Draft Strategy

The Third-Year WR Breakout Candidates You Must Own And 3 Sleepers to Watch

The buzz over third-year wide receivers has largely died down in recent seasons as owners realize this isn’t a special group. But as the Myth of the Third-Year Breakout WR is dispelled, it opens up other opportunities for savvy owners. Third-year players do break out – just not in huge numbers – and they often represent excellent post-hype values. Davante Adams was an excellent example of this two years ago. Devin Funchess and Nelson Agholor were lesser examples in 2017.   If you’ve been reading the fantastic Wrong Read column from Blair Andrews this offseason, you know the WR breakout and age curves are not always what you’d expect. We can use this knowledge along with a broader look at WR breakout trends to find a few exploitable loopholes in receiver ADP. Blair and I have applied slightly different methodologies,1 but we’ve both found similar results. While third-year breakout candidates are not nearly as valuable as rookie breakouts for dynasty and not nearly as numerous as second-year breakouts for redraft, targeting these players still results in plenty of value.
  1. Blair uses a WR2 season, while I use 200 points, a threshold that roughly corresponds to a WR2 performance across this time period. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages but return similar actionable results. Funchess and Agholor finished as WR20 and WR21 last year respectively, but they didn’t hit 200 points.  (back)

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive