NASCAR

The Ultimate NASCAR DFS Guide for Homestead 2018

Congratulations readers, you’ve made it to the end of another long but exciting NASCAR DFS season! For the season finale at Homestead, I’m going to give a breakdown of every driver, as well as talk strategy and model performance for this final race of the year. I’ll be using the color coded system that I’ve used on past RotoViz Live shows, with:
  • Blue = dominator
  • Purple = outside dominator
  • Green = good play
  • Yellow = mediocre play
  • Red = bad play
Let’s dive right into it, first with strategy, then the model projections and accuracy, then the driver-by-driver breakdown, going by starting order.

Strategy

Homestead has a relatively high incident rate overall, thanks to the 2016 chaos that ensued late in the race. However, in three of the past four years, the incident rate has been under 18 percent. I’d look for some action and some strategy this weekend, and a three dominator race as the most likely outcome, with some possibilities of two dominators. Last year was kind of the exception with two dominators. Each of the other three races using this Championship format produced 3+ dominators. The model accuracy for Homestead isn’t super high, at only 0.58, so it’s definitely a week were getting away from the chalk is possible. Speaking of the model, let’s dive into its results.

Model Results

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By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive