PGA

PGA DFS: Farmers Insurance Open Course Preview and Trends

For the second week in a row, the field will have a multi-course setup to contend with. The Farmers Insurance Open, as usual, is being held at Torrey Pines on both the North and South courses. We have plenty of data to back up some trends that have shown up through the years, though it’s worth noting that the North course was renovated after the 2016 tournament. Here’s a breakdown of the courses before we dive into some trends.

Course Par Yardage Notes
Torrey Pines North 72 7,250 Yards In 2018, it ranked 28th out of the 51 courses on Tour. It will host one of the pre-cut rounds this weekend.
Torrey Pines South 72 7,700 Yards In 2018, the South course was the 8th most difficult on Tour. It will host the other three rounds that the golfers will play, including both weekend rounds.

PAST WINNERS

Golfer Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Jason Day 2018 -10 108
Jon Rahm 2017 -13 116
Brandt Snedeker 2016 -6 96.5
Jason Day 2015 -9 103
Scott Stallings 2014 -9 103.5

OFF THE TEE

From a logical perspective, it makes sense that a course that approaches 7,700 yards would require some length off the tee. Luckily, the numbers bear that out as well. Yes, the North course is significantly shorter, but since cutmakers will play 54 holes on the longer course the trends are skewed towards distance overall. In my model, a drop off from 10th to 50th in driving distance drops you from a 29 percent chance to a 17 percent chance at finishing in the top 15 of DK scoring. Over the past 10 years, there have been 58 top-10 finishers. Just under 45 percent have finished in the top 20 of driving distance compared to 34 percent that hit that threshold in accuracy off the tee.

Driving Distance Rank (2018) Golfer (Salary)
1 Cameron Champ ($8,500)
2 Seth Reeves ($6,100)
3 Trey Mullinax ($6,400)
4 Rory McIlroy ($11,100)
5 Cameron Davis ($6,600)
6 Luke List ($7,700)
7 Tony Finau ($9,900)
8 Sam Burns ($6,800)
9 Keith Mitchell ($7,000)
10 Gary Woodland ($9,000)

ON APPROACH

We’ve grown accustomed to birdiefests to start the 2019 season. Depending on conditions, though, the Farmers Insurance Open can show some teeth. With winning scores ranging from 6-under to 13-under over the past five years, giving yourself a chance at birdies on the easier holes is of the utmost importance. Since 1990, only 68 golfers have broken 100 DK points at this course. That group has hit nearly 75 percent of greens in regulation. In my model, a drop off from 10th to 50th in greens in regulation resulted in a drop from a 36 percent to a 15 percent chance of finishing in the top 15 of DK scoring.

GIR Rank (2018) Golfer (Salary)
1 Patrick Cantlay ($9,200)
2 Billy Horschell ($7,700)
3 Adam Scott ($7,500)
4 Gary Woodland ($9,000)
5 Charles Howell ($9,100)
6 Jon Rahm ($11,400)
7 Kevin Streelman ($6,800)
8 Tony Finau ($9,900)
9 CT Pan ($7,500)
10 Luke List ($7,700)

Key Stats

Here are the stats I’m targeting this week, in order of importance:

  • Greens in Regulation
  • Driving Distance
  • SG: Putting (Poa)
SG: Putting on Poa (Past Five Years) Golfer (Salary)
1 Jimmy Walker ($7,200)
2 Michael Kim ($6,700)
3 Carlos Ortiz ($6,500)
4 Jason Day ($10,100)
5 Hunter Mahan ($6,600)
6 Hudson Swafford ($7,300)
7 Brian Harman ($7,100)
8 Beau Hossler ($7,400)
9 Cam Smith ($8,800)
10 Brandon Harkins ($6,800)

 

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive