PGA

PGA DFS: Shriners Open Course Breakdown

For the first time in a while, the main slate for PGA on DraftKings is a cut event. The Tour converges between China and Mississippi in the middle of the desert at TPC Summerlin in Nevada.

The course itself is a par 71 that plays between 7,200 and 7,300 yards. Golfers are faced with bentgrass greens that are quite large. We see some courses that average greens around 5,500-6,000 square feet, this week we’re looking at greens over 7,500 square feet on average. The field will have to deal with 100-plus bunkers and four water hazards as they make their way around TPC Summerlin. Greens will run a bit slower than the last few events if history is any indication.

Past Winners

Golfer

Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Patrick Cantlay 2018 -9

105.5

Rod Pampling 2017 -20

133

Smylie Kaufman 2016 -16

122.5

Ben Martin

2015 -20

136.5

Webb Simpson 2014 -24

132

Off the Tee

Going back to 2010, the course has skewed more towards accuracy than distance off the tee. Driving accuracy has been nearly three times as correlated as distance to DraftKings scoring. The average golfer that tees it up at TPC Summerlin averages about 56 percent of fairways. Golfers that have finished in the top five of DK scoring average over 60 percent, a difference of about three fairways hit across the whole week.

Driving

Of the 44 golfers that finished in the top five of DK Scoring for that week, 16 (36 percent) finished in the top 20 of driving distance that week. On the other hand, 21 (47 percent) hit the same threshold in driving accuracy for that week. A strong off the tee game, in general, is important. There have been 53 golfers who have broken 100 DK points at TPC Summerlin since 2010. Only 11 percent of those golfers lost strokes off the tee.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Leaders (Last 24 Rounds)
1 Corey Conners ($6600)
2 Joaquin Niemann ($8400)
3 Gary Woodland ($9700)
4 Abraham Ancer ($8200)
5 Cameron Champ ($9200)
6 Patrick Cantlay ($9900)
7 James Hahn ($6600)
8 Tony Finau ($11300)
9 Jhonattan Vegas ($7100)
10 Trey Mullinax ($6700)

On Approach

This shouldn’t necessarily be breaking news, but hitting greens is important for DK scoring. Hitting a green means a birdie putt, and a birdie is worth six times as much as a par. Golfers that finish inside of the top 20 of DK points average 55 of 72 greens hit in regulation. There have been 206 golfers that have finished in that group. Over 85 percent of them have finished their week gaining strokes on approach.

tpc summerlin gir

When you narrow from that group down to just 100-plus point scorers, approach game becomes even more important. That group averages an impressive 79.3 percent greens in regulation hit. Only one of those golfers, since 2010, has finished outside of the top 10 in the actual tournament. That’s important on a normal week, but in these birdiefests, you can have a guy who finishes somewhat poorly in the tournament still find DK relevance. When we think about ball-striking, SG: Approach is a good approximation of not just hitting greens, but also proximity. If birdie putts are good, short birdie putts are better. 

Strokes Gained: Approach Leaders (Last 24 Rounds)
1 Joel Dahmen ($7,100)
2 Mac Hughes ($6,800)
3 Sam Ryder ($7,600)
4 Robert Streb ($6,500)
5 Gary Woodland ($9,700)
6 Ryan Moore ($8,700)
7 Vaughn Taylor ($6,500)
8 Anders Albertson ($7,000)
9 Rickie Fowler ($11,400)
10 Adam Svensson ($6,500)

Scoring Holes

TPC Summerlin features four holes that have a birdie or better percentage higher than 25 percent. The three par-5 holes are included in those, along with the par-4 15th hole that plays under 350 yards. Only the shorter par 5s (9th and 16th holes) allow more than two percent of golfers to card eagles. Targeting par-5 scorers and getting exposure to some of those eagle makers is important. A good proxy for that, is DK scoring in general.

DraftKings Scoring Leaders (Since the Start of 2018)
1 Tony Finau ($11,300)
2 Bryson DeChambeau ($10,800)
3 Rickie Fowler ($11,400)
4 Gary Woodland ($9,700)
5 Jordan Spieth ($11,000)
6 Aaron Wise ($9,400)
7 Cameron Champ ($9,200)
8 Joaquin Niemann ($8,400)
9 Webb Simpson ($10,300)
10 Sam Ryder ($7,600)

Key Stats

Here are the stats that I’m targeting, in order of importance for this week’s slate:

  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Off the Tee
  • DraftKings Points
  • Par-5 Birdie or Better

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive