Draft Strategy

Mind the Gap: Team RB ADP and Draft Strategy

Back in June, I wrote about what the difference in same-team running back ADP implies about fantasy performance. A player’s ADP represents the market’s best assessment of his individual value. The difference in ADP between two RBs on the same team also tells us something about each player’s relative value. RB ADP differential is really just a way to screen players, and separate them into different buckets. Since we know how those buckets have performed historically, we can make inferences about who might over or underperform their ADP. As a reminder, same-team RBs are either separated by a big or small gap in ADP and are either the first or second team RB selected. This gives us four buckets.
TEAM RB 1st Drafted 2nd Drafted
Big ADP Gap B1 B2
Small ADP Gap S1 S2
Here’s how each of the four buckets has performed; a full discussion of what these numbers mean can be found here. In general, cheap B1 and S2 backs make good targets.
RB TypePct NAve ADPPct Top 6Ave Applied PtsAve Val AddWin Rt > Teammate?Win Rt > AveRB?Ave Win Rt
B113.90%32.424%156101.651%50%9.1%
B213.30%186.912%45.526.349%43%8.5%
S114.80%63.425%105.564.141%37%7.6%
S214.80%114.825%98.859.259%59%9.0%

Current ADP-Based RB Typology

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @Spidr2ybanana | Archive