NASCAR DFS Picks, Projections for Talladega

NASCAR heads to Talladega for the second race of the second round of the playoffs. As always, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks and projections for this weekend’s race. Be sure to check out the 10 must-know facts for this weekend’s race. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup OptimizerSim Scores, and Splits apps will be updated shortly after this publishes. If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the restrictor plate section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers. Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Talladega!


This weekend I have a bunch of models. In addition to the main model, which projects finishing position based off removing DNFs, I also have a model that projects average finishing position with DNFs, a game theory optimal (GTO) ownership percentage model, and a DNF probability model. The GTO projections are based off of starting position and past race results at non-Daytona 500 plate races. Obviously, these projections are agnostic to the individual driver, so you’ll want to adjust from the GTO projections to account for driver quality. The DNF projections also use the same set of races to project DNF probability for drivers, and is not solely starting-position based. Instead, it uses multiple factors like my points projection models do. Before we dive into the NASCAR DFS picks, lets have a look at the different models!

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By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive