PGA

PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open Course Preview and Trends

We’re trading in J.K. Simmons in insurance commercials for talking dumpsters as the tour heads out to TPC Scottsdale this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. It’s hard to argue that this event boasts one of the most exciting closing stretches in golf. Between the stadium atmosphere of the par-3 16th and the risk-reward of the drivable par-4 17th, there can be some pretty intense swings if the leaderboard is packed come Sunday.

TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 course that plays about 7,260 yards. The course features 7,000-plus square foot greens which run about 12 feet on the Stimpmeter. That can lead to low scores as the winner has averaged 17.45 strokes under par here since 1990. The course isn’t without its obstacles, though. The field will have to navigate their way around 68 bunkers and three water hazards.

PAST WINNERS

Golfer Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Gary Woodland 2018 -18 129
Hideki Matsuyama 2017 -17 117
Hideki Matsuyama 2016 -14 111.5
Brooks Koepka 2015 -15 113.5
Kevin Stadler 2014 -16 115.5

OFF THE TEE

Since 1990, there have been 109 golfers to score 100-plus DK points at TPC Scottsdale. Of that group, 48 (44 percent) have finished in the top 20 of driving distance compared to 45 (41 percent) that hit that mark in driving accuracy. That might paint a picture of a pretty even split, but the length of the course definitely favors the longer hitters. Winners at this track have averaged 22nd in distance compared to 34th in accuracy off the tee. Since strokes gained has been tracked, no winner has finished outside of the top 40 in SG: OTT. That category has the strongest correlation to DK scoring of any off the tee stat.

Ott viz

According to my model, golfers that finish top 10 in driving distance have about a 7.5 percent chance of breaking 95 DK points. Dropping down to 50th in distance drops your chances down to 4.4 percent. Driving accuracy is much flatter with just a 1 percentage point drop from 5.6 percent to 4.6 percent.

Driving Distance Rank (Last 50 Rounds) Golfer (Salary)
1 Brandon Hagy ($6,100)
2 Cameron Champ ($8,300)
3 Grayson Murray ($6,400)
4 Luke List ($8,000)
5 Keith Mitchell ($7,000)
6 Bubba Watson ($8,900)
7 Trey Mullinax ($6,700)
8 Tony Finau ($9,500)
9 Harold Varner ($7,200)
10 Jhonattan Vegas ($6,800)

 

SG:OTT Rank (Last 50 Rounds) Golfer (Salary)
1 Luke List ($8,000)
2 Jon Rahm ($11,500)
3 Bubba Watson ($8,900)
4 Joaquin Niemann ($7,200)
5 Abraham Ancer ($7,700)
6 Gary Woodland ($9,900)
7 Cameron Champ ($8,300)
8 JB Holmes ($7,600)
9 Tony Finau ($9,500)
10 Brendan Steele ($7,400)

ON APPROACH

With winning scores in the high teens, birdie opportunities will be important once again this week. Of the 109 golfers who have broken 100 DK points here, 71 (65 percent) have finished in the top 20 in greens in regulation. Golfers in the group have averaged 53 greens in regulation hit for the week.

According to my model, golfers that finish in the top 10 in greens in regulation have about an 11.5 percent chance of breaking 95 DK points. Dipping down to 50th in greens hit results in just below a 3 percent chance of hitting that threshold.

GIR Rank (Last 50 Rounds) Golfer (Salary)
1 Billy Horschel ($8,800)
2 Jon Rahm ($11,500)
3 Jason Kokrak ($7,300)
4 Branden Grace ($8,000)
5 Chez Reavie ($8,700)
6 Luke List ($8,000)
7 Kevin Streelman ($6,900)
8 Gary Woodland ($9,900)
9 Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700)
10 Keith Mitchell ($7,000)

Key Stats

  • Greens in Regulation
  • Driving Distance
  • SG: OTT
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • SG: Putting

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive