PGA

PGA DFS: Top Plays, GPP Pivots, and Ownership Projections for the Farmers Insurance Open

The Tour is making its way out from the desert to the coast of California for the Farmers Insurance Open. It’s another multi-course event, though this week we have just two courses to deal with. If you’re looking for trends and a course preview, check out yesterday’s article.

Checking The Chalk

Some dude named Eldrick is making his 2019 debut this week. Tiger Woods ($10,500) is priced at just the fourth most expensive golfer. I have him as the second highest owned golfer on the slate after my first run of ownership projections. We saw him turn into the Tiger of old down the stretch last season as he put the exclamation point on his season with a victory at the Tour Championship. We’ll see how he comes out to start 2019 after a lengthy layoff. Tony Finau ($9,900) is paired with Tiger and also is projected to be highly owned this weekend. We haven’t seen Tony in a full field since Mayakoba, but he finished 16th there thanks to a hot putter. Since his last missed cut in the middle of June, he’s made 14 starts and finished in the top 10 on eight occasions.

Just below them, fan favorite Rickie Fowler ($9,300) could see a high share of the ownership this week. You have to go back to May to find a Fowler started that resulted in anything outside of the top 30. In the dozen starts he’s had since The PLAYERS, he’s had five top-10 finishes.

We often see the middle tier of golfers produce the highest ownership levels and this week is shaping up to be no exception. Hideki Matsuyama ($8,000) sits at the top of the ownership heap after the first run of the model. Hideki was in a decent position at the Sony Open until he shot 73 on Sunday to finish outside of the top 50. His ball striking was on point, though, and it was just a shaky putter that let him down. If you know anything about golf, you know that doesn’t come as much of a surprise. If Matsuyama does have a preferred surface, it’s Poa, which could bode well for him this week. It’s just a question of whether you want to eat that much chalk or not.

PGA DFS Twitter has dubbed this SpaunSZN. J.J. Spaun ($7,300) has some serious backing and has the results to prove it when it comes to ball striking. He hit nearly 75 percent of greens in regulation at the Desert Classic last week and eclipsed that mark in each of his last three starts over the fall swing. Spaun also has course history in his favor with ninth and 23rd place finishes over the last two years here. With an emphasis on distance this week, Kevin Tway ($7,200) is showing up in a lot of models this week around the industry.

GPP Pivots

The $9,500 and up range produced quite a few surprises when I ran my first top 15 model. Jon Rahm ($11,400) quietly finished in sixth place last week and as a former winner here obviously fits the course. He’s tied for sixth in my model this week as well, so I’m more than happy to lock him in as a potentially overlooked option this week. Rahm is currently seventh in the OWGR.

9500chalk

In the middle tier of golfers, Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) and Luke List ($7,700) look like they’ll see ownership in the low teens but have excellent chances to crack the top 15. Cantlay’s last three events have resulted in top-10 finishes, and he’s averaging over 100 DK points over that span. List is coming off of a missed cut but on Saturday he shot a 67 to flirt with the cutline. He carded just two bogeys in that third round to go along with seven birdies. Perhaps the most important stat of his week was that he avoided the signature blow up hole. A couple more made putts and the story on List changes dramatically.7595chalk

I put Jason Kokrak ($7,100) in this section last week and he rewarded us with an 18th-place finish. This course makes sense for him from a distance perspective. Kokrak found some ball striking last week as he hit over three-quarters of his greens in regulation. His par 4 scoring was excellent as well, as he went 11-under on those holes to go along with 6-under on the par 5s.

Cash Locks

Mixed bag last week as we suffered the first MC of the cash lock section with Joaquin Niemann. Rahm did finish in solo sixth place though, so hopefully that helped salvage some of your lineups. Here are the two guys I’m willing to go all in on this weekend.

  • Tony Finau ($9,900)
  • Luke List ($7,700)

Ownership Projections - WMPO

NameSalaryFinal RunModel:85+ DK Points
Jon Rahm1150013.829%
Justin Thomas1100010.721%
Hideki Matsuyama1070024.819%
Xander Schauffele1010011.23%
Gary Woodland990011.529%
Webb Simpson970015.46%
Tony Finau950017.427%
Rickie Fowler940024.111%
Phil Mickelson930020.38%
Matt Kuchar920017.011%
Cameron Smith910010.53%
Adam Hadwin90009.36%
Bubba Watson890014.15%
Billy Horschel880014.020%
Chez Reavie870012.815%
Byeong-Hun An860018.927%
Andrew Putnam85005.89%
Alexander Noren840011.42%
Cameron Champ830012.524%
Daniel Berger820016.28%
Brandt Snedeker81003.81%
Branden Grace80003.217%
Luke List800014.433%
Austin Cook79005.97%
Tyrrell Hatton790014.66%
Zach Johnson78006.87%
Keegan Bradley780015.04%
Ryan Palmer77007.07%
Abraham Ancer770011.86%
J.B. Holmes76003.111%
Martin Laird760012.83%
Emiliano Grillo760014.77%
Si Woo Kim75003.21%
Kyle Stanley75006.612%
Talor Gooch750014.12%
Patton Kizzire74001.13%
Scott Piercy74002.311%
Kevin Kisner74002.52%
Russell Knox74002.88%
Brendan Steele740014.115%
Charl Schwartzel73001.22%
JT Poston73001.33%
Martin Kaymer73001.31%
Sung-Jae Im73005.67%
Jason Kokrak73008.831%
Ryan Moore72001.54%
Cheng Tsung Pan72001.811%
Kevin Na72002.32%
Harold Varner72003.923%
Joaquin Niemann72008.318%
Lucas Glover720013.318%
Bill Haas71000.22%
Chesson Hadley71000.84%
Beau Hossler71002.04%
J.J. Spaun71002.14%
Sam Burns71002.25%
Kevin Tway71003.79%
Andrew Landry70000.62%
Sung-Hoon Kang70000.81%
Robert Streb70000.83%
Richy Werenski70000.97%
Brian Harman70001.72%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat70004.92%
Keith Mitchell70006.230%
Kevin Streelman69000.216%
Bud Cauley69000.62%
Brian Stuard69000.72%
Harris English69000.83%
Russell Henley69001.25%
Ryan Armour69001.23%
Charley Hoffman69001.45%
Nick Watney68000.310%
Jimmy Walker68000.32%
Peter Uihlein68000.34%
Jhonattan Vegas68000.36%
Aaron Baddeley68000.54%
Ted Potter Jr68001.02%
Joel Dahmen680011.25%
Nick Taylor67000.22%
Ollie Schniederjans67000.23%
Patrick Rodgers67000.39%
Brian Gay67001.12%
Danny Lee67001.116%
Stewart Cink67002.815%
Trey Mullinax670010.26%
Hunter Mahan66000.214%
Jonas Blixt66000.21%
Stephan Jaeger66000.23%
Chase Wright66000.22%
Chris Kirk66000.62%
Vaughn Taylor66000.72%
Scott Stallings66001.617%
Carlos Ortiz65000.26%
John Huh65000.22%
Rory Sabbatini65000.23%
Sean O'Hair65000.24%
Denny McCarthy65000.22%
Steve Stricker65001.96%
Sam Ryder65005.58%
Chris Stroud64000.22%
Tom Hoge64000.22%
Adam Long64000.24%
Brice Garnett64000.24%
Grayson Murray64000.65%
Bronson Burgoon64001.410%
James Hahn64001.99%
Morgan Hoffmann63000.22%
Jim Herman63000.23%
Fredrik Jacobson63000.21%
Adam Schenk63000.214%
Mackenzie Hughes63000.62%
Anders Albertson63006.312%
Kenny Perry62000.22%
Colt Knost62000.22%
Brandon Harkins62000.23%
Michael Kim62000.21%
Kelly Kraft62000.22%
John Catlin62000.22%
Cody Gribble61000.23%
Michael Hopper61000.22%
Seamus Power61000.24%
Ryan Blaum61000.22%
Satoshi Kodaira61000.52%
Brandon Hagy61000.86%
K.J. Choi60000.22%
Alex Cejka60000.22%
Tyler Duncan60000.213%
Meen Whee Kim60000.21%
Matthew Wolff60007.41%
These projections were updated at 8 PM on Wednesday 1/30/2019.

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive