PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots and Ownership Projections for Waste Management Phoenix Open
We’re back at it again this week, this time in Arizona. The Tour is heading to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. If you want an in-depth look at the course, check out yesterday’s article.
Checking the Chalk
Water is wet, the Patriots are in the Super Bowl and Tony Finau ($9,500) is popular in PGA DFS. Typically, course history is a driver of ownership so it’s a bit of a shock that he’s this popular. Finau has missed the past three cuts here with his best finish a T-22 four years ago. He’s coming off of a solid showing where he picked apart the par 5s, going 9-under at Torrey Pines last week.
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,700) is also a popular option. For some strange reason, he was priced at $8,000 last week and proceeded to tear up Torrey Pines, finishing in third place. Hideki had the putter working and hit 75 percent of his greens last week. Couple solid form with four top-five finishes, including two wins, and you are all aboard the train to chalk city.
Fan favorites Phil Mickelson ($9,300) and Rickie Fowler ($9,400) are shaping up to be highly owned as well. In Phil’s last three events here he hasn’t finished outside of a T-16 finish. He’s also coming off of a second-place finish where he lost strokes on the greens a few weeks ago in the desert. Fowler’s M.O. in the past has been to play poorly at Torrey Pines and then come out of nowhere at TPC Scottsdale and play well. He made the cut last week in California but didn’t play particularly well, only breaking 73 once for the week.
Talor Gooch ($7,500) is on a heater right now. He’s played the past two weeks and finished in fourth and third place, respectively. Dating back to October, he’s on a streak of 11 rounds in the 60s. In my first run of projections, he’s just under 20 percent so you have to make the decision whether or not you think the 27-year-old can sustain this level of play. Just below Gooch, Joel Dahmen ($6,800) rode an incredibly hot putter to a ninth-place finish at Torrey Pines and looks like he’ll see double-digit ownership in Scottsdale this weekend. He averaged just 26 putts per round.
As of now, it looks like Matsuyama is going to see more ownership than Jon Rahm ($11,500) and Justin Thomas ($11,000) after the first run. According to my model, which predicts the chances of an 85-plus DK point performance, all three of the top salary golfers have a similar range of outcomes, with Rahm having the highest likelihood. The play here is whoever ends up being lowest owned out of the three.
Billy Horschel ($8,800) is one of the streakiest golfers on the planet. He smashed on the par 5s last week, going 9-under and finishing in 8th place. Horschel hit over 70 percent of his greens and had a warm putter for most of the week. Once he sees some putts roll in, Horschel could put together birdies in bunches at TPC Scottsdale. Chez Reavie ($8,700) is a certified cutmaker. Per the model, he has quite a bit of upside here as well.
Byeong-Hun An ($8,600) is an enticing option, as well. He popped in the model with a 94 percent chance of scoring 55-plus DK points this week. An wrapped up his week in Dubai with three straight rounds of 68 as he finished 12th there. It’s a bit shaky given that it’s his first start stateside in a while, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take thanks to his upside.
It’s another Jason Kokrak ($7,300) week. He popped really high in the model as well, with over a 30 percent chance of having an 85-plus DK point performance. He’s hit at least 75 points in seven of his last eight starts, so it’s not like it’s out of the realm of possibility. Half of his rounds over the past five events (10 of 20) have been in the 60s.
I will have far too much FOMO if I don’t have at least one roster with Matthew Wolff ($6,000). At stone minimum, he allows the flexibility to fit in whoever you want up top. The Oklahoma State product has the game to compete on Tour for a long time and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in contention sooner rather than later. Pairing him with Anders Albertson ($6,300) leaves you over $9,400 per spot left to fill up with studs.
We rolled out Finau and Luke List and were rewarded with two made cuts. Finau finished in a tie for 13th and List finished in a lackluster 40th.
- Justin Thomas ($11,000)
- Byeong-Hun An ($8,600)
Ownership Projections - WMPO
|Name||Salary||Final Run||Model:85+ DK Points|
|Si Woo Kim||7500||3.2||1%|
|Cheng Tsung Pan||7200||1.8||11%|
|Ted Potter Jr||6800||1.0||2%|
|Meen Whee Kim||6000||0.2||1%|