Advice

Wisdom of the Crowds – #SFB8 Edition

RotoViz subscribers recently had the opportunity to win themselves a slot in the upcoming Scott Fish Bowl. All we asked for in return was their draft strategy. There’s plenty of meat on the bone over on the forums, but here’s what stood out to me.

Chase The Ceiling

All #SFB8 participants know their assigned draft slot, and are ostensibly planning how they’ll attack the draft.1 One of the submissions noted that top scoring team in #SFB8 will likely be carried by an elite running back capable of producing 2,000+ yards from scrimmage. Given their outsize usage in the passing game, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson fit the bill.  

Another submission indicated that in addition to drafting an elite RB, drafters should consider taking one of Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, or Jordan Reed.2 Considering that all four TEs garner a workload similar to elite wide receivers when healthy, this is a clever way to take advantage of the TE premium scoring.

Considering the sheer size of the contest, embracing a high-variance strategy is the key to victory. Drafting elite RBs and TEs with your high equity picks should supercharge your lineup, provided they remain healthy.

Drafters could opt to forego the above strategy, and embrace a wide receiver heavy approach instead. As one of our forum members noted, the supply of RBs has increased. It’s likely that drafters will find solid RB value in the later rounds of #SFB8, so feel free to chase the ceiling that Antonio Brown offers.

Don’t Overdraft Quarterbacks

Given the superflex nature of #SFB8, it’s important to have two quality quarterbacks as your starters. However, opportunity cost dictates that drafters should prioritize RBs over QBs. Drafters should consider taking three lower-tier QBs, once you use high-leverage picks on RBs.

It’s important to note that the penalty for interceptions and pick-sixes is fairly punitive. QBs are docked four points per interception, and an additional two points if the interception is returned for a touchdown. We can turn our attention to Dave Caban’s Fantasy Stat Explorer to locate QBs that aren’t particularly interception prone. Alex Smith’s ability to take care of the football, coupled with his rushing ability makes him an appealing pick.

Alex Smith Stats

Roster Construction

One of the submissions astutely noted that the best way to construct their roster is by weaponizing ADP. A rough outline of a competitive roster based on #SFB8 scoring is as follows:

  • 3-4 QB’s (probably 1 top 12 by ADP, 1-2 top 24, and maybe a late rounder)
  • 6-9 RB’s (2 top 24, 2-3 in the next general tier, 2-3 late rounders)
  • 6-9 WR’s (2 top 24, 2-3 in the next general tier, 2-3 late rounders)
  • 3-4 TE’s (1-2 top 12, 1-2 late rounder)

One of the submissions used Caban’s terrific Draft Dashboard to create a sample #SFB8 roster, and I’m planning on doing the same thing.

Antifragility in the Fish Bowl

Several submissions focused on constructing an anti-fragile roster. One submission recommended that gamers draft “injury prone” players. Considering that the “injury-prone” label is a myth, I’m inclined to agree. Additionally, the submission reminded us that projections are inherently flawed and contingency-based draft strategies can lead to success.

I’ll be utilizing Caban’s Projection Machine to create my initial draft board, but will deploy an anti-fragile strategy when the draft kicks off.

Playoffs!?!

 Scott Fish Bowl playoffs are not head to head. Instead, the teams with the highest scores advance to the next round. 

One of our submissions broke down the win probabilities by breaking the tournament down into three distinct phases.

SFB8 Playoff Probability

If you draft using the advice above, you’re on well on your way to putting together a competitive #SFB8 roster. 

And The Winner Is….

All entries to the competition were thoughtful and explored how to gain an edge during the #SFB8 draft. Unfortunately our winning entry had technical difficulties when submitting. Congratulations to our #SFB8 contest winner Ben Battle! Good luck in the Fish Bowl, and your post will be featured soon.

  1. It’s why we held the contest!  (back)
  2. Reed’s depressed ADP should allow you to snag other players.  (back)
By Hasan Rahim | @hrr5010 | Archive