PGA

PGA DFS: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

The Tour converges between China and Mississippi in the middle of the desert at TPC Summerlin in Nevada this weekend. For a more in-depth look at the course and which stats we’re targeting this week check out yesterday’s article.

We have a larger field this week and there’s a cut before the weekend, so we’re going to pay attention to ownership and cut equity so we can put ourselves in position for a winning week again.

Checking the Chalk

At the time of this writing, it looks like Tony Finau ($11,300) and Webb Simpson ($10,300) would be my guess for highest owned golfers around $10,000. Finau is coming back over from China where he just missed out on a victory at the WGC HSBC Champions last week. It’s been a bit longer since we’ve seen Simpson, but he finished the season strong. In his last five events, he had three finishes inside of the top six. In that timeframe, he carded 15 of 20 rounds in the 60s. Webb has also broken 100 DK points on three separate occasions at this course. There will be a larger piece about this in the near future here, but the point expectation difference between chalky and expensive ($10,000-plus) golfers and low owned, expensive golfers is paper thin. There’s almost always a case to be made for fading the expensive chalk.

As we go through the mid-tier of salary, it’s a bit of a different story. On the one hand, you have the $9,000 range which should have relatively flat ownership. Patrick Cantlay ($9,900), Gary Woodland ($9,700), Aaron Wise ($9,400), and Cameron Champ ($9,200) are all right next to each other. On the other hand, the $8,000 range has a front-runner for high ownership in Scott Piercy ($8,100). He’s scored at least 75 DK points in 5 of 8 starts at TPC Summerlin, which may have something to do with it.

Once we get below $8,000 there are a couple more options who could see high ownership. Sam Burns ($7,600) is a popular name circulating the Twittersphere and Toutsphere this week. He had a 20th place finish here last year. Alex Cejka ($6,900) and J.J. Spaun ($6,900) are also getting some buzz and could potentially get chalky as the week progresses. Cejka has been runner-up here two of the past three years and has scored at least 80 DK points in 5 of 7 starts. Spaun has a 10th place finish here and is coming off of a 10th place finish at the CJ Cup a couple of weeks ago.

Make sure you check out the ownership projections below as they’ll be updated all the way up to lock on Thursday morning as the ownership landscape takes shape.

GPP Pivots

If you’re pivoting away from the chalk options up top, Rickie Fowler ($11,400) makes sense for a few reasons. He fought through an oblique injury down the stretch through the playoffs to finish in the top ten in both the BMW Championship and Tour Championship. During those two starts he hit at least two-thirds of greens in regulation and over 60 percent of fairways. Fowler’s last five events have resulted in 12 rounds in the 60s. In his career, he’s been remarkably consistent across different types of courses, but he does have a slightly higher ceiling on par 71s. We’ve also seen that the most expensive golfer when alongside multiple elite options, can be had at an ownership discount.

 

Rickie

Cameron Champ is getting talked up quite a bit this week after his win. The first run of projections I ran has Champ at 14.4%, but I’m not entirely sure it gets that high. He’ll clear double digits pretty easily, I’d think. But, a lot of the buzz that typically points to higher ownership for a golfer might not turn into that ownership on a lesser-known entity like Champ. The lower owned options in that range are going to be Chesson Hadley ($9,300) and Matt Kuchar ($9,100) even though they might not be too enticing. Hadley has underperformed salary expectations in 4 of 5 starts and wasn’t able to break 70 during the CJ Cup a few weeks ago, while Kuchar hasn’t finished in the top 25 of a tournament since the first week in August.

Even with guys like Scott Piercy ($8,100), Sam Ryder ($7,600), and Sam Burns ($7,600) soaking up a chunk of ownership in the value tier, it looks ownership should be pretty flat throughout the other options. Kevin Tway ($7,300) and Rory Sabbatini ($7,400) are in play for their par-5 scoring alone. Sabbatini actually performs best on par 71s over the past two seasons.

 

sab

But another guy worth taking note of is Dylan Meyer ($7,300) at his price. It was a weaker field, but a 93 point performance is worth consideration. He went 8-under on the par 5s last week at CC of Jackson.  Including his recent Web.com events, he’s hit at least two-thirds of greens in regulation in six straight events.

If you aren’t willing to eat the Cejka and Spaun chalk down low, Carlos Ortiz ($6,800) is an interesting name to watch. Fresh off his graduation from the Web.com Tour and just put up a top-three finish last week. He scored 109 DK point on the back of three rounds in the 60s while hitting 72 percent of greens in regulation.

Ownership Projections

NameDK$Projection
Gary Woodland970023.1
Webb Simpson1030021.2
Scott Piercy810021.1
Tony Finau1130020.1
Sam Burns760018.2
Aaron Wise940016.9
Beau Hossler860016.4
Jordan Spieth1100015.4
Patrick Cantlay990014.9
Ryan Moore870014.8
Rickie Fowler1140013.2
Cameron Champ920013.1
Sung-Jae Im800012.8
Bryson DeChambeau1080012.5
J.J. Spaun690012.1
Kevin Tway730011.3
Lucas Glover830010.9
Austin Cook780010.8
Joaquin Niemann840010.2
Kevin Na88009.8
Abraham Ancer82009.1
Sam Ryder76009.1
Chesson Hadley93009.1
Martin Laird77009
Bronson Burgoon78008.8
Ryan Palmer79008.2
Russell Henley73008.2
Alex Cejka69008.2
Joel Dahmen71007.9
Cameron Davis73007.9
Nick Watney69007.2
Matt Kuchar91006.9
Harold Varner70006.8
Adam Schenk73006.6
Jason Kokrak75006.3
Chris Kirk74006.3
Andrew Putnam89006.1
Denny McCarthy79005.5
Anders Albertson70005.4
Roberto Castro67005.2
Patrick Rodgers85005.1
Si Woo Kim75004.9
Corey Conners66004.9
Jim Furyk77004.6
Brendan Steele71004.3
Carlos Ortiz68004.2
Kevin Streelman75004.1
Rory Sabbatini74004.1
Peter Uihlein72004.1
Dylan Meyer73003.4
Satoshi Kodaira68003.3
D.J. Trahan65003.3
Meen Whee Kim71002.9
Shawn Stefani70002.9
Danny Lee70002.9
Jhonattan Vegas71002.8
Jason Dufner70002.8
Brian Gay67002.8
Adam Svensson65002.7
Seamus Power68002.6
Tyler Duncan62002.6
Mackenzie Hughes68002.3
Kramer Hickok66002.3
Anirban Lahiri69002.2
Brandon Hagy68002.2
Bud Cauley68002.2
Graeme McDowell74002.2
Ollie Schniederjans70002.2
Brice Garnett62002.2
Hudson Swafford70001.8
Wyndham Clark67001.8
Brandon Harkins65001.8
Chase Wright69001.7
Troy Merritt67001.7
Alex Prugh66001.7
Sebastian Munoz62001.7
Wesley Bryan62001.7
Ryan Blaum72001.6
Nick Taylor71001.6
Harris English71001.6
Trey Mullinax67001.6
Stephan Jaeger64001.6
Scott Stallings64001.6
Tom Hoge70001.5
James Hahn66001.5
Richy Werenski65001.5
Kenny Perry64001.5
Kelly Kraft68001.4
Sung-Hoon Kang67001.4
Vaughn Taylor65001.4
Grayson Murray69001.4
Matt Jones71001.3
Seth Reeves69001.3
Hunter Mahan69001.3
Jonas Blixt64001.3
John Huh62001.3
Martin Trainer61001.3
JT Poston66001.2
Peter Malnati72001
Sang-Moon Bae72001
Brian Stuard68001
Chris Stroud66001
Robert Streb65001
Nick Hardy63001
Kevin Stadler62001
Dominic Bozzelli61001
John Chin61001
Michael Kim67000.8
John Senden61000.8
Scott Brown63000.4
Scott Langley62000.4
Jose De Jesus Rodriguez61000.4
Wes Roach66000.4
Kyoung-Hoon Lee63000.4
Kyle Jones61000.4
Roberto Diaz65000.4
Kevin Dougherty63000.4
Roger Sloan63000.4
Rod Pampling64000.2
Fredrik Jacobson64000.2
Max Homa64000.2
Shintaro Ban63000.2
Steve Marino63000.2
Ernie Els63000.2
Kristoffer Ventura62000.2
Davis Love III62000.2
Cody Gribble61000.2
Preston Otte61000.2

By Matt Jones | @twitter.com/mattjonestfr | Archive