PGA

PGA DFS: Sentry Tournament of Champions

The PGA Tour kicks off the 2019 calendar year with its usual stops in Hawaii. First up, is the Plantation Course at Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. If you’re interested in a deeper dive into the course and key stats to target this week, check out the course preview article from earlier in the week. It’s going to be short and sweet this week since there are fewer than 40 golfers in the field and plenty of guys who will carry high ownership.

Checking The Chalk

If you’re looking at the expensive chalk, it starts with Brooks Koepka ($10,200) and Jon Rahm ($9,800). Yes, the other guys above $9,500 will see plenty of ownership with a small field, but my early projections have Koepka and Rahm as the highest owned in this range. Koepka is No. 1 in the world coming off of a season where he won multiple majors. Motivation may be a concern for Koepka as he seems disengaged with golf in spurts, but it’s hard to imagine him not taking advantage of a course like this. Rahm had no majors but did add three worldwide wins to his resume in 2018. Last time out, he won a small, no-cut event at the Hero World Challenge. Rahm missed just three cuts in his 24 starts last season.

The mid-tier has a couple of popular options as well in Bryson DeChambeau ($8,700) and Gary Woodland ($8,000). At this point last year, DeChambeau was 99th in the world and he comes into this week’s event as No. 5 in the OWGR. After winning the Memorial back in June, he managed three victories in his final six events of the year to put a bow on an impressive season. Woodland was 22 of 27 making cuts last season and got a win in Phoenix last season to earn his invite here.  On the cheaper end of things, Brandt Snedeker ($7,400) and Billy Horschel ($7,000) are getting plenty of buzz.

Note: As of writing these were the highest owned golfers. Since then, Dustin Johnson has gained quite a bit of buzz and looks to be a popular option as people talk themselves into some cheaper options. Snedeker and Horschel still look popular, but you can add Aaron Wise ($7,500) and Keegan Bradley ($7,300) to the list of popular, cheap options.

GPP Pivots

Overall, ownership will be pretty flat at the top. It’s important to take stands on guys in the $8,000 and up range. You’ll likely be chasing your tail if you’re spread too thin up top. From a course fit perspective, Kevin Tway ($6,500) makes sense as a cheap dart throw. He’s just $6,500 and I have him projected for single-digit ownership. It is rare to get a decent play at low ownership in this type of field, but Tway fits the bill for a course like Kapalua. Note: Tway has gained quite a bit of steam and my latest projections have him as the second highest owned option at or below $7,000 behind Horschel. 

Rory McIlroy ($9,600) has the type of game that can fit Kapalua well. We could be looking at some windy days this weekend which favors a golfer like McIlroy who performs so well in windy conditions. The first run of projections has him the lowest owned of anyone above $9,000. It’s hard to argue with a golfer of his talent level at an ownership discount.

Cash Locks

Regardless of ownership, this section will have two golfers each week that I’d be willing to go 100 percent on and roll out in cash lineups.

I broke down Jon Rahm’s season above. It should be pretty obvious that he has the distance and the scoring upside to compete at a place like Kapalua. Same goes for Gary Woodland. His game off the tee has been special for the past year and I don’t see how that changes down in Hawaii. You’ll be eating a fair bit of ownership with both of these golfers in your lineup but pairing them with someone you like that’s low-owned can be a profitable play this week.

Ownership Projections

Here are the ownership projections so far. They will be updated Wednesday afternoon as well for the most up to date results before you finalize your lineups.

Ownership Projections - Farmers Insurance Open

Player NameSalaryOwn
Tony Finau990022.4
Tiger Woods1050021.6
Charles Howell III910020.4
Brandt Snedeker840020
Gary Woodland900019.6
Hideki Matsuyama800019.5
Jordan Spieth890018
J.B. Holmes79009.5
Marc Leishman970014.2
Abraham Ancer820015.6
Jon Rahm1140015.4
Rickie Fowler930015.4
Jason Day1010015.1
Xander Schauffele940014.2
Cameron Champ850014
Emiliano Grillo810013
Keith Mitchell700013.2
Alexander Noren860013.1
Luke List770012.8
Patrick Cantlay920012.7
Keegan Bradley830011.9
Justin Rose1080012.2
Rory McIlroy1110012.1
Joaquin Niemann730011.9
Cheng Tsung Pan750010.8
J.J. Spaun730010.8
Harold Varner720010.1
Patrick Reed87008.9
Kyle Stanley75008.4
Beau Hossler74008
Kevin Tway72007.7
Cameron Smith88007.6
Sung-jae Im78007.1
Aaron Wise78006.8
Daniel Berger79006.4
Nick Watney69006.4
Billy Horschel77006.3
Adam Scott75006
Branden Grace76004.9
Dominic Bozzelli69004.5
Brendan Steele71004.1
Sam Ryder67003.8
Ryan Palmer76003.7
Harris English73003.7
Jason Kokrak71003.7
Martin Laird70003.6
Charley Hoffman70003.4
Cameron Davis66003.4
Bronson Burgoon66003.2
Talor Gooch68003.1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat72003
Russell Knox74002.9
Chesson Hadley69002.9
Dylan Frittelli74002.8
Jimmy Walker72002.8
Si Woo Kim74002.7
Brian Harman71002.7
Sam Burns68002.4
Patrick Rodgers71002.2
Richy Werenski70002.2
Jhonattan Vegas69002.1
Adam Svensson68001.9
Trey Mullinax64001.9
Pat Perez72001.8
Carlos Ortiz65001.8
Ryan Moore73001.7
Charl Schwartzel72001.6
Danny Willett71001.6
Satoshi KODAIRA65001.6
Hudson Swafford73001.5
Danny Lee71001.5
Kevin Streelman68001.5
Peter Uihlein71001.4
Joel Dahmen69001.4
Brandon Harkins68001.3
Viktor Hovland67001.3
Rory Sabbatini67001.3
Michael Kim67001.3
Adam Long68001.2
Wyndham Clark63001.1
Denny McCarthy69001
JT Poston71000.9
Stewart Cink70000.9
Anders Albertson70000.9
Sung-Hoon Kang68000.9
Robert Streb67000.9
Ollie Schniederjans67000.8
Chris Kirk70000.7
Scott Langley66000.7
Sam Saunders64000.7
Braden Thornberry68000.6
Sebastian Munoz64000.6
Brice Garnett68000.5
Doug Ghim66000.5
Sean O'Hair69000.4
James Hahn66000.4
Brandon Hagy63000.4
Chris Thompson60000.4
Kramer Hickok64000.3
Meen Whee Kim64000.3
Michael Thompson70000.2
Bill Haas70000.2
Matt Jones67000.2
Tom Hoge67000.2
Scott Stallings69000.1
Bud Cauley69000.1
Ryan Blaum65000.1
Roberto Castro67000.1
Kelly Kraft65000.1
Hunter Mahan66000.1
Nick Taylor66000.1
John Huh66000.1
Roger Sloan66000.1
Alex Prugh65000.1
Stephan Jaeger65000.1
Scott Brown65000.1
Peter Malnati65000.1
Jonas Blixt65000.1
Tyler Duncan64000.1
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez64000.1
Adam Schenk63000.1
Alex Cejka63000.1
Chase Wright63000.1
Julian Etulain63000.1
Grayson Murray60000.1
Nick Hardy64000.1
Fabian Gomez64000.1
Mackenzie Hughes63000.1
Morgan Hoffmann63000.1
Cameron Tringale63000.1
Shawn Stefani62000.1
Seamus Power62000.1
Cody Gribble62000.1
John Senden62000.1
Benjamin Silverman62000.1
Ben Crane62000.1
Jim Herman62000.1
Chris Stroud62000.1
Seth Reeves61000.1
Jim Knous61000.1
Wes Roach61000.1
Henry Lebioda61000.1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee61000.1
Kyle Jones61000.1
Sang-moon Bae61000.1
Nicholas Lindheim61000.1
John Chin60000.1
Josh Teater60000.1
Sepp Straka60000.1
Rod Pampling60000.1
D.A. Points60000.1
Kenny Pigman60000.1
These projections were updated at 9 PM on Tuesday 1/22/2019.

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive