The Jets Have a Tight End? – Christopher Herndon’s Rookie Review

With the 2018 NFL season now seeming a long way in the past, we are continuing our look back at the performances of some of the players for whom 2018 was their first taste of NFL action. In this piece, we’ll look at a player who achieved the rarest of feats – he was a productive tight end for the New York Jets. Take a bow, Christopher Herndon. We’ll take a look back at the positives, and negatives, of Herndon’s first year in the NFL from a numbers point of view. We’ll also look at a few players who enjoyed a similar rookie season to Herndon. We’ll take a quick look at how they’ve fared since their rookie seasons. This will allow us to see a possible range of outcomes for Herndon moving forward. Then we’ll touch briefly on his outlook for 2019. In order to find some comparisons for the first year from Herndon,  I set the RotoViz Screener
to find rookies from 2008 to 2018, and selected some basic production and usage numbers as variables. I also included the draft pick. The influence of draft pick on a player’s opportunity declines over time, but it’s still relevant heading into a player’s second season. Then I asked the Screener to find seasons comparable to my target player.
Let’s take a look at the players who enjoyed similar rookie success to Herndon.

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By Neil Dutton | @ndutton13 | Archive