780011.900.11
Alex Cejka60000.020.10
Anirban Lahiri66000.570.10
Pat Perez67000.660.09
John Huh61000.120.08
Ted Potter Jr65000.630.07
Jonas Blixt63000.040.07
Denny McCarthy67000.510.06
Ryan Blaum63000.060.05
Bronson Burgoon63000.350.04
Kelly Kraft60000.060.04
Chase Wright62000.060.03
Hunter Mahan66000.120.02
Tom Hoge62000.060.02
Kiradech Aphibarnrat67001.630.01
Kramer Hickok64000.310.00
Updated: Wednesday 8 PM

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive