Advice

Game Level Similarity Projections: Wide Receivers Week 4

Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups. GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. Please note that the model is run three times: 8 weeks back, 6 weeks back, and 3 weeks back and that the results are averaged. As a result, rookies that are trending well will be somewhat overstated and second-year players who did not score well last year will be underprojected. Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 3 WR GLSP projections are included below.
PlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGPOS
Tyreek HillKCDEN1822.728.723WR
Keenan AllenLACSF15192621WR
Calvin RidleyATLCIN13202421WR
Davante AdamsGBBUF14.31923.720.3WR
Odell Beckham JrNYGNO15212420WR
Jarvis LandryCLEOAK12.317.725.320WR
Antonio BrownPITBAL14.518.52419.5WR
Michael ThomasNONYG121722.719WR
Juju Smith-SchusterPITBAL1317.72218.3WR
T.Y. HiltonINDHOU13182518WR
Mike EvansTBCHI11.71723.717.7WR
Sterling ShepardNYGNO11.316.722.317WR
Julio JonesATLCIN1116.720.717WR
Mike WilliamsLACSF9152617WR
DeAndre HopkinsHOUIND12.315.721.316.3WR
AJ GreenCINATL11.71519.315.7WR
Keelan ColeJAXNYJ1115.318.715.7WR
Emmanuel SandersDENKC9.715.320.715.3WR
Golden TateDETDAL9.71519.715WR
Larry FitzgeraldARISEA8.316.719.315WR
Demaryius ThomasDENKC9.314.318.714.7WR
Randall CobbGBBUF9.313.318.314.3WR
Kenny GolladayDETDAL91319.714.3WR
Marquise GoodwinSFLAC8.71419.714.3WR
Nelson AgholorPHITEN9.313.717.314WR
Stefon DiggsMINLAR913.318.314WR
Tyler BoydCINATL91417.314WR
Quincy EnunwaNYJJAX9121714WR
Chris GodwinTBCHI7.711.719.714WR
John BrownBALPIT6.711.71813WR
Robert WoodsLARMIN9121612.7WR
Sammy WatkinsKCDEN7.711.31712.7WR
Kenny StillsMIANE712.318.312.7WR
Albert WilsonMIANE6.311.717.712.7WR
Will FullerHOUIND10121612.5WR
Adam ThielenMINLAR9.312.316.312.3WR
Michael CrabtreeBALPIT7131712.3WR
Marvin JonesDETDAL713.316.712.3WR
Brandin CooksLARMIN6.31217.312.3WR
Allen RobinsonCHITB6111712WR
Ryan GrantINDHOU6.710.71511.7WR
Ted GinnNONYG69.316.711.7WR
DeSean JacksonTBCHI69.71511.7WR
Cooper KuppLARMIN6.31115.311.3WR
Corey DavisTENPHI8101411WR
Amari CooperOAKCLE6.31015.311WR
Mohamed SanuATLCIN6.791310.3WR
Tyrell WilliamsLACSF5.310.314.310.3WR
Dede WestbrookJAXNYJ4.79.314.710WR
Jakeem GrantMIANE5.3814.79.7WR
Tyler LockettSEAARI5.38.3139.3WR
Martavis BryantOAKCLE4.79.7139.3WR
Jordy NelsonOAKCLE5.37.712.39WR
Taywan TaylorTENPHI46149WR
Phillip DorsettNEMIA46129WR
Geronimo AllisonGBBUF58118.7WR
Seth RobertsOAKCLE47.3138.7WR
Danny AmendolaMIANE47.712.38.7WR
Antonio CallawayCLEOAK49128WR
Brandon MarshallSEAARI47128WR
Robby AndersonNYJJAX3.77.711.38WR
Kelvin BenjaminBUFGB3.37128WR
Trent TaylorSFLAC3.36.711.38WR
Pierre GarconSFLAC37128WR
Rashard HigginsCLEOAK2.7711.78WR
Dante PettisSFLAC27108WR
Deonte ThompsonDALDET4.37.310.77.3WR
Chester RogersINDHOU3.3610.77.3WR
Willie SneadBALPIT3.369.77.3WR
Taylor GabrielCHITB36117.3WR
Courtland SuttonDENKC4697WR
Kendrick BourneSFLAC3.768.77WR
Andre HolmesBUFGB38117WR
Anthony MillerCHITB25107WR
Donte MoncriefJAXNYJ34.78.76.7WR
Cameron MeredithNONYG2.54.586.5WR
Christian KirkARISEA4686WR
Jaron BrownSEAARI368.36WR
Cole BeasleyDALDET2.758.76WR
Allen HurnsDALDET2.74.78.36WR
Tavon AustinDALDET2.346.75.3WR
Zay JonesBUFGB23.38.35.3WR
John RossCINATL12.78.75.3WR
Chris HoganNEMIA2.74.77.35WR
Laquon TreadwellMINLAR2465WR
Terrelle PryorNYJJAX1.32.785WR
James WashingtonPITBAL1375WR
Bruce EllingtonHOUIND1.33.76.74.7WR
Cordarrelle PattersonNEMIA1.33.364.7WR
Chris ConleyKCDEN136.34.3WR
Cody LatimerNYGNO0284WR
Kamar AikenPHITEN11.33.73WR
Travis KelceKCDEN12.3162016.7TE
Zach ErtzPHITEN912.717.713.7TE
Rob GronkowskiNEMIA7.311.316.312.7TE
Evan EngramNYGNO812.31712.3TE
Eric EbronINDHOU8.311.715.711.7TE
George KittleSFLAC711.715.711.3TE
OJ HowardTBCHI610.31711.3TE
Jack DoyleINDHOU7.711.715.311.3TE
Tyler EifertCINATL6101411TE
Benjamin WatsonNONYG5.39.314.310.3TE
Jared CookOAKCLE69.31310TE
Mark AndrewsBALPIT5101410TE
Jesse JamesPITBAL5812.39.3TE
Charles ClayBUFGB5.38.712.39.3TE
Will DisslySEAARI57119TE
Kyle RudolphMINLAR4.39128.7TE
Trey BurtonCHITB4.3811.38.7TE
Rhett EllisonNYGNO3713.38.7TE
Jimmy GrahamGBBUF4.37128TE
Jake ButtDENKC57128TE
Austin HooperATLCIN4710.77.7TE
Austin Seferian-JenkinsJAXNYJ35.310.37.3TE
Garrett CelekSFLAC36.78.77.3TE
David NjokuCLEOAK3.35.7107TE
Nick BoyleBALPIT35.396.3TE
Virgil GreenLACSF3486TE
CJ UzomahCINATL2.34.79.35.7TE
AJ DerbyMIANE2.74.78.35.7TE
Ricky Seals-JonesARISEA24.775.3TE
Joshua PerkinsPHITEN2565TE
Maxx WilliamsBALPIT1.32.754.3TE
Dallas GoedertPHITEN1.324.74TE
Nick VannettSEAARI13.554TE
Antonio GatesLACSF2464TE
Luke StockerTENPHI1354TE
Jordan AkinsHOUIND1364TE
Tyler HigbeeLARMIN0.3263.7TE
Jason CroomBUFGB12.553.5TE
Ryan GriffinHOUIND1253.5TE
Geoff SwaimDALDET123.53TE
Jordan ThomasHOUIND0.5153TE
Todd GurleyLARMIN17.32229.725.3RB
James ConnerPITBAL16182422RB
Kareem HuntKCDEN14.3192420.3RB
Saquon BarkleyNYGNO16192420RB
Dion LewisTENPHI1317.72519.7RB
Melvin GordonLACSF14.317.32219RB
Chris CarsonSEAARI16182217.5RB
Alvin KamaraNONYG111622.317RB
Alex CollinsBALPIT11162216.7RB
Ezekiel ElliottDALDET10.314.718.315RB
David JohnsonARISEA7112215RB
Leonard FournetteJAXNYJ10.313.319.315RB
LeSean McCoyBUFGB9.714.318.715RB
Carlos HydeCLEOAK11161914.7RB
Marshawn LynchOAKCLE9.3151914.7RB
Kenyan DrakeMIANE9.71317.314.3RB
Giovani BernardCINATL1113.317.314.3RB
Devonta FreemanATLCIN8.712.318.714RB
Jordan HowardCHITB8.31217.313RB
Latavius MurrayMINLAR6.312.31512.7RB
Peyton BarberTBCHI6.710.717.312RB
Matt BreidaSFLAC6.310.714.711.3RB
Jamaal WilliamsGBBUF7.310.315.711.3RB
Bilal PowellNYJJAX6.79.31411RB
Alfred MorrisSFLAC6.510.51611RB
Alfred BlueHOUIND81014.311RB
Joe MixonCINATL6.79.71410.7RB
Tevin ColemanATLCIN5.38.71610.3RB
Jay AjayiPHITEN5.391210RB
Phillip LindsayDENKC681410RB
Kerryon JohnsonDETDAL691310RB
Royce FreemanDENKC391410RB
Ty MontgomeryGBBUF4111310RB
Derrick HenryTENPHI57.312.39.3RB
Frank GoreMIANE4.38129.3RB
Dalvin CookMINLAR59139RB
Nyheim HinesINDHOU28139RB
Rex BurkheadNEMIA3.7611.38.7RB
Duke JohnsonCLEOAK4710.78.7RB
TJ YeldonJAXNYJ4.77.3128.3RB
Theo RiddickDETDAL46.310.78.3RB
Lamar MillerHOUIND4.36.7118RB
Chase EdmondsARISEA35128RB
Javorius AllenBALPIT2.76.7117.7RB
Isaiah CrowellNYJJAX3.36.710.77.3RB
Austin EkelerLACSF2.74.77.77.3RB
Marlon MackINDHOU2.77107.3RB
Tarik CohenCHITB36.711.77RB
Wendell SmallwoodPHITEN2.35117RB
Corey ClementPHITEN2.7576.3RB
James WhiteNEMIA1.74.38.76RB
Chris IvoryBUFGB367.56RB
Jordan WilkinsINDHOU4586RB
Darren SprolesPHITEN24126RB
Sony MichelNEMIA2486RB
Corey GrantJAXNYJ2386RB
Anthony ShermanKCDEN1313.36RB
Jeremy HillNEMIA1486RB
Darren SprolesPHIIND24126RB
Aaron JonesGBBUF13.78.75.3RB
Ito SmithATLCIN2375RB
Rashaad PennySEAARI1485RB
Jalen RichardOAKCLE1.336.34.7RB
LeGarrette BlountDETDAL1.747.34.7RB
LeGarrette BlountDETNE1.747.34.7RB
Malcolm BrownLARMIN1354RB
Jacquizz RodgersTBCHI0.71.73.73.3RB
Doug MartinOAKCLE1343RB
Spencer WareKCDEN1253RB
Kyle JuszczykSFLAC00.710.7RB
Ryan FitzpatrickTBCHI18.724.831.424.2QB
Philip RiversLACSF17.423.429.623.4QB
Ryan TannehillMIANE14.618.626.921.5QB
Drew BreesNONYG15.920.229.721.4QB
Matthew StaffordDETDAL15.721.32721.4QB
Deshaun WatsonHOUIND16.619.626.821QB
Jared GoffLARMIN1419.127.319.9QB
Blake BortlesJAXNYJ14.919.826.419.8QB
Ben RoethlisbergerPITBAL9.520.428.219.4QB
Russell WilsonSEAARI15.61922.719.4QB
Andy DaltonCINATL14.318.525.419QB
Aaron RodgersGBBUF11.42027.518.5QB
Patrick MahomesKCDEN11.318.32917.8QB
Carson WentzPHITEN11.816.321.917.1QB
Kirk CousinsMINLAR8.717.623.416.9QB
Matt RyanATLCIN1317.821.516.8QB
Derek CarrOAKCLE11.314.820.916.3QB
Case KeenumDENKC12.316.120.816.2QB
Andrew LuckINDHOU12.91418.515.8QB
Eli ManningNYGNO1216.519.515.6QB
Jimmy GaroppoloSFLAC9.413.721.415.4QB
Dak PrescottDALDET9.815.820.215QB
Tom BradyNEMIA9.313.51914.3QB
Tyrod TaylorCLEOAK9.915.819.614.2QB
Joe FlaccoBALPIT4.91221.313.4QB
Josh AllenBUFGB8.112.815.913.1QB
Nick FolesPHITEN8.612.516.412.4QB
Marcus MariotaTENPHI8.811.713.711.7QB
Sam DarnoldNYJJAX2.59.616.49.8QB
Sam BradfordARISEA4.38.510.89.3QB
Mitch TrubiskyCHITB5.48.910.59.1QB
Blaine GabbertTENPHI24.215.28.1QB
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.

Surprisingly Strong Projections

Tyreek Hill has the highest floor, median, and ceiling projection this week despite a disappointing 7.6 PPR score in Week 3.

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