DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

PGA DFS: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Course Preview and Trends

We’re back for another event with a three-course rotation this week. This Pro-Am has been played on and off in some capacity dating back to 1948 at Pebble Beach when it was known as the Bing Crosby Pro-Am. Lloyd Mangrum won that event for you golf historians out there. It has seen different names and different courses since then but we’ve seen the same rotation since 2010. It’s important to understand how each course plays if you’re tackling a Showdown slate or perhaps betting FRL (first round leaders), but if you’re playing the week-long slate it helps to understand how the tournament plays out as a whole. To that end, the trends we’re looking at are based on the whole event, not broken down by course, specifically.

THREE COURSE ROTATION

Course Par Yardage Notes
Pebble Beach GL 72 6,816 Yards It was the 16th most difficult course out of 51 courses last year. Golfers that make the cut will get to play it twice. Once will be before the Saturday cut, the second time will be the final round on Sunday.
Monterey Peninsula CC 71 6,958 Yards Monterey Peninsula came in as just the 38th most difficult course last year. The field averaged nearly a stroke under par.
Spyglass Hill GC 72 6,953 Yards This course was 22nd most difficult in 2018, playing just 0.22 strokes under par.


AT&T Pebble Beach Pro - Am (Field Averages - Relative to Par)

 20182017201620152014
Pebble Beach GL0.22-0.10.49-1.761.39
Monterey Peninsula CC-0.940.26-0.3-2.10.25
Spyglass Hill GC-0.220.2030.51-0.80.76

PAST WINNERS

Golfer Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Ted Potter Jr. 2018 -17 124.5
Jordan Spieth 2017 -19 119.5
Vaughn Taylor 2016 -17 126.5
Brandt Snedeker 2015 -22 122.5
Jimmy Walker 2014 -11 102.5

OFF THE TEE

Of the 32 golfers who’ve scored over 100 DK points here since 2010, nine (28 percent) have hit the top 10 in driving distance compared to three (nine percent) that hit that threshold in driving accuracy. With just seven golfers from that group in the top 10 of SG: Off the Tee, it’s easy to see that when it comes to finding upside this is much more of a “second shot” event than anything else.

If we widen our lens to the 217 golfers that have finished in the top 20 of DK scoring at this event we see a similar story. Just 82 (37 percent) golfers in that group were top 20 in distance compared to 77 (35 percent) that met that rank in accuracy.

tee viz

SG:OTT Rank (Since Start of 2018) Golfer (Salary)
1 Dustin Johnson ($11,400)
2 Keith Mitchell ($7,100)
3 Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)
4 JB Holmes ($7,900)
5 Corey Conners ($7,100)
6 Trey Mullinax ($7,400)
7 Tony Finau ($10,600)
8 Cameron Champ ($8,000)
9 Dylan Fritelli ($7,500)
10 Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300)

ON APPROACH

With no off the tee stat breaking 0.05 R-Squared to DK points, we would hope we can find some signal with the approach game and we can. Greens in regulation has a 0.25 R-Squared to DK scoring since 2010 at this event. A solid approach game helps you find some upside, as well, with 13-of-32 100 point scorers finishing in the top 10 in GIR.

GIR Rank (2018) Golfer (Salary)
1 Patrick Cantlay ($9,800)
2 Adam Scott ($9,200)
3 Dustin Johnson ($11,400)
4 Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300)
5 Tony Finau ($10,600)
6 Andrew Putnam ($7,900)
7 Kevin Streelman ($7,300)
8 Jason Kokrak ($8,500)
9 Corey Conners ($7,100)
10 Shane Lowry ($8,800)

Key Stats

  • Greens in Regulation
  • SG: Around the Green
  • SG: Off the Tee
  • SG: Putting

Course History - Cheatsheet

Player NameSalaryAverage DK PointsLowest DK Point TotalHighest DK Point TotalBest Finish PositionWorst Finish PositionScoring Over Field Average (SOFA)StartsMade Cut Pct.
Dustin Johnson1140091.243.5129.0110038.0988.89%
Jason Day1090086.641.5112.526433.17100.00%
Tony Finau1060077.077.077.0232325.81100.00%
Tommy Fleetwood10300N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Matt Kuchar1000046.533.566.562100-7.5333.33%
Patrick Cantlay980073.863.089.594820.73100.00%
Phil Mickelson960084.760.5117.016532.68100.00%
Jordan Spieth940087.366.5119.512234.16100.00%
Patrick Reed930078.349.597.5610025.1683.33%
Adam Scott920053.043.562.552100-2.4250.00%
Paul Casey910091.091.091.08835.51100.00%
Chez Reavie900060.340.0103.521006.3850.00%
Branden Grace890077.077.077.0202021.51100.00%
Shane Lowry880069.858.581.5144314.84100.00%
Adam Hadwin870067.067.067.0393915.81100.00%
Matthew Fitzpatrick8600N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Jason Kokrak850063.638.085.0910010.6771.43%
Sungjae Im8400N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Rafa Cabrera Bello830049.031.580.026100-2.5366.67%
Brandt Snedeker820080.333.5123.5110027.1875.00%
Russell Knox810059.837.581.0151008.1560.00%
Cameron Champ8000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
J.B. Holmes790069.728.0105.0210016.6977.78%
Andrew Putnam790038.833.544.0100100-19.720.00%
Scott Piercy780054.936.577.5201001.4450.00%
Kevin Kisner780052.636.580.510100-0.5650.00%
Kevin Na770064.436.586.5410011.1862.50%
Lucas Glover770058.335.581.0111009.3250.00%
Doug Ghim7600N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Russell Henley760062.735.582.51510011.5366.67%
Dylan Frittelli7500N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Nick Watney750070.834.0118.0210017.5875.00%
Charley Hoffman750046.325.077.535100-5.9633.33%
Trey Mullinax740074.869.080.5144721.42100.00%
Ted Potter740068.632.0124.5110016.9450.00%
Michael Thompson740050.129.570.019100-2.4540.00%
Si Woo Kim740041.526.563.035100-10.3333.33%
Kevin Streelman730074.647.585.5610020.6887.50%
Pat Perez730067.724.0112.0410014.5988.89%
Beau Hossler730055.043.566.5431001.6250.00%
J.J. Spaun730041.041.041.0100100-10.210.00%
Austin Cook730038.038.038.0100100-17.510.00%
Aaron Baddeley720070.643.0100.5410017.3887.50%
Joel Dahmen720065.559.571.5485512.12100.00%
Matt Jones720065.225.098.0710012.1977.78%
Ryan Armour720063.533.582.5201007.4366.67%
Ryan Palmer720056.640.076.0291003.6757.14%
Talor Gooch720046.046.046.0100100-9.510.00%
Jimmy Walker710082.241.0111.0110029.0988.89%
Chesson Hadley710066.436.593.01010012.6475.00%
Keith Mitchell710064.564.564.547479.01100.00%
Steve Stricker710061.737.576.5231008.9366.67%
Scott Stallings710057.433.583.571004.7450.00%
Kyle Stanley710052.243.567.541100-1.1560.00%
Martin Laird710042.540.544.066100-10.4366.67%
Corey Conners710042.042.042.0100100-13.510.00%
Anders Albertson7000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Brandon Harkins700084.084.084.0151528.51100.00%
Vaughn Taylor700065.837.5126.5110011.8862.50%
Chris Kirk700060.336.0109.521007.1650.00%
Jim Furyk700058.434.595.071005.3785.71%
Brice Garnett700057.732.571.0191006.5366.67%
Tyrone Van Aswegen700049.425.575.026100-3.8540.00%
Sung Kang700048.611.578.517100-3.1450.00%
Nate Lashley700039.539.539.5100100-16.010.00%
Adam Svensson6900N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Kramer Hickok6900N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Bill Haas690079.079.079.08827.41100.00%
Sangmoon Bae690054.231.573.5151002.8366.67%
Roberto Castro690053.933.086.581001.3650.00%
Richy Werenski690051.344.058.558100-2.1250.00%
Scott Brown690050.734.065.030100-2.3742.86%
Brian Stuard690047.634.583.021100-7.0633.33%
Roger Sloan690038.038.038.0100100-23.410.00%
Carlos Ortiz6800N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Sebastian Munoz6800N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
James Hahn680063.935.097.0310010.8666.67%
Brian Gay680062.443.087.0810010.4785.71%
Nick Taylor680060.539.588.5101005.6450.00%
Graeme McDowell680056.036.076.071005.0250.00%
Chris Stroud680050.137.077.535100-3.9825.00%
Scott Langley680048.837.063.562100-3.8666.67%
David Lingmerth680047.822.076.041100-7.4333.33%
Dominic Bozzelli680040.837.544.0100100-12.620.00%
Jim Knous6700N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Sepp Straka6700N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Curtis Luck6700N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Patrick Rodgers670085.085.085.08829.51100.00%
Hunter Mahan670067.844.5106.5210014.7977.78%
Sean O'Hair670064.648.587.0167311.49100.00%
Alex Prugh670064.540.594.51010011.2560.00%
Davis Love III670047.824.074.520100-5.3666.67%
Jerry Kelly670036.925.050.569100-14.6520.00%
Fabian Gomez6600N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Adam Long6600N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Michael Kim6600N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Stephan Jaeger660068.068.068.0434312.51100.00%
Robert Garrigus660062.732.084.0201009.6955.56%
Kelly Kraft660059.024.5101.021006.3475.00%
Rory Sabbatini660049.234.575.015100-4.0944.44%
Ernie Els660042.840.545.0100100-15.720.00%
Cameron Davis660040.540.540.5100100-15.010.00%
Hank Lebioda6500N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Mackenzie Hughes650079.579.579.5101028.31100.00%
David Hearn650049.929.078.521100-4.4540.00%
Johnson Wagner650049.038.062.555100-6.3560.00%
John Huh650048.538.561.535100-4.9333.33%
Peter Malnati650048.332.565.035100-2.9450.00%
Max Homa650047.230.081.029100-5.9333.33%
Tom Lovelady650046.046.046.0100100-9.510.00%
Adam Schenk650042.542.542.5100100-13.010.00%
Ho Sung Choi6400N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Davis Love IV6400N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez6400N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Brady Schnell6400N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Wyndham Clark6400N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Sam Saunders640056.241.576.0151002.2862.50%
Wes Roach640054.342.566.0321005.3250.00%
Whee Kim640054.238.081.521100-0.6333.33%
Cody Gribble640036.329.043.5100100-17.120.00%
Chase Wright6300N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Joey Garber6300N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Seth Reeves6300N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Grayson Murray630064.536.093.0810011.1250.00%
Alex Cejka630060.128.587.0101006.9977.78%
Tom Hoge630058.841.071.5391003.8450.00%
Cameron Tringale630056.238.574.5131004.1757.14%
Martin Piller630043.836.549.5100100-9.230.00%
Ben Crane630042.542.542.5100100-13.010.00%
John Chin6200N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Roberto Diaz6200N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Kyle Jones6200N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Matt Every620052.638.072.0271000.5742.86%
Rod Pampling620047.126.570.027100-6.2850.00%
Chad Collins620045.528.077.034100-7.0520.00%
Kenny Perry620044.544.544.5100100-16.910.00%
Morgan Hoffmann620041.538.544.5100100-10.420.00%
Benjamin Silverman620040.040.040.0100100-15.510.00%
Tyler Duncan620034.034.034.0100100-21.510.00%
Julian Etulain6100N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Kyoung-Hoon Lee6100N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Martin Trainer6100N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Derek Fathauer610066.355.576.0236211.34100.00%
Jonas Blixt610065.347.5101.5310010.9560.00%
D.A. Points610057.822.0127.011004.9862.50%
Josh Teater610057.624.094.551004.3650.00%
Jason Gore610045.928.062.551100-9.3450.00%
Colt Knost610045.425.575.041100-9.1540.00%
David Duval610044.614.0104.02100-8.5933.33%
Broc Everett6000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Chris Thompson6000N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A0N/A
Freddie Jacobson600074.339.097.5410024.2366.67%
Ryan Ruffels600065.065.065.0606013.41100.00%
Ricky Barnes600055.829.094.031002.5850.00%
Vijay Singh600053.221.079.5251000.0955.56%
John Senden600046.729.569.527100-4.3333.33%
J.J. Henry600043.91.081.015100-9.2944.44%
Chad Campbell600040.040.040.0100100-6.410.00%
Steve Jones600018.518.518.5100100-33.810.00%
Jason Schmuhl600014.811.018.5100100-37.020.00%

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive