PGA

PGA DFS: Mayakoba Golf Classic

The Tour makes its way south of the border to El Camaleon Golf Course for the Mayakoba Golf Classic this week. If you’re curious as to how the course has played historically and want to dive into the stats, check out yesterday’s article.

Today, we’re going to do our usual walkthrough of who’s shaping up to be popular, how lineups may be constructed and who some of the best pivots are this week. We’ll wrap up with our ownership projections. Keep in mind, that these are updated a few times during the week, so check back Wednesday night for the final run of the model.

CHECKING THE CHALK

As of the first run of projections, J.J. Spaun ($7,500) looks like he may be in the running for the highest-owned golfer on the slate. He looked excellent at the Shriners last week, gaining 8.4 strokes on approach. Spaun finished 15th in Las Vegas after a top 10 in South Korea the week before. For better or worse, another driver of ownership is course history. Over the past two seasons, Spaun has finished in the DK bonus (Top-30 finish) both times he’s played here. He’s carded six of eight rounds in the 60s over that span.

Speaking of course history, Cameron Davis ($7,400) is just below Spaun and is getting some attention this week as well. He helped Australia claim the Eisenhower Trophy a few years back and as a minimum salary option in 2016, he broke 100 DK points as he came in 15th. He can get a little wayward off the tee at times but he dominates on par 5s, making him an interesting consideration this week.

In the $8,000 range, it looks like Abraham Ancer ($8,400), Sam Ryder ($8,700), and Scott Piercy ($8,000) will be the ownership magnets. Ancer’s been putting together a solid few months. Since July, he’s made nine of 11 cuts including five top 10s. He was raised in Mexico and had an 85 DK-point performance here last year, finishing ninth. Ryder’s all about recent form. He’s made eight straight cuts and has four top 10s in that stretch. If not for a hiccup on Friday in the desert, he may have taken home the trophy last week. Piercy has finished fourth and 16th at El Camaleon over his past two starts. Over his most recent three starts, he has hit at least 75 percent of greens in regulation and has averaged over 90 DK points per start.

As of this writing, the model thinks that ownership will be relatively flat in the $10,000-plus range, with Emiliano Grillo ($9,700), Si Woo Kim ($9,200), and Luke List ($9,000) soaking up most of the ownership in the $9,000 range. Make sure to check back for the final run of ownership projections before making final lineup decisions on Wednesday night.

GPP PIVOTS

Note: This section is to look at a few options if you want to avoid the chalk at different prices . . . it doesn’t mean whatever chalk we’re listing is an automatic fade.

Making sense of the top of the salary range is vital every week in PGA. Even more so this week, as ownership looks pretty flat. Billy Horschel ($10,200) will be the lowest owned but has been trending in the wrong direction recently. After peaking at the BMW Championship, his GIR percentage has dropped each week. If Gary Woodland ($10,700) does end up as the next lowest owned, it’d be hard to argue with rostering him. He hasn’t finished outside of the Top 12 since the first week in September and has 15 of 20 rounds in the 60s during that timespan.

From an upside perspective, it appears that Joaquin Niemann ($8,800) might go under-owned this weekend. Niemann went 10 under on the par 5s at TPC Summerlin last weekend as he scored 118 DK points. As he puts the final touches on the prep for this week, he’ll be turning 20 years old. Don’t let his youth scare you though — Niemann already seems like he’s the real deal. Since turning pro after the Masters in April, the Chilean made 11 of 15 cuts with five top 10s. He’s been knocking on the door and it wouldn’t be shocking if he won this week.

Carlos Ortiz ($6,700) heads home to Mexico this week. He’s just a couple of weeks removed from a third-place finish that saw him card an eagle and 17 birdies in Mississippi. We saw a glimpse of his upside on Friday last week. Though he missed the cut, he birdied five of the last 10 holes. There have been 82,305 missed cuts in my database, which goes back to 1990. Only 441 golfers have ever missed the cut with the type of ball-striking (80.6 percent GIR and 78.6 percent fairways in regulation) that Ortiz displayed. He just couldn’t get the putter rolling correctly. If a golfer at that price finds a hot putter with elite ball-striking, you’re looking at a GPP winner.

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS

NameDK$Projection
Rickie Fowler1150014.7
Jordan Spieth1130012.2
Tony Finau1100011.7
Gary Woodland1070015.1
Billy Horschel1020011.9
Aaron Wise99009.9
Emiliano Grillo970016.4
Charles Howell III950012.9
Beau Hossler94006.4
Zach Johnson93008.8
Si Woo Kim920014.2
Cameron Champ910010.2
Luke List900014.8
J.B. Holmes89009.8
Joaquin Niemann880018.6
Sam Ryder870012.6
Ryan Moore860010.7
Chez Reavie85009.2
Abraham Ancer840018.5
Adam Hadwin83006.5
Matt Kuchar820011.9
Cheng Tsung Pan810010.6
Scott Piercy800014.4
Bill Haas79005.1
Sung-Jae Im780016.1
Patrick Rodgers78005.4
Kevin Kisner77007.9
Pat Perez77007.6
Keith Mitchell760010
Charley Hoffman76005.4
Denny McCarthy76004.9
J.J. Spaun750020.5
Kevin Chappell75009.9
Chris Kirk75005.7
Cameron Davis740014.1
Sam Burns74007.9
Martin Laird74004.6
Harold Varner73005.5
Patton Kizzire73004.7
Adria Arnau73003.2
Jamie Lovemark73003.3
Anders Albertson72007.1
Graeme McDowell72002.8
Bud Cauley72002.8
Hudson Swafford72001.5
Adam Schenk72000.9
Brian Harman71005.7
Russell Henley71004.8
Kevin Streelman71004.5
Ryan Armour71003.3
Peter Malnati71000.8
Robert Streb70005.4
Viktor Hovland70002.6
Anirban Lahiri70002.2
Jhonattan Vegas70001.6
Stephan Jaeger70001.5
Sam Saunders70001.3
Danny Lee690012.4
Bronson Burgoon69007.7
Brian Gay69004.6
Jason Dufner69002.5
Curtis Luck69002.2
Jim Furyk69001.4
Brian Stuard69001.2
Alex Cejka69001.1
Joel Dahmen680011.1
Kramer Hickok68002.8
Andrew Landry68002.5
Kelly Kraft68001.4
Scott Brown68001.2
Ollie Schniederjans68001.2
Meen Whee Kim68001.2
Tom Hoge68000.8
Brice Garnett67006.1
Carlos Ortiz67003.8
Shawn Stefani67003.2
Brandon Harkins67001.5
Rory Sabbatini67001.5
Nick Taylor67001.4
Ryan Blaum67001.3
Seamus Power67000.6
Sebastian Munoz66003.2
Corey Conners66002.5
Harris English66002.1
John Huh66001.1
Oscar Fraustro66000.8
Jim Herman66000.5
Sang-Moon Bae66000.5
Steve Marino66000.35
Roberto Diaz66000.35
James Hahn65002.8
Vaughn Taylor65001.2
JT Poston65001.2
Hunter Mahan65001.2
Wesley Bryan65001.1
Seth Reeves65001.1
Matt Jones65001.1
Josh Teater65000.9
Max Homa65000.35
Richy Werenski64003.3
Adam Svensson64003.2
Mackenzie Hughes64002
Sung-Hoon Kang64001.3
Chris Stroud64001.1
Grayson Murray64000.7
Fabian Gomez64000.35
Sebastian Vazquez64000.35
Alex Prugh63005.1
Norman Xiong63002.4
Sean O'Hair63001.4
D.A. Points63000.8
Roger Sloan63000.5
Chase Wright63000.5
Dominic Bozzelli63000.35
Ernie Els63000.35
Jonas Blixt62000.9
Jose De Jesus Rodriguez62000.8
Martin Trainer62000.5
John Chin62000.35
Kevin Stadler62000.25
Fredrik Jacobson62000.25
Armando Favela62000.25
Kyle Jones61000.5
Kyoung-Hoon Lee61000.5
Scott Langley61000.5
Tyler Duncan61000.35
Cody Gribble61000.25
Zachary Bauchou61000.25
Shintaro Ban61000.25
Eamonn McLoughlin60000.25
Matt Hutchins60000.25
Brad Adamonis60000.25

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive