PGA

PGA DFS: Mayakoba Golf Classic Course Preview

The Tour goes from the desert of Las Vegas to the border of the jungle and beach in Playa Del Carmen. The field will make their way around El Camaleon Golf Course this week. It’s a par 71 that plays just a shade under 7,000 yards. There’s a lot to be said about this course from a viewing standpoint. As the field makes their way around the track, you’ll see everything from jungle 15 yards off the fairway to white sand beaches a few steps from the green.

With an average driving distance of right around 280 for the field, we’re looking at a course where guys leave their driver in the bag quite a bit. As far as ball-striking goes, the field has historically hit 63 percent of fairways and just under 66 percent of greens in regulation. The average cutmaker here has scored 71.5 DK points versus 22.5 DK Points for those who pack their bags early.

Past Winners

Golfer Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Patton Kizzire   2018  -19  123
Pat Perez   2017  -21  127
Graeme McDowell   2016  -18  125.5
Charley Hoffman   2015  -17  120
Harris English   2014  -21  128

OFF THE TEE

Looking at the rankings for driving stats that I usually use here can be a bit misleading. The numbers suggest that relative driving distance is actually more important than it is. There have been 24 golfers to break 100 DK points at this course since they started tracking actual driving distance off the tee. Nearly 50 percent (11 of 24) golfers in that group finished inside of the top 20 of driving distance. That might make you believe that it’s important, but no one in that group averaged over 300 yards off the tee. The same number of golfers that broke 100 DK points finished inside of the top 20 in driving accuracy.

Elcam OTT

Driving Accuracy Rank

(Since Aug. 2018)

Golfer (Salary)

1

Brian Gay ($6,900)

2

Chez Reavie ($8,500)

3

Ryan Armour ($7,100)

4

Ryan Moore ($8,600)

5

James Hahn ($6,500)

6

Alex Cejka ($6,900)

7

Shawn Stefani ($6,700)

8

Kevin Kisner ($7,700)

9

Emiliano Grillo ($9,700)

10

CT Pan ($8,100)

While there isn’t any Strokes Gained data for this event, a good proxy for some combination of distance and accuracy is SG: Off the Tee.

SG: OTT Rank

(Since Aug. 2018)

Golfer (Salary)

1

 Gary Woodland ($10,700)

2

 Cameron Champ ($9,100)

3

 Luke List ($9,000)

4

 Joaquin Niemann ($8,800)

5

 Abraham Ancer ($8,400)

 Jhonattan Vegas ($7,000)

7

 Aaron Wise ($9,900)

8

 Tony Finau ($11,000)

9

 Sungjae Im ($7,800)

10

 Billy Horschel ($10,200)

ON APPROACH

This is an interesting week to take a look at how hitting greens in regulation affect DK scoring. The floor and ceiling of greens in regulation among cut makers is very narrow. The difference between cutmakers who have a 25th percentile and 75th percentile number of greens hit is only six greens in regulation. That means that putting takes on a larger role than at other tracks. The ceiling is high for top 10 greens-in-regulation performances, but it’s relatively flat throughout 10-40 in that category.

elcam gir

 

Greens in Regulation Rank

(Since Aug. 2018)

Golfer (Salary)

1

Billy Horschel ($10,200)

2

Chez Reavie ($8,500)

3

Gary Woodland ($10,700)

4

Luke List ($9,000)

5

Aaron Wise ($9,900)

6

CT Pan ($8,100)

7

Kevin Chappell ($7,500)

8

JB Holmes ($8,900)

9

Danny Lee ($6,900)

10

Rickie Fowler ($11,500)

SCORING HOLES

As usual, the par 5s provide the best chance at birdies for the field. All three play under par and the easiest two (Holes 5 and 13) allow about 3 percent of golfers to card eagles. The 4th hole is a very short par 3 that sees an average of 1.16 DK points scored each time around, making it one of the easier par 3s on the entire PGA Tour. Par-3 scoring can be tricky though, so we’ll wrap up with the most prolific DK scorers since August.

DK Scoring Rank

(Since Aug. 2018)

Golfer (Salary)

1

Tony Finau ($11,000)

2

Gary Woodland ($10,700)

3

Sam Ryder ($8,700)

4

Rickie Fowler ($11,500)

5

Aaron Wise ($9,900)

6

Martin Laird ($7,400)

7

Bill Haas ($7,900)

8

Patrick Rodgers ($7,800)

9

CT Pan ($8,100)

10

Danny Lee ($6,900)

KEY STATS

Here are the key stats I’m targeting this week, in order of importance:

  • DraftKings Points
  • Greens in Regulation
  • SG: Off the Tee
  • SG: Putting (Paspalum)

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive