Advice

Game Level Similarity Projections : Wide Receivers Week 3

Welcome to the 2018 Game Level Similarity Projections (GLSP) for wide receivers, a weekly column designed to help you identify high-upside standouts and set your season-long lineups. GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. All of Dave’s Week 3 WR GLSP projections are included below.
RnkPlayerTeamOppLowMedHighAVGPOS 
1Antonio BrownPITTB1722.72722.3WR
2Juju Smith-SchusterPITTB1721.726.722WR
3T.Y. HiltonINDPHI16182821WR
4Julio JonesATLNO14.32025.721WR
5Tyreek HillKCSF15.320.325.320WR
6Keenan AllenLACLAR13202620WR
7Keelan ColeJAXTEN13.317.72419.3WR
8Quincy EnunwaNYJCLE12172619WR
9Stefon DiggsMINBUF14.318.723.318.7WR
10DeAndre HopkinsHOUNYG12.717.724.318.7WR
11Michael ThomasNOATL13172318.3WR
12Davante AdamsGBWAS13.317.322.717.7WR
13Golden TateDETNE13.317.322.317.7WR
14Jarvis LandryCLENYJ1117.32217WR
15Mike EvansTBPIT1116.720.717WR
16Larry FitzgeraldARICHI11.71621.316.7WR
17Cooper KuppLARLAC10.71721.316.7WR
18Odell Beckham JrNYGHOU11152016WR
19Marvin JonesDETNE11.3162115.7WR
20Adam ThielenMINBUF11.3162015.7WR
21Chris GodwinTBPIT9.314.720.715.7WR
22Brandin CooksLARLAC8.315.720.715.3WR
23John BrownBALDEN10.314.720.315WR
24Nelson AgholorPHIIND10.313.71815WR
25Kenny GolladayDETNE9.71419.314.7WR
26Robert WoodsLARLAC10.3131613.3WR
27Michael CrabtreeBALDEN812.31613.3WR
28DeSean JacksonTBPIT91216.713WR
29Dede WestbrookJAXTEN8.31317.313WR
30Demaryius ThomasDENBAL81217.713WR
31AJ GreenCINCAR81215.713WR
32Randall CobbGBWAS8.71217.712.7WR
33Sammy WatkinsKCSF7.312.315.712.7WR
34Jamison CrowderWASGB711.71512.7WR
35Devin FunchessCARCIN6.71216.712.7WR
36Sterling ShepardNYGHOU811.315.312.3WR
37Albert WilsonMIAOAK6.712.316.712.3WR
38Brandon MarshallSEADAL9121612WR
39Emmanuel SandersDENBAL6.710.71511.3WR
40Tyler BoydCINCAR5.710.315.311.3WR
41Antonio CallawayCLENYJ491611WR
42Mohamed SanuATLNO7.31013.310.7WR
43Paul RichardsonWASGB5.38.313.310.7WR
44Will FullerHOUNYG7.79.312.710.3WR
45Josh GordonCLENYJ5.78.714.310.3WR
46Amari CooperOAKMIA57.714.710.3WR
47Mike WilliamsLACLAR791410WR
48Robby AndersonNYJCLE5.79.31410WR
49Pierre GarconSFKC5101410WR
50Martavis BryantOAKMIA5913.710WR
51Kenny StillsMIAOAK5.7911.79.7WR
52Ted GinnNOATL5.78.311.79.7WR
53Adam HumphriesTBPIT4.77.3149.3WR
54Tyler LockettSEADAL4.78.7129.3WR
55Tyrell WilliamsLACLAR57139WR
56Ryan GrantINDPHI4.78.312.79WR
57Cole BeasleyDALSEA4.3812.79WR
58Kelvin BenjaminBUFMIN57.710.78.7WR
59Geronimo AllisonGBWAS4.37.311.38.7WR
60Seth RobertsOAKMIA4811.78.7WR
61Torrey SmithCARCIN3.7712.78.7WR
62Willie SneadBALDEN57108.3WR
63Cody LatimerNYGHOU4.3711.38WR
64Jakeem GrantMIAOAK48.310.78WR
65Josh DoctsonWASGB46.39.78WR
66Taywan TaylorTENJAX36128WR
67Deonte ThompsonDALSEA3.75.310.37.7WR
68Kendrick BourneSFKC3.7610.77.3WR
69Jarius WrightCARCIN3.36.310.77.3WR
70Danny AmendolaMIAOAK3.36.7107.3WR
71Chester RogersINDPHI468.37WR
72Chris HoganNEDET3.3610.77WR
73James WashingtonPITTB34107WR
74D.J. MooreCARCIN24107WR
75Allen RobinsonCHIARI1.34.3117WR
76Rashard HigginsCLENYJ2.759.76.3WR
77Donte MoncriefJAXTEN24.78.76.3WR
78Christian KirkARICHI3696WR
79Tavon AustinDALSEA2.74.79.36WR
80Taylor GabrielCHIARI2.7586WR
81Jordy NelsonOAKMIA2.34.7106WR
82Corey DavisTENJAX2.74.385.7WR
83Laquon TreadwellMINBUF2.35.38.75.7WR
84Demarcus RobinsonKCSF2.73.785.3WR
85Bruce EllingtonHOUNYG24.785.3WR
86Andre HolmesBUFMIN2475WR
87Calvin RidleyATLNO1.33.375WR
88Zay JonesBUFMIN1.7464.7WR
89De'Anthony ThomasKCSF1.32.764.7WR
90Cordarrelle PattersonNEDET1.33.36.34.3WR
91Chris ConleyKCSF12.76.34.3WR
92Kamar AikenPHIIND1.72.344WR
93Courtland SuttonDENBAL1374WR
94Terrelle PryorNYJCLE0284WR
95Marvin HallATLNO0.31.76.73.7WR
96Phillip DorsettNEDET1243WR
97Dante PettisSFKC0143WR
98Travis BenjaminLACLAR0233WR
99John RossCINCAR0.71.73.72.7WR
100Tajae SharpeTENJAX0.713.72.3WR
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Explorer. The apps version of the GLSP is available here for your own research.

Surprisingly Strong Projections

Juju Smith-Schuster is now a talking point of this column for the third straight week.

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