PGA

PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots and Ownership Projections for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We’re back in California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This event is best known for 6-hour rounds and a plethora of celebrity sightings. If you want an in-depth look at the courses, check out yesterday’s article.

Checking the Chalk

Jason Day ($10,900) is going to be popular this week. Since the switch to this course rotation on 2010, he’s carded 15 of 27 rounds in the 60s at this event, averaging 86.6 DK points across seven starts. It’s not just course history that has people considering him this week. Day has started out his 2019 campaign with a bang. He had a 13th place finish in Hawaii and a Top 5 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He dominated the par 5s at Torrey Pines, hitting 13-under on those holes. Tony Finau ($10,600) is showing up in quite a few places as well, despite the missed cut last time out. The sentiment around him is much more mixed, so he might not be uber-chalk come this week.

Chez Reavie’s ($9,000) course history is a bit of a question mark heading into this week. In eight starts here, he’s made just four cuts. That would typically lead people to believe that it just isn’t a great fit for him at Pebble Beach. Last year, though, he finished in second place. It’s a bit of a conundrum if we look at it through the course-history lens. As far as his recent form, though, he comes in with two top-five finishes over his past three starts. Those results have been largely propped up by his game around the green. Reavie is on a streak of four straight events averaging 27 putts per round and has been relying on scrambling to stay in contention.

All the cool kids are starting to hate on Jordan Spieth ($9,400). Rooting against Spieth is the equivalent of stroking your handlebar mustache and bragging about how you liked The Lumineers before they got big. There are legit concerns about his game, though, as it seems that he’s developed a case of the yips on the greens. Someone this popular with this many question marks might give some people pause while others dive headfirst into the fact that he won this event two years ago.

As we dip below this range, some other golfers may become popular. I’ll add notes to this section if anyone becomes extremely chalky, but as of now, ownership looks pretty flat in the $8,000 and $7,000 ranges.

GPP Pivots

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300) hasn’t missed a cut since July. He has hit at least two-thirds of greens in regulation in all of his starts dating back to August. My model gives him a 47 percent chance at finishing in the top 15 of DK scoring, which is tied for the best chance with some guy named Dustin Johnson ($11,400).

Shane Lowry ($8,800) could get somewhat popular as the week goes on, but he isn’t the chalk of this range. He comes in with great form. Lowry is fresh off of a win and a 12th-place effort in his last two times out. He’s hit more than 70 percent of greens in regulation over the past two events. Since 2015, he’s made the start here each year going 4-for-4 in made cuts. During that four-event stretch, he’s averaged a SOFA (Scoring Over Field Average) of nearly 15 DK points.

Michael Thompson ($7,400) is an interesting name down in the mid-$7,000 range. If not for a couple of 71s the last two times out on Sunday, we would be hearing a lot about Thompson this week. Those shaky Sundays have kept him just off the first page of the leaderboard, and he comes in under the radar this week. Six of his past eight rounds have resulted in rounds in the 60s.

Cash Locks

We rolled out Justin Thomas and Byeong-Hun An and were rewarded with two made cuts. Thomas finished in third place. An came out and mashed the first three days and then stumbled to T20 thanks to a rough round on Sunday. Good showing once again, that brings the cash locks to 9-of-10 for made cuts with an average finish of just above 11th place for the cut makers. This week, we’re rolling with:

  • Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300)
  • Shane Lowry ($8,800)

Model Trends

This is the first time I’m including this section here, so I figured I’d give a little background. The model this week is a logistic regression that is meant to determine the chance a golfer has of finishing in the top 15 of DK scoring based on their profile. It’s essentially a course fit model based on driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, and SG: Around the Green. The results of that model will be below with the current field, but here are some of the trends I noticed based on the data from previous events.

Driving Distance

  • There’s a slight emphasis on distance here. In a vacuum, leading the event in driving distance gives you about a 30 percent chance at finishing in the top 15 of DK scoring. Finishing somewhere around 25th in distance drops those chances to 25 percent. Going all the way down to 50th drops you down to 20 percent.

Driving Accuracy

  • There’s literally no point in worrying about accuracy off the tee according to this model. Dropping from first to dead last in that category drops your chances from 22.98 percent to 22.53 percent.

Greens in Regulation

  • As I mentioned in the course preview article, this is a “second shot” tournament. Without taking anything else into account, leading the event in GIR gives you a 44.9 percent chance at finishing in the top 15 of DK scoring. A drop to 25th and those chances are sliced down to 27.7 percent. Go down to 50th? Not even a 15 percent chance.

SG: Around the Green

  • Believe it or not, SG: ARG is relatively important. Leading the field in that category gets you a 34 percent chance while being ranked 25th drops it down to about 25 percent. It flattens out a bit after that, as a rank of 50th in the short game leaves you around 19 percent.  

Ownership Projections & Model Results - Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Player NameSalaryOwnershipModel Rating
Dustin Johnson1140025.11.00
Jason Day1090023.40.96
Tony Finau1060017.10.83
Tommy Fleetwood1030014.00.99
Matt Kuchar1000016.50.97
Phil Mickelson960015.20.77
Jordan Spieth940022.60.70
Patrick Reed93009.00.63
Adam Scott920012.10.84
Paul Casey910013.50.79
Chez Reavie900023.10.95
Branden Grace890018.30.91
Shane Lowry880016.50.98
Adam Hadwin870011.60.93
Matthew Fitzpatrick860011.40.57
Sung-jae Im840016.40.90
Rafael Cabrera Bello830017.10.76
Brandt Snedeker820019.20.65
Russell Knox810017.40.70
Cameron Champ80007.90.84
J.B. Holmes79004.90.94
Andrew Putnam79002.10.94
Scott Piercy78007.20.75
Kevin Kisner780012.40.30
Lucas Glover770013.40.99
Russell Henley760020.90.72
Doug Ghim76007.60.24
Nick Watney750011.30.67
Charley Hoffman75008.20.59
Dylan Frittelli75003.60.38
Michael Thompson74004.50.91
Trey Mullinax740011.70.85
Ted Potter Jr74004.60.64
Si Woo Kim74003.20.45
J.J. Spaun73004.00.81
Beau Hossler73004.50.77
Kevin Streelman73009.90.68
Austin Cook73001.20.40
Pat Perez73006.20.33
Ryan Palmer72004.20.89
Talor Gooch72004.20.87
Aaron Baddeley72001.10.86
Ryan Armour72002.00.55
Matt Jones72003.20.42
Joel Dahmen72002.60.10
Corey Conners71008.10.92
Keith Mitchell71001.50.87
Martin Laird71003.00.82
Steve Stricker71004.00.65
Scott Stallings71007.00.53
Jimmy Walker71005.40.45
Chesson Hadley71008.90.33
Jim Furyk70001.80.97
Nate Lashley70002.10.80
Anders Albertson70001.10.78
Brandon Harkins70005.90.61
Vaughn Taylor70001.50.51
Brice Garnett70001.50.50
Sung-Hoon Kang70001.00.39
Tyrone Van Aswegen70000.30.23
Adam Svensson69002.70.67
Roberto Castro69002.30.49
Brian Stuard69002.30.47
Sang-moon Bae69000.30.44
Kramer Hickok69001.20.20
Roger Sloan69000.30.16
Richy Werenski69000.80.12
Scott Brown69000.30.09
James Hahn68000.40.89
Carlos Ortiz68000.30.88
Sebastian Munoz68000.30.69
Graeme McDowell68003.90.60
Dominic Bozzelli68001.00.58
David Lingmerth68000.30.53
Chris Stroud68001.10.42
Scott Langley68000.30.38
Brian Gay68006.60.27
Nick Taylor68000.30.14
Jerry Kelly67000.20.81
Hunter Mahan67001.30.79
Alex Prugh67000.20.74
Patrick Rodgers67002.80.58
Curtis Luck67000.20.52
Jim Knous67000.20.50
Sean O'Hair67000.30.28
Sepp Straka67000.30.21
Davis Love III67002.40.16
Ernie Els66000.80.96
Robert Garrigus66000.20.60
Stephan Jaeger66000.30.57
Adam Long66000.40.48
Cameron Davis66002.10.41
Michael Kim66000.30.25
Fabian Gomez66000.20.21
Rory Sabbatini66001.40.14
Kelly Kraft66000.30.13
Adam Schenk65000.20.82
Johnson Wagner65000.10.74
Tom Lovelady65000.20.69
Henry Lebioda65001.40.64
David Hearn65002.10.46
Mackenzie Hughes65000.20.34
Peter Malnati65000.20.28
Max Homa65000.70.17
John Huh65000.20.08
Sam Saunders64000.30.71
Wyndham Clark64000.80.62
Dru Love64000.10.32
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez64000.10.22
Cody Gribble64000.10.19
Wes Roach64000.10.15
Meen Whee Kim64000.40.04
Brady Schnell64000.10.04
Ho Sung Choi64000.10.00
Cameron Tringale63000.10.52
Ben Crane63000.10.36
Grayson Murray63002.10.35
Seth Reeves63000.10.30
Chase Wright63000.20.18
Alex Cejka63000.10.11
Tom Hoge63000.30.00
Joey Garber63000.20.00
Martin Piller63000.20.00
John Chin62000.20.55
Chad Collins62000.20.29
Benjamin Silverman62001.10.26
Tyler Duncan62000.10.26
Kyle Jones62000.10.25
Matt Every62001.80.19
Rod Pampling62000.10.08
Kenny Perry62000.10.07
Roberto Diaz62000.10.05
Josh Teater61000.10.62
D.A. Points61000.10.48
Julian Etulain61002.20.40
Jonas Blixt61000.10.36
Derek Fathauer61000.70.23
Martin Trainer61000.10.18
Kyoung-Hoon Lee61000.30.13
Jason Gore61000.10.11
Colt Knost61000.10.09
David Duval61000.10.06
J.J. Henry60000.10.75
Broc Everett60000.10.73
John Senden60000.10.66
Fredrik Jacobson60002.20.56
Ricky Barnes60000.20.47
Ryan Ruffels60000.40.37
Chad Campbell60000.20.31
Chris Thompson60001.10.06
Steve Jones60000.20.03
Jason Schmuhl60000.20.00
Updated: 2/6 @ 9 PM

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive