PGA

PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots and Ownership Projections for Waste Management Phoenix Open

We’re back at it again this week, this time in Arizona. The Tour is heading to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. If you want an in-depth look at the course, check out yesterday’s article.

Checking the Chalk

Water is wet, the Patriots are in the Super Bowl and Tony Finau ($9,500) is popular in PGA DFS. Typically, course history is a driver of ownership so it’s a bit of a shock that he’s this popular. Finau has missed the past three cuts here with his best finish a T-22 four years ago. He’s coming off of a solid showing where he picked apart the par 5s, going 9-under at Torrey Pines last week.

Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700) is also a popular option. For some strange reason, he was priced at $8,000 last week and proceeded to tear up Torrey Pines, finishing in third place. Hideki had the putter working and hit 75 percent of his greens last week. Couple solid form with four top-five finishes, including two wins, and you are all aboard the train to chalk city.

Fan favorites Phil Mickelson ($9,300) and Rickie Fowler ($9,400) are shaping up to be highly owned as well. In Phil’s last three events here he hasn’t finished outside of a T-16 finish. He’s also coming off of a second-place finish where he lost strokes on the greens a few weeks ago in the desert. Fowler’s M.O. in the past has been to play poorly at Torrey Pines and then come out of nowhere at TPC Scottsdale and play well. He made the cut last week in California but didn’t play particularly well, only breaking 73 once for the week.

Talor Gooch ($7,500) is on a heater right now. He’s played the past two weeks and finished in fourth and third place, respectively. Dating back to October, he’s on a streak of 11 rounds in the 60s. In my first run of projections, he’s just under 20 percent so you have to make the decision whether or not you think the 27-year-old can sustain this level of play. Just below Gooch, Joel Dahmen ($6,800) rode an incredibly hot putter to a ninth-place finish at Torrey Pines and looks like he’ll see double-digit ownership in Scottsdale this weekend. He averaged just 26 putts per round.

GPP Pivots

As of now, it looks like Matsuyama is going to see more ownership than Jon Rahm ($11,500) and Justin Thomas ($11,000) after the first run. According to my model, which predicts the chances of an 85-plus DK point performance, all three of the top salary golfers have a similar range of outcomes, with Rahm having the highest likelihood. The play here is whoever ends up being lowest owned out of the three.

Billy Horschel ($8,800) is one of the streakiest golfers on the planet. He smashed on the par 5s last week, going 9-under and finishing in 8th place. Horschel hit over 70 percent of his greens and had a warm putter for most of the week. Once he sees some putts roll in, Horschel could put together birdies in bunches at TPC Scottsdale. Chez Reavie ($8,700) is a certified cutmaker. Per the model, he has quite a bit of upside here as well.

Byeong-Hun An ($8,600) is an enticing option, as well. He popped in the model with a 94 percent chance of scoring 55-plus DK points this week. An wrapped up his week in Dubai with three straight rounds of 68 as he finished 12th there. It’s a bit shaky given that it’s his first start stateside in a while, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take thanks to his upside.

It’s another Jason Kokrak ($7,300) week. He popped really high in the model as well, with over a 30 percent chance of having an 85-plus DK point performance. He’s hit at least 75 points in seven of his last eight starts, so it’s not like it’s out of the realm of possibility. Half of his rounds over the past five events (10 of 20) have been in the 60s.

I will have far too much FOMO if I don’t have at least one roster with Matthew Wolff ($6,000). At stone minimum, he allows the flexibility to fit in whoever you want up top. The Oklahoma State product has the game to compete on Tour for a long time and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in contention sooner rather than later. Pairing him with Anders Albertson ($6,300) leaves you over $9,400 per spot left to fill up with studs.

Cash Locks

We rolled out Finau and Luke List and were rewarded with two made cuts. Finau finished in a tie for 13th and List finished in a lackluster 40th.

  • Justin Thomas ($11,000)
  • Byeong-Hun An ($8,600)

Ownership Projections - WMPO

NameSalaryFinal RunModel:85+ DK Points
Jon Rahm1150013.829%
Justin Thomas1100010.721%
Hideki Matsuyama1070024.819%
Xander Schauffele1010011.23%
Gary Woodland990011.529%
Webb Simpson970015.46%
Tony Finau950017.427%
Rickie Fowler940024.111%
Phil Mickelson930020.38%
Matt Kuchar920017.011%
Cameron Smith910010.53%
Adam Hadwin90009.36%
Bubba Watson890014.15%
Billy Horschel880014.020%
Chez Reavie870012.815%
Byeong-Hun An860018.927%
Andrew Putnam85005.89%
Alexander Noren840011.42%
Cameron Champ830012.524%
Daniel Berger820016.28%
Brandt Snedeker81003.81%
Branden Grace80003.217%
Luke List800014.433%
Austin Cook79005.97%
Tyrrell Hatton790014.66%
Zach Johnson78006.87%
Keegan Bradley780015.04%
Ryan Palmer77007.07%
Abraham Ancer770011.86%
J.B. Holmes76003.111%
Martin Laird760012.83%
Emiliano Grillo760014.77%
Si Woo Kim75003.21%
Kyle Stanley75006.612%
Talor Gooch750014.12%
Patton Kizzire74001.13%
Scott Piercy74002.311%
Kevin Kisner74002.52%
Russell Knox74002.88%
Brendan Steele740014.115%
Charl Schwartzel73001.22%
JT Poston73001.33%
Martin Kaymer73001.31%
Sung-Jae Im73005.67%
Jason Kokrak73008.831%
Ryan Moore72001.54%
Cheng Tsung Pan72001.811%
Kevin Na72002.32%
Harold Varner72003.923%
Joaquin Niemann72008.318%
Lucas Glover720013.318%
Bill Haas71000.22%
Chesson Hadley71000.84%
Beau Hossler71002.04%
J.J. Spaun71002.14%
Sam Burns71002.25%
Kevin Tway71003.79%
Andrew Landry70000.62%
Sung-Hoon Kang70000.81%
Robert Streb70000.83%
Richy Werenski70000.97%
Brian Harman70001.72%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat70004.92%
Keith Mitchell70006.230%
Kevin Streelman69000.216%
Bud Cauley69000.62%
Brian Stuard69000.72%
Harris English69000.83%
Russell Henley69001.25%
Ryan Armour69001.23%
Charley Hoffman69001.45%
Nick Watney68000.310%
Jimmy Walker68000.32%
Peter Uihlein68000.34%
Jhonattan Vegas68000.36%
Aaron Baddeley68000.54%
Ted Potter Jr68001.02%
Joel Dahmen680011.25%
Nick Taylor67000.22%
Ollie Schniederjans67000.23%
Patrick Rodgers67000.39%
Brian Gay67001.12%
Danny Lee67001.116%
Stewart Cink67002.815%
Trey Mullinax670010.26%
Hunter Mahan66000.214%
Jonas Blixt66000.21%
Stephan Jaeger66000.23%
Chase Wright66000.22%
Chris Kirk66000.62%
Vaughn Taylor66000.72%
Scott Stallings66001.617%
Carlos Ortiz65000.26%
John Huh65000.22%
Rory Sabbatini65000.23%
Sean O'Hair65000.24%
Denny McCarthy65000.22%
Steve Stricker65001.96%
Sam Ryder65005.58%
Chris Stroud64000.22%
Tom Hoge64000.22%
Adam Long64000.24%
Brice Garnett64000.24%
Grayson Murray64000.65%
Bronson Burgoon64001.410%
James Hahn64001.99%
Morgan Hoffmann63000.22%
Jim Herman63000.23%
Fredrik Jacobson63000.21%
Adam Schenk63000.214%
Mackenzie Hughes63000.62%
Anders Albertson63006.312%
Kenny Perry62000.22%
Colt Knost62000.22%
Brandon Harkins62000.23%
Michael Kim62000.21%
Kelly Kraft62000.22%
John Catlin62000.22%
Cody Gribble61000.23%
Michael Hopper61000.22%
Seamus Power61000.24%
Ryan Blaum61000.22%
Satoshi Kodaira61000.52%
Brandon Hagy61000.86%
K.J. Choi60000.22%
Alex Cejka60000.22%
Tyler Duncan60000.213%
Meen Whee Kim60000.21%
Matthew Wolff60007.41%
These projections were updated at 8 PM on Wednesday 1/30/2019.

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive