Earlier in the week, I introduced the concept of Historical Distribution Scores (HDS). The score is a simple and efficient way to describe a player’s range of outcomes based on his historical projections. In this post, we’ll first visual historical distributions for the top-50 WRs, based on MFL10 ADP, and then review calculated HDS scores.

Distributions Visualized

As a reminder, the historical projections used to create the visualizations plot the number of comparable players that produced the included points per game (PPG) totals in year n+1. As a result, the y-axis counts the number of comparable players that produced the PPG that span the x-axis.¹ I used 2016 data when creating the projections for Julian Edelman, Allen Robinson and other players who missed substantial time in 2017.

1 – Antonio Brown

1. 20 comparable players were included for each projection.  (back)