Why You Shouldn’t Believe in Regression to the Mean (Sometimes): What Expected Points Are Telling Us After Week 9
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By now we have a good idea of who the best players in fantasy football are. But do we know who the best players in fantasy football should be, based on opportunity? Expected points (EP) tell most of that story. Looking at the leaders in total expected points helps us understand how players score their points, and whether we should expect that scoring to continue. Expected points measure the number of fantasy points a target or carry should score based on historical averages for targets and carries with the same down, distance, and line of scrimmage. Carries at the opponent’s 1-yard line are much more valuable than carries at the 50-yard line. Expected points express that difference numerically.