A Complete Set of 2018 Projections
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Throughout the last month, we worked our way through each division to create a set of projections for 2018 season. In this post, we’ll put all of these projections together. As I harped upon in the introductory article and mention on nearly every episode of RotoViz Radio, projections are just a single input into a broader decision making process. Resist getting married to these or any projections. They are just best guesses, that in some cases lack context, don’t address a player’s range of outcomes or speak to his downside/upside. I’d highly recommend checking out the historical projections included in the stat explorer. While building these projections, I did my best to think critically, question my biases, be objective, and work out what I view to be the most likely outcomes for each player. I’m fully expecting a number of my projections to be horribly wrong. That’s fine and it’s part of the process. I’m less concerned with pinpoint accuracy and more focused on understanding what we can reasonably expect from a player and the variables that can greatly impact his 2018 production. This was a an extremely useful exercise in helping me develop expectations of each player’s range of outcomes for the coming season. If you don’t want to go through the process of projecting each team, I’d still recommend that you play around with the projection machine. You’ll learn a lot, and if you strongly disagree with my projections, you can gain an understanding of the things that would need to happen in order for your expectations to be realized. Feel free to share your projections on the forums and let me know where I am way off. As we build toward the season, I’ll post updated projections.1 Use the export options to download the projections.