Advice

Tomorrow’s Moves Today: Leveraging SOS and Team Level Trends To Stay Ahead of the Competition

Tomorrow’s Moves Today uses the strength of schedule tabs included in the Weekly Stat Explorer to identify team positional units with favorable/unfavorable upcoming schedules and players on the related teams that should be targeted or avoided. The Weekly Stat Explorer (WSE) includes strength of schedule tabs for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, and DST. These tabs visualize each team’s schedule on a positional unit basis and can be filtered to provide rankings for a range of weeks. Rather than use points allowed to determine the difficulty of a team’s opponents, the tool works through the following process:
  • The average points per game scored by each fantasy relevant player are compared to their point totals when facing particular DSTs, resulting in a differential for each matchup.
  • Players are grouped by position and the differentials are totaled and then divided by the number of contributing matchups.
  • The more points that opposing offensive players scored above their averages when facing a DST, the less difficult the DST is considered by the WSE.
  • Alternatively, the less points that opposing offensive players scored above their averages when facing a DST, the more difficult the DST is considered by the WSE.
  • This process is performed at each position, and the differentials are ranked and used to calculate strength of schedule scores.
  • In the case of DSTs, the included matchups review the scores of DSTs when facing particular offenses.
As the season progresses the calculated SOSs will be based on more data and carry more meaning. With that in mind, let’s take a look at Week’s 4 – 6 on a positional basis. Next week, and moving forward, we’ll look at both teams and players with noteworthy outlooks based on SOS in greater detail.

Quarterback

QBWK46

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By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive