RB Historical Distribution Scores: Perine Surprises, Cohen Disappoints, and Johnson Dominates
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Last week, I introduced the concept of Historical Distribution Scores (HDS). The score is a simple and efficient way to describe a player’s range of outcomes based on his historical projections. In this post, we’ll first visual historical distributions for the top-50 RBs, based on MFL10 ADP, and then review calculated HDS scores.
DISTRIBUTIONS VISUALIZEDAs a reminder, the historical projections used to create the visualizations plot the number of comparable players that produced the included points per game (PPG) totals in year n+1. As a result, the y-axis counts the number of comparable players that produced the PPG that span the x-axis.1 I used 2016 data when creating the projections for David Johnson, Spencer Ware, and other players who missed substantial time in 2017.
1 – Todd Gurley
- 20 comparable players were included for each projection. (back)